SV Kapfenberg face SKN ST. Polten with the model favouring an away win, the most likely result according to the Pythia model. The expected total of goals is three, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.4% chance. Home form shows Kapfenberg scoring 1.73 and conceding 2.0 against similar opponents, while Polten, on the road, averages 1.85 goals scored and only 0.46 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 20% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 56% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 95.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 90.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.3%, Over 23.5 fouls at 81.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.1%, and Under 11.5 corners at 79.7%. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with Polten’s defensive solidity giving them the edge.
Results analysis
The win for SV Kapfenberg extended their brief revival, turning a pre-match favourite into an upset. The final score was 2-1, a home victory that left the model’s pick of an away win incorrect. The model had assigned a 56% probability to the away side, yet the match finished in favour of the hosts. Among the suggested selections, Over 19.5 fouls, Over 21.5 fouls, Over 2.5 cards, Over 23.5 fouls, and Over 1.5 all hit, each with probabilities of 95.7%, 90.2%, 83.3%, 81.3% and 81.1% respectively. The only miss was Under 11.5 corners, which carried a 79.7% chance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Kapfenberg win✓ Hit
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten win✗ Miss
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.81
1.77
2.23
1.00
1.43
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.75
2.00
3.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.65
1.73
2.00
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
15% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.78
0.85
1.71
1.21
1.85
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.78
0.85
1.71
1.21
1.85
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.2%
0-1
8.5%
1-3
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
0-3
5.9%
2-1 ✓
5.6%
SV Kapfenberg goals ↓
SKN ST. Polten goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
8.5%
9.2%
5.9%
2.8%
1
4.3%
11%
9.9%
6.3%
3.0%
2
2.9%
5.6%
5.4%
3.4%
1.6%
3
1.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Kapfenberg goals (down), columns = SKN ST. Polten goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.03
Grazer AK
2.00
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Horn
1.60
SKU Amstetten
1.50
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
First Vienna
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.37
FC Liefering
1.23
Admira Wacker
1.20
Dornbirn
1.17
Sturm Graz II
1.13
SV Kapfenberg
1.13
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.07
Rapid Wien II
1.00
Austria Vienna (Am)
0.97
SV Kapfenberg is 0.73 points worse than SKN ST. Polten in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC BW Linz
2.10
Grazer AK
1.73
FC Liefering
1.73
SKN ST. Polten
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Sturm Graz II
1.43
Dornbirn
1.43
Floridsdorfer AC
1.37
SV Kapfenberg
1.33
Admira Wacker
1.30
SV Horn
1.27
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.13
First Vienna
1.13
Rapid Wien II
1.10
SV Kapfenberg is 0.37 goals worse than SKN ST. Polten in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SKN ST. Polten
0.90
FC BW Linz
0.90
Grazer AK
0.97
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
First Vienna
1.10
SV Horn
1.10
Admira Wacker
1.40
Dornbirn
1.47
SV Lafnitz
1.53
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80
FC Liefering
1.80
Rapid Wien II
1.83
Sturm Graz II
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.87
Austria Vienna (Am)
2.03
SV Kapfenberg is 0.97 goals worse than SKN ST. Polten in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 0.90).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
54%
SKN ST. Polten
53%
FC BW Linz
53%
Floridsdorfer AC
52%
Grazer AK
52%
First Vienna
51%
SV Horn
51%
SV Lafnitz
51%
Austria Vienna (Am)
50%
SKU Amstetten
49%
Rapid Wien II
49%
Admira Wacker
49%
SK Vorwarts Steyr
47%
Dornbirn
47%
SV Kapfenberg
41%
SV Kapfenberg is 11.7 percentage points worse than SKN ST. Polten in terms of average possession (41% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
For 3.1 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 14.3 · Total 28.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SKN ST. Polten
For 4.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.2 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
10.1
9.7
10.3
2.9
2.5
3.2
27.4
31.0
24.6
vs Stronger (4)
13.0
15.0
12.0
2.5
1.0
4.0
24.3
25.0
24.0
vs Similar (23)
9.4
8.8
9.9
3.0
2.8
3.1
28.1
32.0
24.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
43%
56%
41%
31%
50%
88%
100%
78%
% under line
50%
57%
44%
59%
69%
50%
12%
0%
22%
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
8.6
9.0
8.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
23.3
23.0
23.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
8.6
9.0
8.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
23.3
23.0
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
38%
29%
19%
21%
15%
67%
62%
71%
% under line
67%
62%
71%
81%
79%
85%
33%
38%
29%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
13.1
Dornbirn
11.5
FC BW Linz
11.1
Admira Wacker
10.7
SKU Amstetten
10.6
FC Liefering
10.3
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.2
SV Kapfenberg
10.1
Rapid Wien II
10.0
Floridsdorfer AC
9.9
SV Horn
9.6
SK Vorwarts Steyr
9.4
Grazer AK
8.9
SV Lafnitz
8.7
SKN ST. Polten
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Horn
5.5
FC BW Linz
4.9
Dornbirn
4.9
SV Kapfenberg
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.8
SV Lafnitz
4.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.5
FC Liefering
4.2
Floridsdorfer AC
4.2
Grazer AK
4.2
First Vienna
4.1
SK Vorwarts Steyr
4.1
Rapid Wien II
3.7
SKU Amstetten
3.4
SKN ST. Polten
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Floridsdorfer AC
30.4
SV Horn
30.3
Grazer AK
27.5
SV Kapfenberg
27.4
FC BW Linz
27.4
SV Lafnitz
27.2
FC Liefering
27.2
Admira Wacker
26.6
Dornbirn
26.4
First Vienna
26.1
SKU Amstetten
25.7
SK Vorwarts Steyr
25.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.5
Rapid Wien II
24.9
SKN ST. Polten
23.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
42.1%
Under 9.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.7%
Under 3.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.2%
Under 21.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.78
0.69
1.08
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.65
0.64
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
41% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
0.22
0.86
0.29
0.77
0.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.22
0.86
0.29
0.77
0.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
78% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
1.04
1.08
1.15
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.78
1.00
1.09
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.63
0.86
0.93
1.08
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.96
0.63
0.86
0.93
1.08
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SV Kapfenberg's squad is €2m less valuable than SKN ST. Polten's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and SKN ST. Polten have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and SKN ST. Polten have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
AV( (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and SKN ST. Polten have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC BW Linz
Grazer AK
SV Horn
Floridsdorfer AC
SKU Amstetten
First Vienna
SV Lafnitz
FC Liefering
Admira Wacker
Dornbirn
Sturm Graz II
SK Vorwarts Steyr
Rapid Wien II
Austria Vienna (Am)