Swansea's recent 2-game winning run is a significant storyline heading into their match against Sheffield United. The model suggests a home win as the most likely result, with a 48% probability, outpacing the 29% draw probability and 22% away win probability.
The expected total goals stands at 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 13.7% probability. Swansea's home form is impressive, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding 0.92 at home, particularly against similar opponents. Sheffield United, on the other hand, scores 1.15 goals and concedes 1.0 on the road against similar opponents.
The model's selections include an Under 3.5 goal total, occurring with a 78.9% probability and an edge of 10%, and a Home or Away win, occurring with a 71.0% probability. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 22%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Swansea, failed to materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that kept the team unbeaten in their last five. The model’s call was wrong, with a 49 % probability for a Swansea victory. The final score of 0-0 matched the expected total of 2.4 goals, though the most likely total of 2 goals did not occur. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0 %), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.6 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swansea win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.43
Edge
+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.54
Betfair
2.50
Dafabet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.31
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.46
Dafabet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Sheffield United win✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.85
Edge
-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Dafabet
2.90
888Sport
2.90
Superbet
2.87
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swansea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.53
0.93
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.38
1.10
1.53
0.93
1.21
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.40
1.88
1.62
1.29
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.37
1.79
1.50
1.15
1.23
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.67
2.50
2.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.27-3.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
@ 3.57+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.93
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Betano
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 1.88-7.3%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.90+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
@ 3.11-8.0%
Under 3.5
77.9%
@ 1.34+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Superbet
3.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.7%
@ 1.66-8.4%
No
52.3%
@ 2.12+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
No
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.13
William Hil
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.01+6.1%
1-0
12.2%@ 8.21+6.6%
0-0 ✓
10.3%@ 9.68+5.6%
2-0
9.9%@ 11.71+6.0%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.74+3.9%
0-1
7.1%@ 9.00+2.1%
1-2
5.7%@ 9.60+1.0%
3-0
4.9%@ 23.36+2.9%
Swansea goals ↓
Sheffield United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.1%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.1%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.9%
4.5%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swansea goals (down), columns = Sheffield United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Swansea is 0.09 points better than Sheffield United in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Swansea is 0.20 goals worse than Sheffield United in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Swansea is 0.15 goals better than Sheffield United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Swansea is 2.2 percentage points better than Sheffield United in terms of average possession (55% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swansea
For 4.0 · Against 6.6 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 12.8 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sheffield United
For 5.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.4 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swansea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.6
4.0
4.2
3.7
22.5
22.0
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
10.0
4.0
3.7
5.0
1.0
24.0
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (47)
10.1
10.4
9.8
4.0
4.2
3.8
22.4
22.0
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
56%
48%
60%
67%
52%
60%
59%
61%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
40%
33%
48%
40%
41%
39%
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
11.9
11.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
21.5
21.9
21.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
11.6
11.9
11.3
3.9
3.9
4.0
21.3
21.9
20.8
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
12.0
9.5
4.2
5.5
3.0
23.5
22.5
24.5
% over line
68%
68%
68%
54%
52%
56%
44%
48%
40%
% under line
32%
32%
32%
46%
48%
44%
56%
52%
60%
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.7%
@ 1.66+8.0%
Under 9.5
36.3%
@ 2.09-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.07
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.3%
@ 1.60-0.6%
Under 3.5
42.7%
@ 2.20+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.7%
@ 1.73-2.0%
Under 21.5
50.3%
@ 1.85+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
Under
Superbet
1.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swansea or Draw✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied 67.1% · @ 1.40
Edge
-1.6%
49%
29%
22%
covers Swansea + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Swansea or Sheffield United✗ Miss
71.0%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
-0.7%
49%
29%
22%
covers Swansea + Sheffield United
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw or Sheffield United✓ Hit
63.5%
Avg Implied 61.3% · @ 1.53
Edge
+2.3%
49%
29%
22%
covers Draw + Sheffield United
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swansea over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.1%
@ 1.24-1.7%
Under
26.9%
@ 3.68+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.88
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Swansea over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.24-4.0%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.60+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
Unibet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
888Sport
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Swansea over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 5.00-4.0%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.14+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Swansea over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 11.67-3.7%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Sheffield United over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.9%
@ 1.30+0.2%
Under
28.1%
@ 3.29-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.26
Sheffield United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.48-1.3%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.49+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Sheffield United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.87-2.2%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.10+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Under
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Sheffield United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 15.12-2.3%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swansea, so a minus line means Swansea give that many goals of a start and Sheffield United receive them. At -1, Swansea must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swansea win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swansea)Actual: Sheffield United
Swansea -2
5.9%
@ 9.78-3.1%
Draw -2
11.0%
@ 6.43-2.8%
Sheffield United +2
83.1%
@ 1.15+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.60
10Bet
9.50
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Away
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Swansea)Actual: Sheffield United
Swansea -1
16.9%
@ 4.62-2.4%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 4.06-2.4%
Sheffield United +1
63.5%
@ 1.52+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Away
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Handicap +1 (Swansea)Actual: Swansea
Swansea +1
65.5%
@ 1.40+1.3%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 4.46-1.2%
Sheffield United -1
15.6%
@ 5.72-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
Away
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Swansea)Actual: Swansea
Swansea +2
84.4%
@ 1.10+3.3%
Draw +2
10.3%
@ 7.42-1.7%
Sheffield United -2
5.3%
@ 12.87-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
10Bet
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.85
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swansea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.55
0.47
0.53
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.75
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.6%
@ 1.37+0.5%
Under 0.5
31.4%
@ 2.92-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.72-2.5%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.42+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 6.82-2.3%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.08+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Under
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.4%
@ 2.00-1.2%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.74+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
Swansea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 6.08-2.1%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.09+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Unibet
6.25
Betano
5.80
Superbet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
Swansea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.38-4.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Sheffield United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.7%
@ 2.14-0.7%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.64+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Sheffield United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 6.89-3.1%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Sheffield United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 17.75-3.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swansea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.93
0.55
1.07
0.40
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.25
0.88
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.74
1.29
0.79
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.3%
Under 0.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.6%
Under 1.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swansea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.08
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.0%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.0%
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.7%
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.9%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.1%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.0%
1.31
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.4%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-3.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swansea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joseph Opoku50%
A. Idah40%
Ji-sung Eom40%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Lissah40%
M. Widell40%
J. Fulton20%
J. Tymon20%
Elijah Just20%
M. Stamenić20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
S. Welsh0%
Ben Cabango0%
A. Idah0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
Ji-sung Eom0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ji-sung Eom40%
J. Tymon20%
A. Idah20%
Z. Vipotnik20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Idah40%
Z. Vipotnik20%
Ji-sung Eom20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Sheffield United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum O'Hare40%
P. Bamford40%
Thomas Cannon40%
Romelle Donovan40%
J. Tanganga20%
M. McGuinness17%
Femi Seriki0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
K. Phillips0%
J. Shackleton0%
J. Rothwell0%
Harrison Burrows0%
S. McCallum0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
Sydie Peck0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Harrison Burrows33%
Femi Seriki25%
J. Tanganga20%
Sydie Peck20%
M. McGuinness17%
Callum O'Hare0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
K. Phillips0%
J. Shackleton0%
P. Bamford0%
J. Rothwell0%
S. McCallum0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
Thomas Cannon0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sydie Peck40%
K. Phillips33%
P. Bamford20%
J. Rothwell20%
S. McCallum20%
Femi Seriki0%
Callum O'Hare0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
J. Shackleton0%
Harrison Burrows0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
J. Tanganga0%
M. McGuinness0%
Thomas Cannon0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
P. Bamford40%
Romelle Donovan40%
J. Rothwell20%
Thomas Cannon20%
Femi Seriki0%
Callum O'Hare0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
K. Phillips0%
J. Shackleton0%
Harrison Burrows0%
S. McCallum0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
J. Tanganga0%
M. McGuinness0%
Sydie Peck0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Swansea's squad is €19m less valuable than Sheffield United's (€91m vs €110m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Swansea's attack is €27m more valuable than Sheffield United's (€56m vs €29m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Swansea's midfield is €23m less valuable than Sheffield United's (€9m vs €32m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Swansea's defence is €24m less valuable than Sheffield United's (€26m vs €49m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston