Swift Hesperange hosts Wiltz in the Luxembourg National Division on August 9. Wiltz is coming off a draw against Etzella Ettelbruck, while Swift Hesperange suffered a defeat to US Rumelange, losing 0-1. The model's pick is a home win, with a probability of 38%, while the draw is 29% and the away win is 33%.
The expected total goals are 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 13.7%. Swift Hesperange has scored an average of 1.09 goals at home against weaker opponents, conceding 1.36 goals. Wiltz has scored 1.2 goals away against stronger opponents, but conceded 2.8 goals.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 75%, and Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 73.1%. The latter selection has a 9% edge. Home win percentage stands at 38%, draw percentage at 29%, and away win percentage at 33%. The model's selections include Over 1.5 at 75% and Under 3.5 at 73.1%.
The away team, Wiltz, pulled off a stunning upset, defeating the home team, Swift Hesperange, 2-7. This result extends Wiltz's unbeaten run to six games, a remarkable turnaround after two consecutive defeats. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through, with a probability of 38%. The model's call was wrong.
The model's selection, a Home win, was not the only one to miss the mark. The suggested pick, Under 3.5, also MISSED with a probability of 73.1%. On the other hand, the suggested pick, Over 1.5, HIT with a probability of 75.0%.
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.47 | 0.77 | 1.54 | 1.12 | 1.41 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 1.59 | 0.56 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.54 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.38 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.81 | 1.50 | 1.64 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.77 | 2.54 | 0.67 | 2.17 | 0.86 | 2.86 |
| vs Similar (16) | 2.56 | 1.19 | 2.67 | 1.11 | 2.43 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Wiltz goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 14% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Swift Hesperange
Wiltz
Swift Hesperange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 29.6 | 27.2 | 39.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (37) | 7.2 | 7.2 | - | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 27.2 | 27.2 | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 39.0 | - | 39.0 |
| % over line | 20% | 25% | 0% | 10% | 16% | 4% | 80% | 75% | 100% |
| % under line | 80% | 75% | 100% | 90% | 84% | 96% | 20% | 25% | 0% |
Wiltz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.15 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.54 | 0.31 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.23 | 0.69 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.94 | 0.62 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.41 | 1.05 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.12 | 0.62 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.54 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 1.83 | 0.57 | 1.86 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.62 | 0.56 | 1.78 | 0.67 | 1.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 96.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 89.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 87.3% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +5.4% | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 79.5% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +6.7% | - |
| Over 4.5 cards | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.15 | 1.15 | -2.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.1% | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.43 | +9.3% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 29/09/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/03/24 | A | 4-5 | |
| 03/09/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/05/23 | A | 0-6 | |
| 04/12/22 | H | 4-2 |
Swift Hesperange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 2-0 |
Wiltz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 6-0 | |
| 21/09/25 | A | 2-6 | |
| 01/06/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/05/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 14/05/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/25 | H | 0-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |