This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.47
0.93
0.67
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (23)
1.04
1.17
1.38
0.85
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.1%
Under 1.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.6%
@ 2.16-2.4%
Under 2.5
58.4%
@ 1.70+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.0%
No
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.2%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
12.3%
0-0
10.7%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
4.9%
Swansea goals ↓
Derby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.0%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.1%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
6.6%
4.9%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.6%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swansea goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fulham
1.96
Bournemouth
1.91
Huddersfield
1.78
Nottingham Forest
1.74
Luton
1.63
Sheffield United
1.63
Middlesbrough
1.52
Blackburn
1.50
Millwall
1.50
West Brom
1.46
QPR
1.43
Coventry
1.39
Preston
1.39
Stoke
1.35
Swansea
1.33
Blackpool
1.30
Bristol City
1.20
Derby
1.20
Cardiff
1.15
Hull
1.11
Reading
1.02
Birmingham
1.02
Peterboro
0.80
Barnsley
0.65
Swansea is 0.13 points better than Derby in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fulham
2.30
Bournemouth
1.61
Nottingham Forest
1.59
Huddersfield
1.39
Luton
1.37
Sheffield United
1.37
Bristol City
1.35
Coventry
1.30
QPR
1.30
Middlesbrough
1.28
Blackburn
1.28
Swansea
1.26
Stoke
1.24
Reading
1.17
Blackpool
1.17
Millwall
1.15
Preston
1.13
West Brom
1.13
Birmingham
1.09
Cardiff
1.09
Derby
0.98
Peterboro
0.93
Hull
0.89
Barnsley
0.72
Swansea is 0.28 goals better than Derby in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 0.98).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bournemouth
0.85
Nottingham Forest
0.87
Fulham
0.93
Millwall
0.98
West Brom
0.98
Sheffield United
0.98
Huddersfield
1.02
Middlesbrough
1.09
Blackburn
1.09
Stoke
1.13
Derby
1.15
Hull
1.17
Luton
1.20
Preston
1.22
Blackpool
1.26
Coventry
1.28
QPR
1.28
Swansea
1.48
Cardiff
1.48
Barnsley
1.59
Birmingham
1.63
Bristol City
1.67
Reading
1.89
Peterboro
1.89
Swansea is 0.33 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swansea
64%
Fulham
61%
Sheffield United
57%
Bournemouth
57%
QPR
54%
Coventry
53%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Derby
51%
Nottingham Forest
50%
Preston
50%
Middlesbrough
49%
Huddersfield
48%
Peterboro
48%
Reading
48%
Millwall
46%
Hull
46%
Blackpool
46%
Cardiff
45%
Barnsley
45%
Blackburn
45%
Bristol City
45%
Luton
44%
Birmingham
44%
Swansea is 12.7 percentage points better than Derby in terms of average possession (64% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swansea
For 3.5 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
For 5.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swansea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.8
9.0
3.5
3.8
3.3
21.9
21.7
22.0
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
-
12.0
3.0
-
3.0
23.5
-
23.5
vs Similar (39)
9.1
9.2
8.9
3.6
3.9
3.3
22.0
21.7
22.3
vs Weaker (9)
7.7
7.0
8.2
3.1
3.0
3.2
20.9
21.8
20.2
% over line
50%
48%
52%
42%
52%
33%
46%
48%
44%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
58%
48%
67%
54%
52%
56%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.0
3.9
4.0
3.8
22.0
22.2
21.8
vs Stronger (8)
10.0
11.8
8.2
3.6
2.5
4.8
20.5
16.8
24.2
vs Similar (39)
9.1
9.2
9.1
4.0
4.3
3.7
22.4
23.4
21.3
vs Weaker (3)
8.3
6.0
9.5
3.0
4.0
2.5
21.0
20.0
21.5
% over line
50%
56%
44%
56%
64%
48%
50%
56%
44%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
44%
36%
52%
50%
44%
56%
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Middlesbrough
10.9
West Brom
10.4
Fulham
10.3
Sheffield United
10.1
QPR
10.0
Luton
9.9
Bournemouth
9.9
Stoke
9.9
Millwall
9.9
Coventry
9.8
Bristol City
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.6
Hull
9.6
Barnsley
9.5
Cardiff
9.4
Preston
9.2
Peterboro
9.2
Derby
9.2
Huddersfield
9.2
Blackburn
9.1
Blackpool
9.1
Reading
9.0
Swansea
8.9
Birmingham
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nottingham Forest
4.2
Blackburn
4.2
Middlesbrough
4.0
Derby
3.9
Bournemouth
3.9
Coventry
3.8
Cardiff
3.7
Stoke
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Reading
3.6
Peterboro
3.6
Preston
3.5
Swansea
3.5
Luton
3.4
QPR
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Fulham
3.4
Hull
3.4
Huddersfield
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Sheffield United
3.3
Millwall
3.2
Bristol City
3.1
Birmingham
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Middlesbrough
23.4
Reading
23.3
Nottingham Forest
23.3
Peterboro
22.8
Luton
22.8
Birmingham
22.6
Coventry
22.4
Preston
22.3
Bournemouth
22.2
Blackburn
22.2
Blackpool
22.1
Cardiff
22.0
West Brom
22.0
Derby
22.0
Swansea
21.9
QPR
21.9
Barnsley
21.8
Stoke
21.7
Millwall
21.4
Hull
21.4
Bristol City
21.0
Fulham
20.9
Huddersfield
20.1
Sheffield United
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.8%
Under 9.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.7%
Under 3.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.7%
Under 21.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swansea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.69
0.31
0.29
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.55
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
1.67
0.67
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.48
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swansea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
0.92
1.00
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.77
1.10
1.10
0.58
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
0.33
0.67
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
1.07
0.40
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.70
1.00
0.46
0.10
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swansea · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joseph Opoku50%
A. Idah40%
Ji-sung Eom40%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Lissah40%
M. Widell40%
J. Fulton20%
J. Tymon20%
Elijah Just20%
M. Stamenić20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
S. Welsh0%
Ben Cabango0%
A. Idah0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
Ji-sung Eom0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ji-sung Eom40%
J. Tymon20%
A. Idah20%
Z. Vipotnik20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Idah40%
Z. Vipotnik20%
Ji-sung Eom20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Derby · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOU (31)
€573m
NFO (28)
€551m
FUL (21)
€329m
COV (27)
€237m
MID (29)
€142m
SHU (27)
€110m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
HUD (26)
€16m
BLA (22)
€11m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
PET (23)
€7m
Swansea's squad is €34m more valuable than Derby's (€91m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
FUL (9)
€178m
COV (8)
€85m
MID (12)
€74m
SWA (13)
€56m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
LUT (10)
€13m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
BAR (5)
€2m
Swansea's attack is €31m more valuable than Derby's (€56m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOU (6)
€106m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
SHU (5)
€32m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BLB (7)
€7m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PET (5)
€1m
Swansea's midfield is €4m less valuable than Derby's (€9m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NFO (15)
€236m
BOU (14)
€182m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CAR (10)
€10m
HUD (13)
€8m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
Swansea's defence is €8m more valuable than Derby's (€26m vs €18m).
England: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Fulham
Bournemouth
Huddersfield
Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United
Luton
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
Millwall
West Brom
QPR
Coventry
Preston
Stoke
Blackpool
Bristol City
Cardiff
Hull
Birmingham
Reading
Peterboro
Barnsley