The model favours an away win, with a 43 % chance of SKU Amstetten taking the points, 32 % for SV Kapfenberg and 26 % for a draw. The expected total is 3.1 goals, yet the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 1-1 scoreline the single most probable outcome at 11.7 %. Kapfenberg, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. Amstetten, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.7 %), Under 5.5 (90.1 %), Over 2.5 cards (89.4 %), Away +2 handicap (84.9 %) and Over 1.5 (83.1 %). The home side’s recent form shows four straight defeats, while the visitors remain unbeaten in their last five.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Kapfenberg win
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten win
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.97
1.00
1.67
1.27
2.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
3.50
0.33
3.00
2.00
5.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.76
1.17
1.33
1.00
2.15
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (SKU Amstetten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKU Amstetten
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.27
1.60
1.07
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.44
1.26
1.54
0.92
1.36
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.9%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
1-0
6.0%
0-2
6.0%
SV Kapfenberg goals ↓
SKU Amstetten goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.6%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.0%
12%
8.7%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.1%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.5%
3.9%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Kapfenberg goals (down), columns = SKU Amstetten goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.40
Floridsdorfer AC
2.00
First Vienna
2.00
FC Liefering
2.00
Austria Salzburg
1.80
Wacker Innsbruck
1.80
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.80
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.40
Rapid Wien II
1.20
Sturm Graz II
1.20
Admira Wacker
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
Voitsberg
1.00
WSPG Wels
0.80
SKN ST. Polten
0.60
SV Kapfenberg
0.60
SV Kapfenberg is 0.60 points worse than SKU Amstetten in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Liefering
2.60
FC BW Linz
2.60
Sturm Graz II
2.00
Austria Salzburg
2.00
Floridsdorfer AC
1.80
First Vienna
1.80
Voitsberg
1.40
Wacker Innsbruck
1.40
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.20
SV Kapfenberg
1.20
Rapid Wien II
1.20
WSPG Wels
1.20
Admira Wacker
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
SKN ST. Polten
0.20
SV Kapfenberg and SKU Amstetten are level in goals scored per game (both 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC BW Linz
0.60
SKN ST. Polten
0.80
Wacker Innsbruck
1.00
Admira Wacker
1.00
Floridsdorfer AC
1.20
First Vienna
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.20
Austria Salzburg
1.40
FC Liefering
1.60
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.00
Voitsberg
2.00
WSPG Wels
2.00
Rapid Wien II
2.20
SV Kapfenberg
2.40
Sturm Graz II
2.60
SV Kapfenberg is 1.20 goals worse than SKU Amstetten in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
SKU Amstetten
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
19.9
22.0
18.2
vs Stronger (6)
8.5
11.0
6.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
14.5
17.0
12.0
vs Similar (42)
10.0
8.0
11.3
0.8
0.7
0.8
22.0
24.5
20.3
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
43%
67%
25%
12%
12%
12%
43%
67%
25%
% under line
57%
33%
75%
88%
88%
88%
57%
33%
75%
This opponent (SKU Amstetten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKU Amstetten
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
11.2
7.8
1.2
1.1
1.3
25.8
23.8
27.8
vs Stronger (5)
10.0
12.0
8.0
2.0
1.3
3.0
21.5
13.0
30.0
vs Similar (45)
9.4
11.0
7.8
1.1
1.0
1.1
26.9
26.5
27.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
80%
20%
18%
20%
16%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
50%
20%
80%
82%
80%
84%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Voitsberg
9.0
FC BW Linz
8.8
Admira Wacker
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
Voitsberg
5.7
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
FC BW Linz
4.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Voitsberg
25.3
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Admira Wacker
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
FC BW Linz
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.2%
Under 9.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.6%
Under 3.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.7%
Under 21.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SV Kapfenberg or Draw
60.8%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers SV Kapfenberg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg or SKU Amstetten
73.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers SV Kapfenberg + SKU Amstetten
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or SKU Amstetten
65.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Draw + SKU Amstetten
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SV Kapfenberg, so a minus line means SV Kapfenberg give that many goals of a start and SKU Amstetten receive them. At -1, SV Kapfenberg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SV Kapfenberg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SV Kapfenberg)
SV Kapfenberg -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.4%
SKU Amstetten +2
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (SV Kapfenberg)
SV Kapfenberg -1
16.5%
Draw -1
17.8%
SKU Amstetten +1
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (SV Kapfenberg)
SV Kapfenberg +1
60.8%
Draw +1
19.3%
SKU Amstetten -1
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (SV Kapfenberg)
SV Kapfenberg +2
80.0%
Draw +2
12.0%
SKU Amstetten -2
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.23
0.40
1.07
0.40
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.75
0.33
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (25)
0.36
1.04
0.42
0.83
0.31
1.23
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (SKU Amstetten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKU Amstetten
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.27
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.52
0.69
0.23
0.50
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.72
0.75
0.50
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (SKU Amstetten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKU Amstetten
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.80
0.80
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.74
0.85
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKU Amstetten over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
AS (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
WW (19)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SV Kapfenberg and SKU Amstetten have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
WW (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
AS (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and SKU Amstetten have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
WW (4)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
AS (4)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and SKU Amstetten have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AV( (11)
€2m
AS (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
WW (8)
€1m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and SKU Amstetten have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC BW Linz
FC Liefering
First Vienna
Floridsdorfer AC
Austria Salzburg
Wacker Innsbruck
Austria Vienna (Am)
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Admira Wacker
Sturm Graz II
Rapid Wien II
Voitsberg
WSPG Wels
SKN ST. Polten