Swift Hesperange are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 74% chance of victory and a 15% chance of a draw. Their home form is strong against weaker opponents, scoring an average of three goals and conceding just 1.33, while UN Kaerjeng 97, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 1.22 goals scored and concedes three. The expected total is 4.4 goals, with the most likely total being 6 + at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1, a 8% probability. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 93.9%, Over 2.5 at 81.6%, and Home win at 74%. The home win percentage is 74%, the draw 15%, and the away win 11%. Swift Hesperange’s recent five-game slump of five losses ends with a 0-6 defeat to UN Kaerjeng 97, while the away side has won two of their last three, beating Swift Hesperange 6-0. This stark contrast underscores the model’s confidence in a home victory.
Results analysis
Swift Hesperange’s run of five straight defeats ended in a 0-0 stalemate, a shock for the pre-match favourite. The model had called a home win with a 74% probability, but the result was a draw, so the pick was wrong. The model’s other selections - Over 1.5 (93.9%) and Over 2.5 (81.6%) - both missed, while the Home win selection also missed. The match produced no goals, contradicting the model’s 28% chance of the most likely total of 6 + goals. The final score of 0-0 was the only outcome that matched the actual result, leaving the model’s predictions largely off target.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swift Hesperange win✗ Miss
74.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 win✗ Miss
11.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swift Hesperange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.13
2.71
1.21
2.50
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
2.27
1.27
2.83
0.83
1.89
1.56
vs Weaker (11)
3.55
0.82
3.00
1.33
4.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.57
0.93
2.53
1.27
2.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.93
3.33
0.50
3.83
1.22
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.71
1.38
1.50
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
93.9%
Under 1.5
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
81.6%
Under 2.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.2%
Under 3.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.1%
No
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
6.3%
2-0
6.1%
1-1
5.3%
3-2
5.1%
4-0
5.0%
Swift Hesperange goals ↓
UN Kaerjeng 97 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
1.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
1
3.4%
5.3%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
2
6.1%
7.6%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.4%
8.0%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
4
5.0%
6.3%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swift Hesperange goals (down), columns = UN Kaerjeng 97 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.20
F91 Dudelange
2.03
Swift Hesperange
2.03
Progres Niederkorn
1.83
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.50
UNA Strassen
1.47
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.30
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.27
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.27
Wiltz
1.10
Mondercange
1.07
US Rumelange
1.00
US Hostert
1.00
Fola Esch
0.94
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.94
Marisca Mersch
0.87
Schifflange
0.83
Swift Hesperange is 1.10 points better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Differdange 03
2.33
Swift Hesperange
2.20
US Rumelange
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.97
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.83
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.70
Union Titus Petange
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.53
Victoria Rosport
1.50
Wiltz
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.33
Marisca Mersch
1.33
Schifflange
1.20
Fola Esch
1.13
Mondercange
1.10
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.03
US Hostert
1.00
Swift Hesperange is 1.17 goals better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.77
US Hostert
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.17
F91 Dudelange
1.20
UNA Strassen
1.27
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.37
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.61
Wiltz
1.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.77
Mondercange
1.90
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.93
Schifflange
1.97
US Rumelange
2.00
Fola Esch
2.03
Marisca Mersch
2.07
Swift Hesperange is 0.45 goals better than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swift Hesperange
For 5.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 31.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
UN Kaerjeng 97
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Swift Hesperange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
8.6
10.0
7.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
31.5
35.5
27.5
vs Stronger (4)
8.0
8.0
8.0
5.2
4.5
6.0
33.5
46.0
21.0
vs Similar (22)
9.5
12.0
7.0
0.6
0.7
0.6
29.5
25.0
34.0
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
50%
33%
14%
14%
13%
75%
100%
50%
% under line
60%
50%
67%
86%
86%
87%
25%
0%
50%
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (39)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Progres Niederkorn
10.8
FC Differdange 03
10.0
F91 Dudelange
9.3
Swift Hesperange
8.6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.5
Fola Esch
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
8.8
Progres Niederkorn
7.5
Fola Esch
7.0
Swift Hesperange
5.8
F91 Dudelange
5.1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
48.0
Swift Hesperange
31.5
Progres Niederkorn
29.0
F91 Dudelange
17.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swift Hesperange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.29
0.64
1.12
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
0.45
1.83
0.83
1.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.40
1.47
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.73
0.33
2.33
0.78
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.88
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swift Hesperange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.57
1.43
0.57
1.38
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (15)
1.40
0.60
1.83
0.33
1.11
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.36
1.17
0.50
2.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.37
0.53
1.07
0.47
1.67
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
1.60
0.17
1.50
0.44
1.67
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.07
0.88
0.62
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Swift Hesperange's squad is €1m less valuable than UN Kaerjeng 97's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Differdange 03
F91 Dudelange
Progres Niederkorn
AS Jeunesse Esch
UNA Strassen
Victoria Rosport
Union Titus Petange
US Mondorf-les-bains
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Wiltz
Mondercange
Fola Esch
Marisca Mersch
Schifflange
US Rumelange
US Hostert