SV Kapfenberg are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win and a 50% chance of victory. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, with the most likely total being two goals, a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Kapfenberg’s home form shows they average 2.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded against teams of similar strength, while WSPG Wels, playing away, have not scored in their last five matches and average 1.0 goal conceded per game against comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 90.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 83.0% (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 80.2%, Over 3.5 cards at 77.9%, and Under 11.5 corners at 77.3%. The probabilities for the match result are 50% home win, 25% draw, and 25% away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Kapfenberg’s recent run, giving the home side a bright start to the season. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 50% probability, and it proved correct as Kapfenberg edged Wels 3-2. The model also called Over 1.5 goals, a 83% selection that hit, with the match tallying five goals. The most likely scoreline was 2-1, but the actual 3-2 result still saw the home team triumph. The predicted total of 3.1 goals was close to the five-goal outcome, and the model’s choice of a home win was validated by the final result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Kapfenberg win✓ Hit
50.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.67
2.43
1.79
1.06
1.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.88
1.64
2.67
1.83
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
WSPG Wels
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.22
0.60
1.40
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
22% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
5.4%
SV Kapfenberg goals ↓
WSPG Wels goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.5%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.1%
11%
6.6%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.7%
6.0%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.2%
2.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Kapfenberg goals (down), columns = WSPG Wels goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SKN ST. Polten
1.93
Austria Lustenau
1.90
Admira Wacker
1.76
Floridsdorfer AC
1.71
FC Liefering
1.66
SKU Amstetten
1.57
First Vienna
1.48
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.38
Austria Salzburg
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Rapid Wien II
1.21
WSPG Wels
1.14
SV Kapfenberg
1.07
Stripfing
0.83
Sturm Graz II
0.76
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.66
SV Kapfenberg is 0.07 points worse than WSPG Wels in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Admira Wacker
1.76
SKN ST. Polten
1.62
FC Liefering
1.62
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
Austria Lustenau
1.48
SKU Amstetten
1.46
WSPG Wels
1.34
Stripfing
1.33
Austria Salzburg
1.29
Rapid Wien II
1.28
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.24
Austria Klagenfurt
1.17
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.17
SV Kapfenberg
1.10
First Vienna
1.10
Sturm Graz II
1.00
SV Kapfenberg is 0.24 goals worse than WSPG Wels in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Floridsdorfer AC
0.64
First Vienna
0.86
SKN ST. Polten
0.93
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Admira Wacker
1.00
SKU Amstetten
1.21
Austria Salzburg
1.32
WSPG Wels
1.41
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.41
FC Liefering
1.41
Austria Klagenfurt
1.52
Rapid Wien II
1.55
Sturm Graz II
1.69
SV Kapfenberg
1.83
Stripfing
1.92
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.07
SV Kapfenberg is 0.41 goals worse than WSPG Wels in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
53%
Austria Lustenau
47%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
For 4.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
WSPG Wels
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.7
10.8
3.8
4.0
3.7
24.1
23.6
24.5
vs Stronger (7)
11.0
12.8
7.5
3.6
4.2
2.7
22.0
22.2
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.0
8.7
11.3
4.0
3.9
4.2
24.5
24.1
24.9
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
48%
50%
47%
54%
58%
50%
69%
69%
69%
% under line
52%
50%
53%
46%
42%
50%
31%
31%
31%
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
WSPG Wels
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Austria Klagenfurt
9.4
Austria Lustenau
9.3
Admira Wacker
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
Austria Klagenfurt
5.1
Austria Lustenau
5.0
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Austria Lustenau
23.3
Admira Wacker
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
Austria Klagenfurt
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
77.9%
Under 3.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.2%
Under 21.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
1.07
0.50
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.52
1.25
0.50
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
WSPG Wels
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.67
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.17
1.36
1.29
0.50
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.12
1.42
1.33
0.54
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
WSPG Wels
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.56
0.20
0.40
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
AS (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
WW (19)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SV Kapfenberg and WSPG Wels have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
WW (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
AS (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and WSPG Wels have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
WW (4)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
AS (4)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and WSPG Wels have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AV( (11)
€2m
AS (11)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
WW (8)
€1m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and WSPG Wels have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
SKN ST. Polten
Austria Lustenau
Admira Wacker
Floridsdorfer AC
FC Liefering
SKU Amstetten
First Vienna
Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria Salzburg
Austria Klagenfurt
Rapid Wien II
Sturm Graz II
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Stripfing