PythiaFootballBETA
Swindon faces a tough challenge at home against Chesterfield, with the away team's recent form a significant storyline. Chesterfield are on a 2-game winning run, having beaten Swindon 2-1 in their last encounter. The model predicts an away win, which aligns with a 43% probability of Chesterfield taking the three points.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%.
Swindon struggles to score at home, averaging 1 goal per game, while conceding 2. Chesterfield, on the other hand, averages 1.36 goals when playing away against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, which has an 80.2% chance of being correct. The home win percentage is 31%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 43%.
The win extends Swindon's recent losing streak to four games after two straight defeats. In a closely contested match, the final score was 1-2 in favour of Chesterfield, which also secured an away win. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 43%. The model's call was also consistent with the pre-match favourite, Chesterfield, who were expected to win. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 80.2%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 24%.
Swindon| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.23 | 1.79 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.45 | 1.28 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Chesterfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.10 | 1.38 | 1.06 | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.79 | 1.29 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.06 | 0.94 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Chesterfield goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 12% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
SwindonChesterfieldSwindon| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 20.7 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 14.0 | - | 14.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | - | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (48) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 20.7 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 71% | 70% | 72% | 40% | 54% | 27% | 40% | 39% | 40% |
| % under line | 29% | 30% | 28% | 60% | 46% | 73% | 60% | 61% | 60% |
Chesterfield| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 21.9 | 21.3 | 22.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 10.6 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 22.1 | 21.8 | 22.6 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 10.0 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 21.7 | 20.9 | 22.4 |
| % over line | 57% | 58% | 57% | 54% | 62% | 46% | 45% | 38% | 52% |
| % under line | 43% | 42% | 43% | 46% | 38% | 54% | 55% | 62% | 48% |
Swindon| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.45 | 0.59 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Chesterfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.00 | 0.79 | 1.12 | 0.62 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 0.56 | 0.31 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Swindon| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.67 | 1.29 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.00 | 0.69 | 1.15 | 0.54 | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Chesterfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 86.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 1-1 |
Swindon| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-2 |
Chesterfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Notts County | 49 | 87 | 53% | 1.8 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 2.7 | 73% | 55% | 27% | 9.2 | 45% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.4 | 73% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 2 |  Bromley | 46 | 87 | 52% | 1.9 | 71 | 46 | +25 | 2.5 | 76% | 52% | 28% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.8 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 3 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 52% | 1.9 | 86 | 45 | +41 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.8 | 61% | 23.4 | 61% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 4 |  Salford | 49 | 85 | 53% | 1.7 | 65 | 57 | +8 | 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 9.8 | 51% | 3.7 | 43% | 25.3 | 71% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 5 |  Cambridge | 46 | 82 | 48% | 1.8 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 2.2 | 72% | 35% | 13% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.1 | 35% | 22.9 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 48 | 80 | 44% | 1.7 | 71 | 57 | +14 | 2.7 | 71% | 44% | 29% | 10.2 | 58% | 4.1 | 56% | 22.0 | 48% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 7 |  Grimsby | 48 | 79 | 46% | 1.6 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 33% | 10.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 65% | 24.2 | 69% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 8 |  Barnet | 46 | 76 | 46% | 1.7 | 70 | 53 | +17 | 2.7 | 76% | 48% | 30% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.8 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 75 | 48% | 1.6 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 2.8 | 85% | 63% | 28% | 11.2 | 74% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.7 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 10 |  Oldham | 46 | 68 | 39% | 1.5 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 2.3 | 65% | 48% | 20% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.9 | 63% | 25.0 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 |  Crewe | 46 | 67 | 41% | 1.5 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 2.7 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 52% | 25.5 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 |  Colchester | 46 | 66 | 39% | 1.4 | 62 | 49 | +13 | 2.4 | 67% | 35% | 20% | 9.1 | 37% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.9 | 76% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 13 |  Walsall | 46 | 65 | 39% | 1.4 | 56 | 56 | +0 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.0 | 59% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.1 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 14 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 62 | 41% | 1.3 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.7 | 76% | 24.2 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 61 | 33% | 1.3 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 2.5 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 54% | 23.0 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 16 |  Accrington | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.3 | 67% | 37% | 20% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.2 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 53 | 72 | -19 | 2.7 | 70% | 46% | 30% | 9.5 | 43% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.9 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 18 |  Cheltenham | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 53 | 79 | -26 | 2.9 | 80% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 54% | 3.6 | 48% | 22.7 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 2.4 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.3 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 20 |  Newport County | 46 | 43 | 26% | 0.9 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 2.7 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 9.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 23.5 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 21 |  Tranmere | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 54 | 79 | -25 | 2.9 | 83% | 54% | 35% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.8 | 57% | 22.4 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 22 |  Crawley Town | 46 | 40 | 17% | 0.9 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 26% | 12.0 | 78% | 4.1 | 59% | 25.7 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 23 |  Harrogate | 46 | 39 | 22% | 0.8 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.3 | 70% | 37% | 17% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.1 | 39% | 21.7 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 24 |  Barrow | 46 | 36 | 20% | 0.8 | 45 | 78 | -33 | 2.7 | 72% | 63% | 33% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.3 | 48% | 20.4 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 46% |