Swift Hesperange, after five consecutive losses and a 0-6 defeat to UN Kaerjeng 97, will look to overturn a poor run at home, while the visitors, riding a two-game winning streak and a 6-0 victory over the same opponents, will aim to maintain momentum on the road. The model favours a home win, assigning 51% to Swift Hesperange, 23% to a draw and 26% to UN Kaerjeng 97. The average number of goals expected is 3.5, with the single most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 9.8%. Swift Hesperange’s home form shows an impressive 8.0 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas UN Kaerjeng 97’s away form records 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 87.5% probability. These figures suggest a high-scoring encounter with Swift Hesperange likely to secure victory.
Results analysis
The latest clash saw Swift Hesperange extend a difficult run, ending a five-match losing streak with a 4-2 win over UN Kaerjeng 97. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 51% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted over 1.5 goal total, at 87.5%, also hit. The most likely scoreline was 2-1, but the match produced a higher tally, yet the model’s overall outcome call remained accurate. With the final score confirming a home victory, the Pythia model delivered on its primary prediction and its single suggested pick, underscoring its reliability for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swift Hesperange win✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swift Hesperange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
3.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.73
0.91
4.20
1.60
3.33
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
3.29
1.14
3.25
1.75
3.33
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
4.50
0.50
8.00
1.00
3.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.36
0.83
2.00
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
0.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.60
1.33
2.67
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.8%
No
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.7%
1-2
6.5%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
5.2%
3-2
4.6%
Swift Hesperange goals ↓
UN Kaerjeng 97 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
3.4%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
1
5.2%
9.8%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.3%
9.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.4%
6.3%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
4
2.2%
3.3%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swift Hesperange goals (down), columns = UN Kaerjeng 97 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Swift Hesperange
2.57
Progres Niederkorn
2.33
F91 Dudelange
2.23
Union Titus Petange
1.97
FC Differdange 03
1.50
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.50
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.30
Wiltz
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.07
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Mondercange
0.97
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.90
Fola Esch
0.87
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.77
US Hostert
0.60
Bettembourg
0.00
Swift Hesperange is 1.66 points better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of average points per game (2.57 vs 0.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swift Hesperange
3.33
Jeunesse Canach
3.00
F91 Dudelange
2.87
Progres Niederkorn
2.23
Union Titus Petange
2.07
FC Differdange 03
2.00
Bettembourg
2.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.73
Victoria Rosport
1.60
Wiltz
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.47
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.43
Mondercange
1.37
Fola Esch
1.26
UNA Strassen
1.10
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.07
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.06
US Hostert
0.67
Swift Hesperange is 2.27 goals better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals scored per game (3.33 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Swift Hesperange
0.93
Progres Niederkorn
1.03
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Union Titus Petange
1.27
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.30
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.30
FC Differdange 03
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.53
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.73
Mondercange
1.83
Victoria Rosport
1.93
Wiltz
1.97
US Hostert
2.17
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.29
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.37
Fola Esch
2.39
Jeunesse Canach
3.00
Bettembourg
3.00
Swift Hesperange is 1.36 goals better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swift Hesperange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
UN Kaerjeng 97
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Swift Hesperange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Differdange 03
12.5
F91 Dudelange
9.6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.5
Fola Esch
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
9.0
Fola Esch
7.0
F91 Dudelange
5.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
F91 Dudelange
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swift Hesperange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.45
0.36
1.40
0.80
1.50
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.57
1.25
1.00
1.67
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
82% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.45
0.36
0.50
0.67
0.40
0.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swift Hesperange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.55
2.80
0.80
1.83
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.86
0.57
2.00
0.75
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.50
6.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
55% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.20
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
Swift Hesperange's squad is €1m less valuable than UN Kaerjeng 97's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Progres Niederkorn
F91 Dudelange
Union Titus Petange
FC Differdange 03
US Mondorf-les-bains
AS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UNA Strassen
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
Mondercange
Fola Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
US Hostert
Jeunesse Canach
Bettembourg