Swift Hesperange are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 63% chance of a home win, a 20% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of an away win. The prediction favours a 2-1 victory for the hosts, the single most likely scoreline, with a 9.7% probability. The expected total is 3.4 goals, so a 3-goal match is the most probable total, at 22%.
Swift’s home form is strong: they average 2.42 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded at home against similarly strong opponents. Racing FC Union Luxembourg, playing away, averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.23 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selection list includes an 86.6% chance of Over 1.5 goals.
The recent form story is clear: Swift have lost their last five matches, most recently 0-6 to UN Kaerjeng 97, yet their home potency keeps them ahead. Racing have only drawn their last game, 2-2 with Victoria Rosport, and are still struggling to find the net away. The model’s pick reflects the home side’s superior scoring record and the away side’s defensive frailty at this venue.
The win for Swift Hesperange, a 1-0 triumph, extends their recent five-game losing streak, but it still marks a positive turn after a 0-6 defeat to UN Kaerjeng 97. Racing FC Union Luxembourg, coming off a 2-2 draw, failed to secure the expected away victory. The model’s favourite, a Home win, was correct, with a 63% probability. The predicted total of 3.4 goals and the most likely 3-goal outcome were far from reality, as only one goal was scored. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5, missed despite an 86.6% chance. Overall, the match delivered a modest result that contradicted the model’s goal expectations.
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.43 | 1.03 | 2.60 | 0.80 | 2.27 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 2.25 | 0.90 | 2.42 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.80 | 1.30 | 3.33 | 0.67 | 2.57 | 1.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.67 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 1.79 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 7.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.93 | 1.48 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 1.92 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Swift Hesperange
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Swift Hesperange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 31.5 | 35.5 | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 33.5 | 46.0 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (29) | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 29.5 | 25.0 | 34.0 |
| vs Weaker (17) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 40% | 50% | 33% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| % under line | 60% | 50% | 67% | 88% | 87% | 89% | 25% | 0% | 50% |
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (46) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.40 | 1.13 | 0.20 | 1.07 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.05 | 0.25 | 1.08 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.20 | 0.70 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 4.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.93 | 0.66 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 0.63 | 1.47 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.20 | 0.65 | 1.33 | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.60 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 1.43 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/24 | A | 2-5 | |
| 23/09/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/02/23 | A | 1-3 | |
| 20/08/22 | H | 2-0 |
Swift Hesperange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 29/09/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/09/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 22/09/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/09/24 | H | 5-0 | |
| 01/09/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 24/08/24 | H | 5-1 | |
| 18/08/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/08/24 | A | 1-5 | |
| 04/08/24 | H | 4-0 |
Racing FC Union Luxembourg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 29/09/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 15/09/24 | A | 2-4 | |
| 01/09/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/08/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/08/24 | H | 4-1 | |
| 11/08/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/08/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/05/24 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 69 | 7 | +62 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.3 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | UNA Strassen | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | F91 Dudelange | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.4 | 90% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 50 | 22 | +28 | 2.4 | 67% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 55 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 30 | +24 | 2.8 | 73% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Swift Hesperange | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 56 | 34 | +22 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 39 | +14 | 3.1 | 90% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 42 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 3.0 | 80% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Union Titus Petange | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 32 | +9 | 2.4 | 60% | 47% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 10 | US Hostert | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 4.0 | 93% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 2.5 | 80% | 43% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 31 | 30 | 26% | 1.0 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 3.2 | 84% | 65% | 45% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 13 | Rodange 91 | 30 | 29 | 23% | 1.0 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.4 | 87% | 60% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 14 | Bettembourg | 31 | 23 | 23% | 0.7 | 29 | 60 | -31 | 2.9 | 77% | 65% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Fola Esch | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 18 | 78 | -60 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Mondercange | 30 | 12 | 10% | 0.4 | 21 | 74 | -53 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | - |
| 17 | Atert Bissen | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 18 | Jeunesse Canach | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |