Swindon and Cheltenham are set to face off in a high-scoring match, with the expected total goals standing at 3.2. The recent form of both teams suggests an intriguing encounter, as Swindon comes off a draw against Northampton, while Cheltenham is looking to build on their recent win over Rotherham.
The model predicts a home win for Swindon, with a 54% chance of success. This is reflected in the probabilities, with a 54% chance of a home win, 24% chance of a draw, and 22% chance of an away win. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.9%.
Swindon has been scoring an average of 1.67 goals at home, while conceding 1.0. Cheltenham, on the other hand, averages 1.36 goals away, while conceding 1.73. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 83.7%. This selection is likely driven by the expected high-scoring nature of the match.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a probability of 83.7%. Other selections with notable probabilities are the home win (54%), draw (24%), and away win (22%). Swindon has a 54% chance of winning, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of losing to Cheltenham.
Results analysis
Swindon’s victory, 2-1, extended their recent win and confirmed the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The model had given the home win a 45 % probability, and the outcome matched that call. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not realized, but the 2-1 result still fell within the model’s 2.7 expected goals range. Every suggested pick settled in the model’s favour: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9 %, Under 7.5 at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.5 %, Under 6.5 at 95.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.0 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.7 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.4 %. All selections were correct, underscoring the model’s accuracy for this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swindon win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied 48.5% · @ 1.92
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.00
Dafabet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.96
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.44
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Cheltenham win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.80
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Pinnacle
3.83
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swindon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.33
1.69
1.15
1.24
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.41
1.28
1.69
1.15
1.19
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.77
1.41
1.71
1.31
1.85
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.80
1.00
2.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.56
1.50
1.50
1.36
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
@ 1.26+1.7%
Under 1.5
24.2%
@ 3.59-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
10Bet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.84-1.0%
Under 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.91+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
@ 3.05-2.6%
Under 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.34+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
@ 1.69-0.1%
No
45.4%
@ 2.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Unibet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.27+6.2%
1-0
9.4%@ 7.17+3.1%
2-1 ✓
9.2%@ 7.66+3.4%
0-0
8.1%@ 9.74+3.5%
2-0
8.1%@ 9.06+3.2%
1-2
6.9%@ 11.76+3.1%
0-1
6.7%@ 10.76+2.5%
2-2
5.3%@ 12.32+1.7%
Swindon goals ↓
Cheltenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.7%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.4%
13%
6.9%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.2%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.1%
4.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swindon goals (down), columns = Cheltenham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Swindon is 0.50 points better than Cheltenham in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Swindon is 0.37 goals better than Cheltenham in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Swindon is 0.43 goals better than Cheltenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Swindon is 3.3 percentage points better than Cheltenham in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swindon
For 4.7 · Against 7.7 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 9.4 · Total 18.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
For 4.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 11.5 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.5
11.2
3.3
3.7
2.9
20.4
20.8
20.2
vs Stronger (3)
11.5
-
11.5
2.3
0.0
3.5
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (47)
11.3
11.5
11.2
3.3
3.9
2.8
20.3
20.8
19.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
77%
73%
42%
61%
26%
38%
36%
38%
% under line
25%
23%
27%
58%
39%
74%
62%
64%
62%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.7
3.4
3.1
3.7
22.2
23.3
21.1
vs Stronger (10)
9.2
10.8
7.8
2.8
1.8
4.2
21.4
19.5
23.2
vs Similar (40)
9.8
9.5
10.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.4
24.0
20.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
56%
57%
46%
41%
52%
56%
64%
48%
% under line
44%
44%
43%
54%
59%
48%
44%
36%
52%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.4%
@ 1.68+4.2%
Under 9.5
40.6%
@ 2.07-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.63
Under
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.5%
Under 21.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swindon or Draw✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied 76.1% · @ 1.22
Edge
+1.6%
45%
28%
27%
covers Swindon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Swindon or Cheltenham✓ Hit
76.2%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+2.6%
45%
28%
27%
covers Swindon + Cheltenham
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Cheltenham✗ Miss
46.0%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.85
Edge
-4.3%
45%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Cheltenham
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.00
888Sport
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.89
SBO
1.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swindon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.1%
@ 1.17+6.7%
Under
13.9%
@ 4.49-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Under
888Sport
4.80
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Swindon over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.6%
@ 1.88+9.2%
Under
41.4%
@ 1.84-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Under
10Bet
1.95
888Sport
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Swindon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.6%
@ 3.81+7.2%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.23-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
Superbet
3.90
Under
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Swindon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 8.43+2.7%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.05-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.80
888Sport
8.00
Betano
7.70
Under
888Sport
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Cheltenham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.3%
@ 1.42+4.8%
Under
29.7%
@ 2.69-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.81
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.72
Cheltenham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
@ 3.07+3.9%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.34-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.19
Unibet
3.15
888Sport
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Under
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Cheltenham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 7.64+0.2%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.06-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Cheltenham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 20.88-1.1%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.01+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swindon, so a minus line means Swindon give that many goals of a start and Cheltenham receive them. At -1, Swindon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swindon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swindon)Actual: Cheltenham
Swindon -2
15.6%
@ 6.86+2.5%
Draw -2
16.7%
@ 5.31-0.1%
Cheltenham +2
67.7%
@ 1.28-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Unibet
6.10
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.40
Unibet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Swindon)Actual: Draw
Swindon -1
32.3%
@ 3.31+5.4%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.58-3.2%
Cheltenham +1
46.0%
@ 1.85-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.30
10Bet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.45
Away
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Handicap +1 (Swindon)Actual: Swindon
Swindon +1
77.8%
@ 1.23+4.9%
Draw +1
13.0%
@ 5.44-3.5%
Cheltenham -1
9.3%
@ 8.40-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw
10Bet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Superbet
5.25
Away
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
7.60
Handicap +2 (Swindon)Actual: Swindon
Swindon +2
90.7%
@ 1.05+3.2%
Draw +2
6.3%
@ 11.20-1.9%
Cheltenham -2
2.9%
@ 21.67-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
9.60
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.54
0.62
0.41
0.65
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.59
0.54
0.62
0.38
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.97
0.35
0.88
0.46
1.08
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.33
2.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.76
0.36
0.57
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.5%
@ 1.36+0.0%
Under 0.5
31.5%
@ 2.95-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.08
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.7%
@ 2.64+0.5%
Under 1.5
64.3%
@ 1.43-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Betano
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.5%
@ 6.53+0.2%
Under 2.5
85.5%
@ 1.08-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Under
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
53.9%
@ 1.79+2.2%
Under
46.1%
@ 1.92-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Under
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.87
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.9%
@ 4.94-0.9%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.14+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 12.67-2.4%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.9%
@ 2.40-1.8%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.51+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 8.16-2.8%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 31.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.15
0.54
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.97
0.69
1.15
0.54
0.81
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.06
0.82
0.85
0.77
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.80
1.14
0.93
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.5%
Under 0.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.3%
Under 1.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.6%
Under 2.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
1.05
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.2%
1.05
888Sport
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.1%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
1xBet
1.17
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.1%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-5.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.8%
1.22
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.34
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.3%
1.40
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
+5.2%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
70.3%
1.42
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
+4.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swindon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Drinan50%
Ollie Clarke33%
B. Middlemas25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ollie Clarke33%
K. Majekodunmi33%
C. Ripley25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Munda67%
Stephan Negru25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
B. Middlemas0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Drinan50%
O. Palmer25%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Cheltenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
C. McCann50%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
J. Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. McWilliams67%
F. Willcox33%
J. Tomlinson25%
J. Bickerstaff25%
J. Tomkinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
C. McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Sweeney33%
A. Weimann33%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
C. McCann0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. McCann50%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Swindon and Cheltenham have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Swindon and Cheltenham have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Swindon and Cheltenham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Swindon and Cheltenham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale