Syunik’s recent 1-3 loss to Sardarapat and Gandzasar’s 0-3 defeat to BKMA hint at a cautious start, yet the numbers suggest a high-scoring affair. The model predicts a home win with a 41% chance, a draw 25%, and an away win 34%. The expected total is 3.3 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Syunik, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 5.0 goals scored and concedes none, while Gandzasar, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5, with an 84.9% probability. Home win 41%, draw 25%, away win 34%. The predicted outcome is a home win, with the match likely to finish 1-1.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Gandzasar snatched a 0-1 victory, ending Syunik’s run of defeats and proving the pre-match favourite was wrong. The model had picked a home win with a 41% probability, but the actual result was an away win. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.9% chance, missed as the match finished below two goals. The most likely score was 1-1 at 11.1%, followed by 2-1 and 1-2, but neither materialised. The expected total of 3.3 goals and the 22% chance of a 3-goal tally were also unfulfilled. Overall, the prediction fell short of the match’s reality.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Syunik win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win✓ Hit
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Syunik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.87
2.43
1.57
0.88
2.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
1.00
5.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
1.50
1.25
5.00
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.78
2.20
1.20
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.12
1.06
2.75
1.00
1.50
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
3.40
1.00
4.33
0.67
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
1.10
1.80
1.20
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.8%
No
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
1-0
5.5%
3-1
5.0%
0-1 ✓
4.9%
Syunik goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.9%
4.6%
2.4%
0.9%
1
5.5%
11%
7.9%
4.1%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.7%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.2%
5.0%
3.9%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Syunik goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Armenia
2.25
BKMA II
2.13
Gandzasar
2.12
Ararat II
1.78
Ararat-Armenia II
1.72
Banants II
1.34
Pyunik II
1.31
Shirak II
1.23
Mika
1.03
Syunik
0.97
Alashkert II
0.65
Lernayin Artsakh II
0.11
Syunik is 1.16 points worse than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Gandzasar
2.59
West Armenia
2.56
BKMA II
2.42
Ararat-Armenia II
1.94
Ararat II
1.94
Banants II
1.81
Pyunik II
1.69
Syunik
1.32
Alashkert II
1.32
Shirak II
1.06
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00
Mika
1.00
Syunik is 1.27 goals worse than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
BKMA II
0.97
Gandzasar
0.97
West Armenia
1.06
Shirak II
1.23
Ararat II
1.50
Ararat-Armenia II
1.62
Syunik
1.71
Pyunik II
1.72
Banants II
1.78
Mika
2.41
Alashkert II
3.19
Lernayin Artsakh II
3.72
Syunik is 0.74 goals worse than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Syunik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Syunik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Syunik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
2.33
0.67
2.67
0.33
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
2.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.86
0.29
2.67
0.00
1.25
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
71% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Syunik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (25)
€3m
SYU (23)
€2m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
Syunik's squad is €1m less valuable than Gandzasar's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (8)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Syunik and Gandzasar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
Syunik and Gandzasar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
Syunik and Gandzasar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
West Armenia
BKMA II
Ararat II
Ararat-Armenia II
Banants II
Pyunik II
Shirak II
Mika
Alashkert II
Lernayin Artsakh II