Syunik face Gandzasar with the model favouring an away win, a 42% chance against 31% for a home victory and 27% for a draw. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.7% probability. Syunik, playing at home against a similarly strong side, averages 2.14 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Gandzasar on the road against a similar opponent averages 2.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.4% chance. The match is expected to be competitive, with both sides showing solid attacking output but Gandzasar’s defensive solidity giving them a slight edge. The probabilities are 31% home win, 27% draw, 42% away win, and 79.4% for Over 1.5.
Results analysis
Syunik and Gandzasar drew 1-1, a result that surprised the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win with a 42% probability, which proved wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.4% chance, hit as the match produced two goals. The final score of 1-1 matches the most likely scoreline of 1-1, which the model assigned a 12.7% probability. Syunik, coming off a defeat, had a recent form of LDLLL, while Gandzasar, after three straight defeats, had a recent form of LLLWL. The model’s prediction of an away win was incorrect, but its Over 1.5 goal pick was correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Syunik win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Syunik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.40
1.75
1.38
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.73
1.45
2.14
1.00
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
1.12
1.71
1.29
1.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
0.87
3.47
0.67
1.93
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
3.45
0.64
4.50
0.67
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
2.41
1.00
3.00
0.75
1.89
1.22
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
No
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
0-0
6.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
Syunik goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
7.6%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
1
6.3%
13%
9.0%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.9%
7.7%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.2%
3.4%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Syunik goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gandzasar
2.64
BKMA II
2.25
Syunik
2.22
Lernayin Artsakh
2.07
Banants II
1.50
Andranik
1.46
Noah II
1.39
Ararat-Armenia II
1.39
Alashkert II
1.32
Shirak II
1.18
Ararat II
1.14
Pyunik II
1.07
Mika
0.61
Onor
0.59
Nikarm
0.43
Syunik is 0.42 points worse than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 2.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.89
Gandzasar
2.46
Lernayin Artsakh
2.21
Syunik
2.19
Noah II
1.89
Ararat II
1.86
Banants II
1.82
Pyunik II
1.79
Ararat-Armenia II
1.71
Alashkert II
1.64
Shirak II
1.46
Andranik
1.32
Nikarm
0.96
Onor
0.85
Mika
0.75
Syunik is 0.28 goals worse than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (2.19 vs 2.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gandzasar
0.61
Syunik
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.96
BKMA II
1.11
Banants II
1.21
Noah II
1.36
Ararat-Armenia II
1.46
Andranik
1.46
Ararat II
1.68
Alashkert II
1.75
Shirak II
1.79
Pyunik II
2.04
Mika
2.14
Onor
3.04
Nikarm
4.36
Syunik is 0.28 goals worse than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 0.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Syunik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.68
0.54
0.86
0.29
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.33
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.36
0.83
0.00
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
64% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.30
1.20
0.30
0.92
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
0.20
1.67
0.33
1.25
0.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.30
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Syunik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Syunik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
1.07
0.57
1.21
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.91
0.67
0.83
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.30
2.10
0.00
1.15
0.54
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (10)
2.30
0.20
2.83
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.40
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
74% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Syunik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (25)
€3m
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Syunik's squad is €1m less valuable than Gandzasar's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (8)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Syunik and Gandzasar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Syunik and Gandzasar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Syunik and Gandzasar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →