Swindon are tipped to win, with a 50% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Port Vale victory. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, but the most likely total is two, with a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% chance. Swindon, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Port Vale, on the road, average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9% with a 3% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.5% with a 1% edge). Swindon come off a defeat, while Port Vale return from a draw.
Results analysis
Swindon’s return to home ground saw the win extend their recent run, as they edged Port Vale 3-1. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 50% probability, proved correct. The final score matched the favoured outcome, and the total of four goals fell well above the expected 2.7, yet the model’s selections largely held. Under 7.5, hit at 99.4%; Away under 2.5 HT goals, hit at 98.5%; Under 6.5, hit at 98.0%; Away under 3.5 goals, hit at 97.9%; Away under 2.5 2H goals, hit at 97.3%; Home under 2.5 HT goals, hit at 97.2%; Home under 2.5 2H goals, hit at 96.1%; and Under 5.5, hit at 94.5%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every selection’s outcome was reported once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swindon win✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.31
Edge
+22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.42
Dafabet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.39
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.53
Dafabet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Port Vale win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 44.5% · @ 2.09
Edge
-21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.13
SBO
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
William Hil
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swindon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.47
1.77
1.23
1.06
1.65
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.34
1.41
1.77
1.23
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.43
0.56
0.81
0.79
2.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.67
0.75
0.25
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.89
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.28+3.4%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 3.38-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.52
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.93+1.5%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.83-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.01
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.1%
@ 3.30-0.0%
Under 3.5
71.9%
@ 1.29+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
@ 1.74+0.0%
No
46.8%
@ 1.98-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
No
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.22+5.7%
1-0
10.1%@ 9.42+5.4%
2-1
9.6%@ 10.51+5.3%
2-0
9.3%@ 16.20+6.5%
0-0
8.0%@ 9.46+3.3%
1-2
6.1%@ 8.14+0.6%
0-1
6.0%@ 7.17-0.3%
3-1 ✓
5.3%@ 25.77+3.5%
Swindon goals ↓
Port Vale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.0%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.6%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swindon goals (down), columns = Port Vale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Swindon is 0.01 points better than Port Vale in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Swindon is 0.00 goals better than Port Vale in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Swindon is 0.19 goals worse than Port Vale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swindon
For 3.8 · Against 8.2 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 0.7 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 8.4 · Total 17.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
For 4.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.3
11.6
3.3
3.7
2.9
20.4
20.7
20.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
25.0
-
25.0
vs Similar (48)
11.5
11.3
11.7
3.3
3.8
2.8
20.3
20.7
19.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
74%
76%
42%
58%
27%
38%
35%
40%
% under line
25%
26%
24%
58%
42%
73%
62%
65%
60%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.5
10.1
3.4
3.4
3.3
22.0
23.1
20.8
vs Stronger (15)
11.1
10.4
12.0
2.9
3.2
2.4
20.1
22.6
17.3
vs Similar (35)
10.0
10.6
9.3
3.6
3.5
3.6
22.9
23.3
22.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
58%
65%
46%
52%
39%
51%
58%
43%
% under line
39%
42%
35%
54%
48%
61%
49%
42%
57%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.1%
@ 2.22+17.5%
Under 9.5
40.9%
@ 1.58-17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.14
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
46.7%
Under 21.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swindon or Draw✓ Hit
77.2%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.69
Edge
+22.0%
50%
27%
23%
covers Swindon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
SBO
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Swindon or Port Vale✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.0%
50%
27%
23%
covers Swindon + Port Vale
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Port Vale✗ Miss
49.7%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
-22.1%
50%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Port Vale
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swindon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.6%
@ 1.39+13.6%
Under
19.4%
@ 2.82-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.94
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Swindon over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 2.88+16.6%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.37-16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
1xBet
2.92
Superbet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.92
BetVictor
2.90
Under
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Swindon over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.7%
@ 7.14+9.7%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.07-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Swindon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 17.50+3.0%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.01-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Port Vale over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.5%
@ 1.22-11.5%
Under
35.5%
@ 3.88+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.11
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
BetVictor
3.90
Port Vale over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.8%
@ 2.09-16.7%
Under
72.2%
@ 1.68+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Port Vale over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 4.48-12.0%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.17+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Port Vale over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 9.75-7.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.05+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swindon, so a minus line means Swindon give that many goals of a start and Port Vale receive them. At -1, Swindon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swindon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swindon)Actual: Draw
Swindon -2
11.7%
@ 15.00+5.7%
Draw -2
15.8%
@ 8.26+4.9%
Port Vale +2
72.5%
@ 1.08-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
8.60
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Swindon)Actual: Swindon
Swindon -1
27.5%
@ 6.72+14.1%
Draw -1
22.8%
@ 4.71+3.7%
Port Vale +1
49.7%
@ 1.33-17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Away
Superbet
1.48
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Handicap +1 (Swindon)Actual: Swindon
Swindon +1
77.2%
@ 1.69+24.5%
Draw +1
14.0%
@ 3.73-10.0%
Port Vale -1
8.8%
@ 3.84-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Away
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.86
Unibet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Handicap +2 (Swindon)Actual: Swindon
Swindon +2
91.2%
@ 1.21+17.0%
Draw +2
6.3%
@ 5.87-9.0%
Port Vale -2
2.5%
@ 8.53-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.62
0.62
0.24
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.38
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.19
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.44
0.38
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.75
0.25
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.48
0.33
0.42
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.8%
@ 1.37-0.7%
Under 0.5
33.2%
@ 2.85+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
10Bet
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Marathonbet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.7%
@ 2.77-0.8%
Under 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.40+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
10Bet
1.44
BetVictor
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 7.10-0.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.07+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.3%
@ 2.30+7.0%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.55-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.28
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 7.86+2.4%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.05-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 22.83-1.4%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.8%
@ 1.91-8.8%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.80+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 5.59-6.3%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.11+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.50
Betano
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 15.42-4.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.15
0.62
0.82
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.97
0.79
1.15
0.62
0.81
0.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
0.83
0.12
0.44
0.14
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.19
0.86
0.17
0.58
0.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.24+3.3%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 3.68-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.1%
@ 2.13-1.6%
Under 1.5
57.9%
@ 1.65+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Unibet
2.14
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 4.56-2.7%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.17+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.65
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.1%
@ 1.96+7.8%
Under
44.9%
@ 1.76-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.6%
@ 5.87+2.9%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.10-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.85
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 17.08-1.7%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.7%
@ 1.64-8.7%
Under
52.3%
@ 2.13+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 4.06-9.6%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.20+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 10.25-6.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.3%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+12.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.2%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+17.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.13
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-2.9%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
80.6%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.24
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
-9.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.1%
1.28
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.5%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-10.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
72.2%
1.68
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.68
+16.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+0.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
1.77
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.71
+18.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swindon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Drinan50%
Ollie Clarke33%
B. Middlemas25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ollie Clarke33%
K. Majekodunmi33%
C. Ripley25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Munda67%
Stephan Negru25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
B. Middlemas0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Drinan50%
O. Palmer25%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Port Vale
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Garrity33%
C. Humphreys25%
Kyle Dempsey25%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Swindon's squad is €3m less valuable than Port Vale's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Swindon and Port Vale have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Swindon's midfield is €1m less valuable than Port Vale's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Swindon's defence is €2m less valuable than Port Vale's (€1m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington