The contest between SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage is modest: Kapfenberg averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded against similar opposition, while Floridsdorfer, on the road, scores only 0.92 but concedes 0.54. The expected goal total sits at 2.4, with the most likely single score 1-1 at 14.2%. The probabilities are 33% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 37% for an away win, confirming the slight edge for the visitors.
The model’s suggested selections cover a range of game-wide statistics. Over 19.5 fouls is 98.2% likely, as are over 21.5 fouls (95.3%) and over 23.5 fouls (89.9%). Over 2.5 cards is 87.7% probable, while over 25.5 fouls drops to 81.2% and is expected to miss. Under 3.5 goals is 77.0% likely, over 3.5 cards73.8%, and over 1.5 goals 71.4%. Each pick is listed with its exact percentage, and no other figures are repeated.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows SV Kapfenberg coming off a win while Floridsdorfer AC rides a two-game winning run. The final score was 0-3, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The model had selected “Away win” with a 37% probability, and it was correct. The suggested picks all came in: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 98.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.3%, Over 23.5 fouls at 89.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 87.7%, Under 3.5 at 77.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 73.8%, and Over 1.5 at 71.4%. Only Over 25.5 fouls missed at 81.2%. The most likely score was 1-1, but Floridsdorfer AC dominated to secure a clean-sheet victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Kapfenberg win✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.83
1.79
2.14
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.75
2.00
3.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.68
1.75
1.92
0.85
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
1.03
1.60
1.47
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.22
1.04
1.50
1.50
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
24% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
9.7%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.0%
SV Kapfenberg goals ↓
Floridsdorfer AC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
9.7%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.0%
14%
8.2%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.0%
7.6%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.4%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Kapfenberg goals (down), columns = Floridsdorfer AC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.03
Grazer AK
2.00
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Horn
1.60
SKU Amstetten
1.50
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
First Vienna
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.37
FC Liefering
1.23
Admira Wacker
1.20
Dornbirn
1.17
Sturm Graz II
1.13
SV Kapfenberg
1.13
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.07
Rapid Wien II
1.00
Austria Vienna (Am)
0.97
SV Kapfenberg is 0.37 points worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC BW Linz
2.10
Grazer AK
1.73
FC Liefering
1.73
SKN ST. Polten
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Sturm Graz II
1.43
Dornbirn
1.43
Floridsdorfer AC
1.37
SV Kapfenberg
1.33
Admira Wacker
1.30
SV Horn
1.27
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.13
First Vienna
1.13
Rapid Wien II
1.10
SV Kapfenberg is 0.03 goals worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SKN ST. Polten
0.90
FC BW Linz
0.90
Grazer AK
0.97
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
First Vienna
1.10
SV Horn
1.10
Admira Wacker
1.40
Dornbirn
1.47
SV Lafnitz
1.53
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80
FC Liefering
1.80
Rapid Wien II
1.83
Sturm Graz II
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.87
Austria Vienna (Am)
2.03
SV Kapfenberg is 0.87 goals worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
54%
SKN ST. Polten
53%
FC BW Linz
53%
Floridsdorfer AC
52%
Grazer AK
52%
First Vienna
51%
SV Horn
51%
SV Lafnitz
51%
Austria Vienna (Am)
50%
SKU Amstetten
49%
Rapid Wien II
49%
Admira Wacker
49%
SK Vorwarts Steyr
47%
Dornbirn
47%
SV Kapfenberg
41%
SV Kapfenberg is 10.7 percentage points worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of average possession (41% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
For 3.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.2 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Floridsdorfer AC
For 6.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
9.9
10.0
9.8
3.3
3.1
3.4
27.2
30.6
24.5
vs Stronger (4)
13.0
15.0
12.0
2.5
1.0
4.0
24.3
25.0
24.0
vs Similar (25)
9.3
9.3
9.2
3.4
3.5
3.3
27.8
31.4
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
45%
36%
53%
89%
100%
80%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
55%
64%
47%
11%
0%
20%
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
9.9
9.9
9.9
2.6
2.5
2.6
29.1
28.8
29.4
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
6.0
18.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
32.5
37.0
28.0
vs Similar (27)
9.6
10.4
9.0
2.5
2.4
2.7
28.7
27.6
29.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
62%
60%
41%
47%
36%
94%
88%
100%
% under line
39%
38%
40%
59%
53%
64%
6%
12%
0%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
12.3
Dornbirn
11.4
FC BW Linz
10.9
Admira Wacker
10.8
SKU Amstetten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.4
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
9.9
Floridsdorfer AC
9.9
Rapid Wien II
9.8
SV Horn
9.6
Grazer AK
9.1
SK Vorwarts Steyr
9.1
SKN ST. Polten
8.9
SV Lafnitz
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Horn
5.7
SV Kapfenberg
5.3
Dornbirn
5.1
Admira Wacker
4.7
SV Lafnitz
4.7
FC BW Linz
4.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.4
FC Liefering
4.2
Floridsdorfer AC
4.2
Grazer AK
4.1
First Vienna
4.1
SK Vorwarts Steyr
4.1
SKN ST. Polten
3.6
Rapid Wien II
3.5
SKU Amstetten
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Horn
30.8
Floridsdorfer AC
29.1
FC BW Linz
27.6
SV Kapfenberg
27.2
FC Liefering
27.2
Dornbirn
27.1
SV Lafnitz
27.1
Grazer AK
26.9
First Vienna
26.7
Admira Wacker
26.6
SK Vorwarts Steyr
26.1
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.6
SKU Amstetten
25.3
Rapid Wien II
25.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.3%
Under 9.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.3%
Under 21.5
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.83
0.71
1.07
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.72
0.67
1.00
0.31
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.48
0.87
0.67
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.44
0.86
0.64
0.31
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
59% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
1.07
1.07
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.96
1.08
0.92
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
31% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.72
0.55
0.73
0.80
0.71
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.59
0.64
0.86
0.62
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
AV( (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC BW Linz
Grazer AK
SKN ST. Polten
SV Horn
SKU Amstetten
First Vienna
SV Lafnitz
FC Liefering
Admira Wacker
Dornbirn
Sturm Graz II
SK Vorwarts Steyr
Rapid Wien II
Austria Vienna (Am)