Swindon are favoured to win, a 46% chance versus 27% for a draw and 26% for Colchester. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13% probability. Swindon, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, have averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.21 conceded, while Colchester, away against a similar side, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.8% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.5%), and Under 5.5 (94.1% with a 2% edge). Swindon come off a win, Colchester off a defeat, setting the stage for a tight encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swindon win
46.4%
Avg Implied 36.5% · @ 2.54
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.33
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.51
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
Colchester win
26.3%
Avg Implied 35.7% · @ 2.59
Edge
-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.70
10Bet
2.68
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swindon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.86
1.21
1.12
1.69
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.45
1.41
1.86
1.21
1.07
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.27
0.87
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.96
1.55
0.91
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
@ 1.24+2.2%
Under 1.5
23.2%
@ 3.65-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.92
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.3%
@ 1.82-0.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
@ 1.94+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.94
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.85
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.2%
@ 3.03-1.5%
Under 3.5
70.8%
@ 1.34+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Under
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
55.3%
@ 1.63-1.5%
No
44.7%
@ 2.15+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.65
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
No
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.09+5.7%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.91+4.3%
1-0
9.2%@ 8.69+4.0%
2-0
8.2%@ 12.62+4.7%
0-0
7.7%@ 10.34+3.4%
1-2
6.8%@ 8.99+1.8%
0-1
6.3%@ 8.71+1.1%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.70+1.5%
Swindon goals ↓
Colchester goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
6.3%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
1
9.2%
13%
6.8%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.4%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.3%
5.0%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.7%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swindon goals (down), columns = Colchester goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Swindon is 0.20 points better than Colchester in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Swindon is 0.17 goals better than Colchester in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Swindon is 0.22 goals worse than Colchester in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Swindon is 2.2 percentage points worse than Colchester in terms of average possession (52% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swindon
For 4.3 · Against 7.5 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 8.2 · Total 18.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
For 4.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.3
11.6
3.2
3.5
2.9
20.2
20.3
20.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
25.0
-
25.0
vs Similar (48)
11.5
11.3
11.7
3.2
3.7
2.8
20.1
20.3
19.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
74%
76%
40%
54%
27%
35%
30%
40%
% under line
25%
26%
24%
60%
46%
73%
65%
70%
60%
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.7
9.0
4.0
4.2
3.7
24.9
24.5
25.2
vs Stronger (8)
7.4
7.5
7.3
3.5
2.2
5.7
24.9
23.8
26.3
vs Similar (41)
9.1
9.0
9.3
4.1
4.8
3.4
24.9
24.6
25.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
37%
32%
42%
60%
62%
58%
76%
76%
75%
% under line
63%
68%
58%
40%
38%
42%
24%
24%
25%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.4%
@ 1.61+0.0%
Under 9.5
42.6%
@ 2.17-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Unibet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.1%
Under 3.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.6%
Under 21.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swindon or Draw
73.7%
Avg Implied 64.1% · @ 1.45
Edge
+9.6%
46%
27%
26%
covers Swindon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Swindon or Colchester
72.7%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.3%
46%
27%
26%
covers Swindon + Colchester
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Colchester
53.6%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.46
Edge
-9.9%
46%
27%
26%
covers Draw + Colchester
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swindon over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
@ 1.25+5.5%
Under
20.5%
@ 3.56-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.79
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Swindon over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
@ 2.26+5.9%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.58-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Swindon over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
@ 5.11+3.1%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.13-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Swindon over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
@ 11.00-1.0%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Colchester over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
@ 1.26-5.2%
Under
31.9%
@ 3.48+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.71
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Colchester over/under 1.5
Over
31.7%
@ 2.34-8.1%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.54+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Colchester over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
@ 5.27-6.8%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.13+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Colchester over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
@ 12.25-4.9%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swindon, so a minus line means Swindon give that many goals of a start and Colchester receive them. At -1, Swindon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swindon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swindon)
Swindon -2
10.1%
@ 10.99+2.0%
Draw -2
14.4%
@ 6.61+1.0%
Colchester +2
75.5%
@ 1.13-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Swindon)
Swindon -1
24.5%
@ 5.08+6.9%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 4.15+0.3%
Colchester +1
53.6%
@ 1.47-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Swindon)
Swindon +1
73.7%
@ 1.45+11.7%
Draw +1
15.4%
@ 4.30-5.4%
Colchester -1
10.9%
@ 5.25-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.90
Away
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.10
Unibet
4.90
Handicap +2 (Swindon)
Swindon +2
89.1%
@ 1.12+10.0%
Draw +2
7.5%
@ 6.97-5.2%
Colchester -2
3.3%
@ 10.85-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
6.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.64
0.64
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.41
0.62
0.64
0.64
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.40
0.33
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.42
0.55
0.45
0.46
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.5%
@ 1.34+1.5%
Under 0.5
29.5%
@ 2.98-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
William Hil
3.10
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 2.63-1.2%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.43+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.63
Under
BetVictor
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 6.50-1.4%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Under
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.5%
@ 2.01+3.4%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.72-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Swindon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
@ 6.16-1.0%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.09+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.35
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Swindon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 17.38-2.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Colchester over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.2%
@ 2.04-2.3%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.70+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Unibet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Colchester over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.3%
@ 6.40-4.2%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.09+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Colchester over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 19.00-3.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.21
0.57
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.03
0.79
1.21
0.57
0.87
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.87
0.53
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.54
1.00
0.45
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.20+1.0%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 4.11-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
1xBet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.3%
@ 2.00-1.3%
Under 1.5
54.7%
@ 1.74+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.5%
@ 4.05-4.4%
Under 2.5
81.5%
@ 1.20+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.2%
@ 1.68-0.9%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.06+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Swindon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.1%
@ 4.33-2.3%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.18+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Swindon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 10.62-3.5%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Colchester over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.1%
@ 1.72-4.9%
Under
50.9%
@ 2.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Colchester over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.7%
@ 4.50-5.9%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.17+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Colchester over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 11.38-5.1%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+4.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.5%
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
-
+2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+1.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+4.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+6.8%
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+10.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.08
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+1.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+1.0%
Under 4.5
85.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
+2.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+5.9%
Under 5.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.20
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+4.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+2.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.25
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+5.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-3.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.20
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+1.0%
Over 1.5
76.8%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+2.2%
Away +2 handicap
75.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-3.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.7%
1.45
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
+9.6%
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
1.45
Unibet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+11.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.3%
Under 4.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.8%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
+1.5%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.5%
1.34
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
+1.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swindon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Drinan50%
Ollie Clarke33%
B. Middlemas25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ollie Clarke33%
K. Majekodunmi33%
C. Ripley25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Munda67%
Stephan Negru25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
B. Middlemas0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Drinan50%
O. Palmer25%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Colchester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaden Williams33%
Harry Anderson25%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Vincent-Young25%
Ellis Iandolo25%
Rob Hunt25%
J. Tucker25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Vincent-Young25%
O. Thorn25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson75%
M. Sesay33%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale