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Swansea vs Derby Result & Analysis

Date: 25/11/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 1-2
Swansea
Swansea
Vs
41%
31%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Derby
Derby
England: Championship
Referee: A Kitchen

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Swansea win✗ Miss
40.8%
Avg Implied 42.4% · @ 2.21
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.03
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Derby win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.52
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SwanseaSwansea

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W13L00D01L21W13L11D12L14L03LA·BLA30/09H·LEI04/10A·SOU18/10H·QPR22/10H·NOR25/10H·MAN29/10A·CHA01/11A·PRE05/11H·IPS08/11A·BRI22/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.301.471.470.851.08
vs Stronger (4)1.252.251.003.501.501.00
vs Similar (25)1.121.161.431.210.731.09
vs Weaker (1)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D11D01L10W10W31W21W21W23LA·WRE27/09H·CHA30/09H·SOU04/10A·OXF18/10H·NOR21/10H·QPR25/10A·SHE01/11H·HUL04/11A·BLA08/11H·WAT22/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.131.201.001.401.27
vs Stronger (4)2.002.002.502.501.501.50
vs Similar (26)1.191.001.000.771.381.23
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.8%
@ 2.51+1.5%
Under 2.5
61.2%
@ 1.49-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.0%
1-0
12.0%
0-1
9.3%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
1-2 ✓
6.5%
0-2
5.2%
Swansea goals ↓
Derby goals →
01234
012%9.3%5.2%1.7%0.4%
112%15%6.5%2.2%0.5%
28.3%8.2%4.1%1.3%0.3%
33.4%3.4%1.7%0.6%0.1%
41.1%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swansea goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Coventry
2.07
Ipswich
1.83
Millwall
1.75
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Hull
1.63
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Swansea
1.39
Birmingham
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Preston
1.30
Sheffield United
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Portsmouth
1.20
Stoke
1.20
Charlton
1.15
West Brom
1.15
Leicester
1.13
Blackburn
1.13
Oxford
1.02
Sheffield Weds
0.39
Swansea is 0.11 points worse than Derby in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coventry
2.11
Ipswich
1.74
Southampton
1.73
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Hull
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Leicester
1.26
Swansea
1.24
Birmingham
1.24
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Oxford
0.98
Charlton
0.96
Blackburn
0.91
Sheffield Weds
0.63
Swansea is 0.22 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Coventry
0.98
Middlesbrough
1.00
Ipswich
1.02
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Norwich
1.22
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Stoke
1.22
Charlton
1.26
West Brom
1.26
Oxford
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Bristol City
1.28
Derby
1.28
Hull
1.35
Preston
1.35
Portsmouth
1.39
Watford
1.41
Wrexham
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
Leicester
1.48
QPR
1.59
Sheffield Weds
1.93
Swansea and Derby are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Ipswich
56%
Coventry
55%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Leicester
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Hull
45%
Sheffield Weds
45%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Oxford
40%
Swansea is 10.2 percentage points better than Derby in terms of average possession (55% vs 44%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

SwanseaSwansea

For 4.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.1

🚩 Corners

11065458274382363352537119101111598710A·BRIH·IPSA·PREA·CHAH·MANH·NORH·QPRA·SOUH·LEIA·BLA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

8025313113124421232840246435A·BRIH·IPSA·PREA·CHAH·MANH·NORH·QPRA·SOUH·LEIA·BLA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.2 · Total 21.0

⚠️ Fouls

28071013145128107813128914111011131517271718152517252128A·BRIH·IPSA·PREA·CHAH·MANH·NORH·QPRA·SOUH·LEIA·BLA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DerbyDerby

For 5.5 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.5

🚩 Corners

180933136549525131243552341216111371816877H·WATA·BLAH·HULA·SHEH·QPRH·NORA·OXFH·SOUH·CHAA·WRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

602131112222114422513413435626H·WATA·BLAH·HULA·SHEH·QPRH·NORA·OXFH·SOUH·CHAA·WRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 9.2 · Total 21.1

⚠️ Fouls

25081511613711101310137129119111016923172021232021202125H·WATA·BLAH·HULA·SHEH·QPRH·NORA·OXFH·SOUH·CHAA·WRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SwanseaSwansea

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.28.99.63.63.93.223.122.723.6
vs Stronger (5)8.08.77.05.45.06.025.222.729.0
vs Similar (44)9.28.69.83.43.83.023.023.023.1
vs Weaker (1)15.015.0-2.02.0-18.018.0-
% over line41%41%41%48%48%48%59%59%59%
% under line59%59%59%52%52%52%41%41%41%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.99.610.23.43.23.621.121.221.0
vs Stronger (7)10.611.59.34.33.55.321.720.823.0
vs Similar (43)9.79.210.33.33.13.421.021.320.8
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line49%44%54%38%36%40%45%44%46%
% under line51%56%46%62%64%60%55%56%54%
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Coventry
11.1
Sheffield Weds
10.9
Oxford
10.7
Portsmouth
10.6
Sheffield United
10.5
Norwich
10.4
QPR
10.2
Hull
10.2
Leicester
10.1
Ipswich
10.1
Stoke
10.1
Millwall
10.1
Blackburn
9.9
West Brom
9.9
Derby
9.9
Southampton
9.9
Watford
9.8
Middlesbrough
9.8
Preston
9.8
Bristol City
9.5
Wrexham
9.4
Birmingham
9.2
Swansea
9.2
Charlton
8.7

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Portsmouth
4.2
Ipswich
4.1
Southampton
4.1
Stoke
3.9
QPR
3.9
Birmingham
3.8
Norwich
3.8
Leicester
3.7
Sheffield United
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Swansea
3.6
Preston
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Derby
3.5
Charlton
3.5
Blackburn
3.5
Oxford
3.5
Hull
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Sheffield Weds
3.4
Bristol City
3.3
Wrexham
3.3
Millwall
2.9

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Birmingham
23.7
Southampton
23.6
Blackburn
23.4
Millwall
23.4
Swansea
23.3
Portsmouth
23.2
QPR
22.9
Sheffield Weds
22.8
Charlton
22.7
Ipswich
22.6
Sheffield United
22.4
Norwich
22.1
Watford
22.0
Middlesbrough
21.9
Preston
21.7
Hull
21.6
Leicester
21.5
West Brom
21.3
Oxford
21.3
Derby
21.1
Stoke
20.9
Coventry
20.6
Wrexham
20.3
Bristol City
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.7%
Under 9.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.8%
Under 3.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
52.9%
Under 21.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SwanseaSwansea

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D01L11D11D00D01L01L02LA·BLA30/09H·LEI04/10A·SOU18/10H·QPR22/10H·NOR25/10H·MAN29/10A·CHA01/11A·PRE05/11H·IPS08/11A·BRI22/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.700.590.820.150.54
vs Stronger (4)0.250.750.501.000.000.50
vs Similar (25)0.400.720.570.860.180.55
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D01L00D10W10W10W20W10WA·WRE27/09H·CHA30/09H·SOU04/10A·OXF18/10H·NOR21/10H·QPR25/10A·SHE01/11H·HUL04/11A·BLA08/11H·WAT22/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.400.600.530.530.27
vs Stronger (4)0.750.751.501.000.000.50
vs Similar (26)0.540.350.460.460.620.23
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SwanseaSwansea

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L00D00D10W02L11D11D13L01LA·BLA30/09H·LEI04/10A·SOU18/10H·QPR22/10H·NOR25/10H·MAN29/10A·CHA01/11A·PRE05/11H·IPS08/11A·BRI22/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.880.650.690.54
vs Stronger (4)1.001.500.502.501.500.50
vs Similar (25)0.720.440.860.360.550.55
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D00D10W00D21W11D01L13LA·WRE27/09H·CHA30/09H·SOU04/10A·OXF18/10H·NOR21/10H·QPR25/10A·SHE01/11H·HUL04/11A·BLA08/11H·WAT22/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.600.470.871.00
vs Stronger (4)1.251.251.001.501.501.00
vs Similar (26)0.650.650.540.310.771.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards84.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.581.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls77.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners71.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards71.3%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Swansea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žan Vipotnik43%
Adam Idah19%
Bobby Wales17%
Liam Cullen12%
Ronald10%
Leo Walta10%
Ethan Galbraith9%
Gonçalo Franco8%
Marko Stamenić8%
Ji-sung Eom6%
Josh Key6%
Zeidane Inoussa3%
Jay Fulton3%
Malick Yalcouyé3%
Ben Cabango2%
Josh Tymon2%
Cameron Burgess2%
Lawrence Vigouroux0%
Manuel Benson0%
Joel Ward0%
Andrew Fisher0%
Kaelan Casey0%
Ishé Samuels-Smith0%
Melker Widell0%
Samuel Parker0%
Gustavo Nunes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marko Stamenić34%
Ishé Samuels-Smith25%
Josh Tymon20%
Jay Fulton18%
Ben Cabango17%
Gonçalo Franco16%
Ethan Galbraith16%
Cameron Burgess16%
Melker Widell14%
Zeidane Inoussa14%
Josh Key12%
Liam Cullen12%
Malick Yalcouyé8%
Ronald8%
Adam Idah7%
Joel Ward6%
Ji-sung Eom6%
Žan Vipotnik4%
Lawrence Vigouroux2%
Manuel Benson0%
Andrew Fisher0%
Leo Walta0%
Kaelan Casey0%
Bobby Wales0%
Samuel Parker0%
Gustavo Nunes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Tymon20%
Bobby Wales17%
Ishé Samuels-Smith12%
Ronald10%
Josh Key9%
Gustavo Nunes8%
Marko Stamenić8%
Kaelan Casey8%
Adam Idah7%
Zeidane Inoussa7%
Ji-sung Eom6%
Gonçalo Franco6%
Žan Vipotnik6%
Malick Yalcouyé6%
Melker Widell5%
Liam Cullen2%
Ethan Galbraith2%
Lawrence Vigouroux0%
Manuel Benson0%
Joel Ward0%
Jay Fulton0%
Cameron Burgess0%
Andrew Fisher0%
Ben Cabango0%
Leo Walta0%
Samuel Parker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Žan Vipotnik18%
Ji-sung Eom10%
Adam Idah7%
Ethan Galbraith5%
Josh Tymon4%
Liam Cullen2%
Melker Widell2%
Gonçalo Franco2%
Ronald2%
Lawrence Vigouroux0%
Manuel Benson0%
Josh Key0%
Joel Ward0%
Jay Fulton0%
Cameron Burgess0%
Andrew Fisher0%
Ben Cabango0%
Leo Walta0%
Marko Stamenić0%
Zeidane Inoussa0%
Kaelan Casey0%
Ishé Samuels-Smith0%
Bobby Wales0%
Samuel Parker0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Gustavo Nunes0%
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Carlton Morris32%
Patrick Agyemang24%
Sammie Szmodics23%
Rhian Brewster23%
Jaydon Banel21%
Ben Brereton Díaz17%
Sondre Langås12%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen9%
Bobby Clark9%
Matthew Clarke7%
David Ozoh6%
Liam Thompson6%
Oscar Fraulo5%
Joe Ward5%
Craig Forsyth5%
Ebou Adams4%
Andreas Weimann4%
Callum Elder3%
Dion Sanderson2%
Josh Vickers0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Lewis Travis0%
Danny Batth0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Derry Murkin0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Max Johnston0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis39%
Sammie Szmodics38%
Ebou Adams35%
Callum Elder30%
Liam Thompson28%
Dion Sanderson20%
Oscar Fraulo20%
David Ozoh20%
Matthew Clarke20%
Ben Brereton Díaz20%
Bobby Clark18%
Carlton Morris16%
Sondre Langås16%
Patrick Agyemang16%
Ryan Nyambe14%
Josh Vickers11%
Kayden Jackson10%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen9%
Craig Forsyth9%
Danny Batth8%
Derry Murkin8%
Andreas Weimann7%
Joe Ward7%
Jaydon Banel7%
Max Johnston7%
Rhian Brewster3%
Jacob Widell Zetterström3%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Callum Elder20%
Joe Ward20%
Derry Murkin17%
Andreas Weimann11%
Corey Blackett-Taylor10%
Matthew Clarke9%
Patrick Agyemang8%
Sammie Szmodics8%
Ben Brereton Díaz7%
Max Johnston7%
Bobby Clark7%
Rhian Brewster6%
Carlton Morris6%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen6%
Sondre Langås4%
Lewis Travis4%
Josh Vickers0%
Ebou Adams0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Danny Batth0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Dion Sanderson0%
Liam Thompson0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Dajaune Brown0%
David Ozoh0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Agyemang18%
Carlton Morris10%
Sammie Szmodics8%
Ben Brereton Díaz5%
Matthew Clarke4%
Sondre Langås4%
Rhian Brewster3%
Bobby Clark2%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen0%
Josh Vickers0%
Ebou Adams0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Andreas Weimann0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Lewis Travis0%
Danny Batth0%
Callum Elder0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Joe Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Derry Murkin0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Dion Sanderson0%
Liam Thompson0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Max Johnston0%
Dajaune Brown0%
David Ozoh0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
Swansea's squad is €34m more valuable than Derby's (€91m vs €57m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
Swansea's attack is €31m more valuable than Derby's (€56m vs €25m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
Swansea's midfield is €4m less valuable than Derby's (€9m vs €14m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
Swansea's defence is €8m more valuable than Derby's (€26m vs €18m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
SWA wins
1
Draws
1
DER wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Swansea vs Derby · H/A from SWA
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/25HSWA Vs Derby1-0
27/11/24ADerby Vs SWA1-2
09/04/22HSWA Vs Derby2-1
02/10/21ADerby Vs SWA0-0
01/05/21HSWA Vs Derby2-1
16/12/20ADerby Vs SWA2-0

SwanseaSwansea

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25ABristol City Vs SWA3-0
08/11/25HSWA Vs Ipswich1-4
05/11/25APreston Vs SWA2-1
01/11/25ACharlton Vs SWA1-1
29/10/25HSWA Vs Manchester City1-3
25/10/25HSWA Vs Norwich2-1
22/10/25HSWA Vs QPR0-1
18/10/25ASouthampton Vs SWA0-0
04/10/25HSWA Vs Leicester1-3
30/09/25ABlackburn Vs SWA1-2

DerbyDerby

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HDER Vs Watford2-3
08/11/25ABlackburn Vs DER1-2
04/11/25HDER Vs Hull2-1
01/11/25ASheffield United Vs DER1-3
25/10/25HDER Vs QPR1-0
21/10/25HDER Vs Norwich1-0
18/10/25AOxford Vs DER1-0
04/10/25HDER Vs Southampton1-1
30/09/25HDER Vs Charlton1-1
27/09/25AWrexham Vs DER1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Swansea
Swansea
England: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.26
HomeLLWLL1.48
AwayWDDLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%41%26%
AVG goals2.622.852.35
Over 1.5 %72%78%65%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %26%33%17%
Scored1.161.480.78
Conceded1.461.371.57
BTTS52%59%43%
Clean Sheet24%26%22%
Corners9.188.859.59
Cards3.633.853.36
Derby
Derby
England: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.12
HomeDWWWL1.20
AwayWDLWW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.342.082.60
Over 1.5 %64%56%72%
Over 2.5 %40%32%48%
Over 3.5 %22%12%32%
Scored1.081.041.12
Conceded1.261.041.48
BTTS52%40%64%
Clean Sheet22%32%12%
Corners9.869.5610.17
Cards3.473.203.75

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CoventryCoventry4695
61%
2.1
9745+52
3.1
83%
63%
37%
9.6
41%
3.7
48%
20.8
43%
237
8552992.11.0
55%
2IpswichIpswich4684
50%
1.8
8047+33
2.8
85%
52%
26%
9.6
39%
4.4
63%
24.5
72%
280
13066851.71.0
56%
3MillwallMillwall4884
50%
1.8
6451+13
2.4
79%
46%
21%
11.1
56%
3.6
46%
21.0
35%
85
3029251.31.1
48%
4SouthamptonSouthampton4882
46%
1.7
8357+26
2.9
85%
60%
33%
10.7
62%
4.1
62%
22.8
58%
205
7253791.71.2
56%
5MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough4982
45%
1.7
7349+24
2.5
67%
51%
29%
11.0
57%
3.8
55%
21.8
49%
142
7427411.51.0
59%
6HullHull4980
47%
1.6
7366+7
2.8
76%
61%
35%
10.3
61%
4.2
59%
21.2
41%
105
2231521.51.3
45%
7WrexhamWrexham4671
41%
1.5
6965+4
2.9
83%
50%
33%
9.9
50%
3.4
50%
19.2
30%
77
1523391.51.4
48%
8DerbyDerby4669
43%
1.5
6759+8
2.7
76%
52%
24%
10.0
48%
4.2
57%
22.9
61%
57
2514181.51.3
44%
9NorwichNorwich4665
41%
1.4
6356+7
2.6
83%
48%
15%
10.3
59%
3.9
59%
21.2
41%
107
4631291.41.2
54%
10BirminghamBirmingham4664
37%
1.4
5756+1
2.5
78%
46%
17%
9.9
50%
3.8
48%
22.1
48%
93
4612351.21.2
54%
11SwanseaSwansea4664
39%
1.4
5759-2
2.5
76%
50%
20%
9.9
50%
4.1
63%
22.7
61%
91
569261.21.3
55%
12Bristol CityBristol City4662
37%
1.3
5959+0
2.6
72%
46%
26%
9.9
52%
3.8
57%
21.3
48%
66
2919181.31.3
49%
13Sheffield UnitedSheffield United4660
39%
1.3
6666+0
2.9
74%
59%
33%
11.7
70%
4.1
57%
21.5
43%
110
2932491.41.4
52%
14PrestonPreston4660
33%
1.3
5562-7
2.5
80%
48%
24%
10.8
59%
3.4
48%
19.9
28%
43
173221.21.3
46%
15QPRQPR4658
35%
1.3
6173-12
2.9
76%
63%
37%
10.0
50%
3.7
57%
20.5
41%
71
2915271.31.6
46%
16WatfordWatford4657
30%
1.2
5365-12
2.6
80%
48%
24%
10.2
57%
4.5
57%
21.2
41%
88
2838221.21.4
51%
17StokeStoke4655
33%
1.2
5156-5
2.3
70%
43%
20%
10.8
59%
4.0
43%
20.3
39%
79
3511321.11.2
52%
18PortsmouthPortsmouth4655
30%
1.2
4964-15
2.5
67%
43%
24%
10.7
65%
4.0
50%
21.8
57%
32
135141.11.4
50%
19West BromWest Brom4653
28%
1.2
4858-10
2.3
67%
46%
17%
9.1
43%
3.4
39%
20.8
41%
52
1522151.01.3
52%
20CharltonCharlton4653
28%
1.2
4458-14
2.2
67%
39%
15%
9.7
48%
3.6
48%
21.6
48%
31
183101.01.3
42%
21LeicesterLeicester4652
26%
1.1
5868-10
2.7
85%
54%
28%
11.1
63%
3.6
41%
21.7
50%
69
2013361.31.5
52%
22BlackburnBlackburn4652
28%
1.1
4256-14
2.1
70%
39%
13%
10.4
59%
3.8
54%
20.7
43%
36
157140.91.2
48%
23OxfordOxford4647
24%
1.0
4559-14
2.3
67%
46%
20%
11.2
70%
3.4
43%
21.6
46%
20
6681.01.3
40%
24Sheffield WedsSheffield Weds4618
4%
0.4
2989-60
2.6
80%
52%
24%
10.4
54%
3.0
41%
21.7
50%
21
7680.61.9
45%
England: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →

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