This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Hostert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.10
1.35
2.06
1.69
2.15
vs Stronger (16)
1.06
2.56
1.30
2.10
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (13)
1.85
1.69
1.43
2.00
2.33
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.3%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.6%
Swift Hesperange goals ↓
US Hostert goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.8%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.5%
2
8.8%
8.9%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swift Hesperange goals (down), columns = US Hostert goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.67
F91 Dudelange
2.67
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.40
Wiltz
2.40
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.25
The Belval Belvaux
2.25
Union Titus Petange
2.25
UNA Strassen
2.25
Progres Niederkorn
2.25
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.00
URB
2.00
Minerva Lintgen
2.00
Jeunesse Canach
2.00
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Marisca Mersch
2.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Daring Echternach
1.67
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Folschette
1.50
Schifflange
1.50
Lorentzweiler
1.50
Moutfort / Medingen
1.50
Obercorn
1.50
Blô-Weiss Medernach
1.50
Jeunesse Schieren
1.50
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.50
Syra Mensdorf
1.50
Sporting Mertzig
1.50
Ehlerange
1.50
Schengen
1.50
Olympia Christnach
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Fola Esch
1.50
Mondercange
1.50
Bettembourg
1.50
Swift Hesperange
1.50
Résidence Walferdange
1.50
US Rumelange
1.50
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.33
ALSS Luxembourg
1.01
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.00
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
0.00
Avenir Beggen
0.00
Kehlen
0.00
Grevenmacher
0.00
Les Aiglons Dalheim
0.00
Sandweiler
0.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
0.00
Feulen
0.00
Atert Bissen
0.00
Koerich
0.00
Noertzange
0.00
Tricolore Gasperich
0.00
Sanem
0.00
Munsbach
0.00
RM Hamm Benfica
0.00
Jeunesse Biwer
0.00
Berdenia Berbourg
0.00
Norden
0.00
Mamer
0.00
Minière Lasauvage
0.00
Koeppchen
0.00
Kopstal 33
0.00
Swift Hesperange is 0.50 points worse than US Hostert in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Schengen
4.50
FC Differdange 03
4.33
Jeunesse Schieren
4.00
UNA Strassen
4.00
Progres Niederkorn
4.00
F91 Dudelange
3.50
Union Titus Petange
3.50
Mondercange
3.50
US Rumelange
3.50
US Hostert
3.33
Koerich
3.00
Sporting Mertzig
3.00
The Belval Belvaux
3.00
Ehlerange
3.00
Berdenia Berbourg
3.00
Wiltz
3.00
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.75
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.67
Moutfort / Medingen
2.50
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.40
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.33
URB
2.33
Daring Echternach
2.33
Lorentzweiler
2.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.00
Syra Mensdorf
2.00
Tricolore Gasperich
2.00
RM Hamm Benfica
2.00
Jeunesse Biwer
2.00
Fola Esch
2.00
Bettembourg
2.00
Marisca Mersch
2.00
Koeppchen
2.00
ALSS Luxembourg
1.93
Jeunesse Canach
1.67
Victoria Rosport
1.67
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Schifflange
1.50
Olympia Christnach
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Swift Hesperange
1.50
Minerva Lintgen
1.20
Folschette
1.00
Kehlen
1.00
Grevenmacher
1.00
Les Aiglons Dalheim
1.00
Blô-Weiss Medernach
1.00
Feulen
1.00
Noertzange
1.00
Sanem
1.00
Munsbach
1.00
Mamer
1.00
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Kopstal 33
1.00
Obercorn
0.50
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
0.00
Avenir Beggen
0.00
Sandweiler
0.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
0.00
Atert Bissen
0.00
Norden
0.00
Minière Lasauvage
0.00
Swift Hesperange is 1.83 goals worse than US Hostert in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 3.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.33
Schifflange
0.50
Obercorn
0.50
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.50
The Belval Belvaux
0.75
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0.80
Atert Bissen
1.00
Norden
1.00
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Victoria Rosport
1.00
Marisca Mersch
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.00
Progres Niederkorn
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Minière Lasauvage
1.00
UNA Strassen
1.25
Daring Echternach
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
Minerva Lintgen
1.40
Wiltz
1.40
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Jeunesse Schieren
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Bettembourg
1.50
US Rumelange
1.50
US Hostert
1.67
Union Titus Petange
1.75
F91 Dudelange
1.83
Avenir Beggen
2.00
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.00
URB
2.00
Grevenmacher
2.00
Lorentzweiler
2.00
Moutfort / Medingen
2.00
Feulen
2.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.00
Sanem
2.00
Munsbach
2.00
Fola Esch
2.00
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.00
Kopstal 33
2.00
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.25
Blô-Weiss Medernach
2.50
Syra Mensdorf
2.50
Sporting Mertzig
2.50
ALSS Luxembourg
2.71
Les Aiglons Dalheim
3.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
3.00
Ehlerange
3.00
RM Hamm Benfica
3.00
Jeunesse Biwer
3.00
Schengen
3.00
Olympia Christnach
3.00
Mamer
3.00
Koeppchen
3.00
Folschette
3.50
Mondercange
3.50
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
4.00
Koerich
4.00
Noertzange
4.00
Tricolore Gasperich
4.00
Berdenia Berbourg
4.00
Kehlen
5.00
Sandweiler
5.00
Swift Hesperange is 0.67 goals better than US Hostert in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swift Hesperange or Draw✗ Miss
74.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Swift Hesperange + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange or US Hostert✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Swift Hesperange + US Hostert
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or US Hostert✓ Hit
55.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Draw + US Hostert
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swift Hesperange, so a minus line means Swift Hesperange give that many goals of a start and US Hostert receive them. At -1, Swift Hesperange must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swift Hesperange win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swift Hesperange)Actual: US Hostert
Swift Hesperange -2
8.3%
Draw -2
13.7%
US Hostert +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Swift Hesperange)Actual: US Hostert
Swift Hesperange -1
22.0%
Draw -1
22.5%
US Hostert +1
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Swift Hesperange)Actual: US Hostert
Swift Hesperange +1
74.1%
Draw +1
15.9%
US Hostert -1
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Swift Hesperange)Actual: US Hostert
Swift Hesperange +2
90.0%
Draw +2
7.2%
US Hostert -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swift Hesperange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.60
0.33
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.74
0.27
0.45
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Hostert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.47
0.76
0.77
0.85
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.88
0.70
0.60
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.77
0.14
1.00
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swift Hesperange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
1.04
0.64
1.09
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.29
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Hostert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.30
0.88
1.29
0.92
1.31
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.69
0.60
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.29
1.00
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and US Hostert have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and US Hostert have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and US Hostert have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Swift Hesperange and US Hostert have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →