Swansea are tipped to win the match, with a 48% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of Wrexham taking the win. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% probability. Swansea’s home form shows they average 1.47 goals scored and 0.87 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Wrexham, on the road, average 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (97.0% with a 5% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.5% with a 5% edge). Swansea are on a two-game winning run after a 2-0 win over Watford, while Wrexham come off a 3-0 victory over Millwall.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swansea win
48.0%
Avg Implied 43.6% · @ 2.14
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.20
Dafabet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Unibet
2.18
BetVictor
2.15
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.35
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.52
Dafabet
3.45
Betano
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Wrexham win
24.2%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.28
Edge
-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swansea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.07
1.47
0.87
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.41
1.00
1.47
0.87
1.36
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.47
1.67
1.73
1.47
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.50
1.85
1.58
1.92
1.38
1.75
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.56
2.00
0.50
1.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.4%
@ 1.29+2.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
@ 3.33-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.95-0.3%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.83+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.99
Pinnacle
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.83
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.3%
@ 3.33-1.7%
Under 3.5
73.7%
@ 1.30+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Under
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
@ 1.74-1.2%
No
47.8%
@ 2.00+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.78
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.74
No
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.02+5.9%
1-0
10.4%@ 7.21+4.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.19+3.9%
2-0
9.0%@ 9.89+4.5%
0-0
8.7%@ 9.16+3.8%
0-1
6.6%@ 9.23+1.7%
1-2
6.3%@ 10.68+2.1%
2-2
4.9%@ 12.84+1.4%
Swansea goals ↓
Wrexham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.6%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.4%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.9%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swansea goals (down), columns = Wrexham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Swansea is 0.15 points worse than Wrexham in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Swansea is 0.26 goals worse than Wrexham in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Swansea is 0.13 goals better than Wrexham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Swansea is 6.4 percentage points better than Wrexham in terms of average possession (55% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swansea
For 5.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wrexham
For 4.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swansea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.7
4.0
4.1
3.8
22.3
21.8
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
10.0
4.0
3.7
5.0
1.0
24.0
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (47)
10.1
10.3
9.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
22.2
21.8
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
52%
52%
64%
70%
57%
60%
59%
61%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
36%
30%
43%
40%
41%
39%
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
19.8
19.6
20.1
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
13.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
vs Similar (30)
9.1
9.5
8.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
19.9
19.4
20.5
vs Weaker (19)
11.5
10.2
12.6
3.1
2.9
3.3
19.8
20.1
19.5
% over line
52%
44%
61%
46%
41%
52%
34%
30%
39%
% under line
48%
56%
39%
54%
59%
48%
66%
70%
61%
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.80+6.9%
Under 9.5
41.6%
@ 1.92-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.3%
@ 1.72-2.9%
Under 3.5
48.7%
@ 2.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.9%
Under 21.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swansea or Draw
68.3%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
-3.4%
48%
28%
24%
covers Swansea + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Swansea or Wrexham
69.1%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.29
Edge
-3.5%
48%
28%
24%
covers Swansea + Wrexham
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Draw or Wrexham
62.6%
Avg Implied 55.7% · @ 1.68
Edge
+6.9%
48%
28%
24%
covers Draw + Wrexham
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
William Hil
1.70
SBO
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swansea over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
@ 1.22-5.7%
Under
29.8%
@ 3.84+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.07
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.84
Swansea over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
@ 2.13-9.6%
Under
65.9%
@ 1.66+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Unibet
2.14
Under
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Swansea over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
@ 4.63-7.7%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.16+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Swansea over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
@ 10.75-5.4%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Wrexham over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
@ 1.37-1.1%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.86+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Wrexham over/under 1.5
Over
29.9%
@ 2.87-2.5%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.38+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.99
1xBet
2.91
Marathonbet
2.91
10Bet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Wrexham over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
@ 7.28-2.9%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Wrexham over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
@ 16.25-3.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swansea, so a minus line means Swansea give that many goals of a start and Wrexham receive them. At -1, Swansea must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swansea win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swansea)
Swansea -2
5.6%
@ 9.18-4.3%
Draw -2
11.1%
@ 6.24-3.3%
Wrexham +2
83.3%
@ 1.19+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Swansea)
Swansea -1
16.7%
@ 4.04-5.5%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.77-3.1%
Wrexham +1
62.6%
@ 1.67+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Away
Marathonbet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.64
Handicap +1 (Swansea)
Swansea +1
68.3%
@ 1.30-0.8%
Draw +1
18.6%
@ 4.84+0.1%
Wrexham -1
13.1%
@ 7.29+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.25
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Unibet
6.50
Handicap +2 (Swansea)
Swansea +2
86.9%
@ 1.07+2.0%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 9.12-0.9%
Wrexham -2
4.0%
@ 17.75-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swansea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.48
0.60
0.47
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.07
0.73
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.75
0.92
0.83
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.22
2.00
0.00
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.4%
@ 1.39+1.4%
Under 0.5
31.6%
@ 2.81-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
William Hil
2.90
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.7%
@ 2.83-2.1%
Under 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.38+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.81
Under
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 7.36-1.7%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.0%
@ 1.96+0.5%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.77-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Swansea over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.6%
@ 5.91-1.1%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.10+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Swansea over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
@ 11.50-5.7%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Wrexham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.4%
@ 2.33-1.6%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.55+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
2.37
Unibet
2.32
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Wrexham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
@ 7.82-3.4%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.05+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Wrexham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 12.50-6.2%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swansea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.83
0.52
0.87
0.40
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.10
0.67
1.08
1.00
1.12
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.23+1.9%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 3.75-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Betano
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.8%
@ 2.11-3.3%
Under 1.5
59.2%
@ 1.67+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Under
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
@ 4.53-4.4%
Under 2.5
83.9%
@ 1.17+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
William Hil
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Unibet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swansea over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.7%
@ 1.66-1.2%
Under
45.3%
@ 2.10+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.06
Swansea over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.5%
@ 4.09-4.1%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.20+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Swansea over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
@ 9.00-6.2%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Wrexham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.9%
@ 1.94-7.0%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.78+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Wrexham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
@ 5.72-4.8%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.10+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Wrexham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 11.25-6.3%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
+4.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+3.4%
Under 4.5
91.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+5.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
+2.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+1.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+4.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+7.7%
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
+2.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+1.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+4.4%
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+7.6%
Under 5.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.20
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+4.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.23
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.9%
Over 1.5
74.4%
1.29
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+2.4%
Under 3.5
73.7%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+1.7%
Over 2.5 cards
72.1%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Over 8.5 corners
70.4%
1.47
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.40
+7.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-5.7%
Away under 1.5 goals
70.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
+2.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swansea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joseph Opoku50%
A. Idah40%
Ji-sung Eom40%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Lissah40%
M. Widell40%
J. Fulton20%
J. Tymon20%
Elijah Just20%
M. Stamenić20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
S. Welsh0%
Ben Cabango0%
A. Idah0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
Ji-sung Eom0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ji-sung Eom40%
J. Tymon20%
A. Idah20%
Z. Vipotnik20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Idah40%
Z. Vipotnik20%
Ji-sung Eom20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Wrexham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kieffer Moore40%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben Whiteman40%
Dominic Hyam40%
Bailey Cadamarteri33%
Nathan Broadhead25%
Kieffer Moore20%
Sam Smith20%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Daniel Imray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Imray40%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Kieffer Moore0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Callum Doyle0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kieffer Moore40%
Sam Smith20%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Swansea's squad is €14m more valuable than Wrexham's (€91m vs €77m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Swansea's attack is €41m more valuable than Wrexham's (€56m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Swansea's midfield is €13m less valuable than Wrexham's (€9m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Swansea's defence is €14m less valuable than Wrexham's (€26m vs €39m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston