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Tallinna Kalev II vs Paide II Result & Analysis

Date: 11/08/2024
Time: 15:30
Final 3-0
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Vs
43%
21%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Tallinna Kalev II win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide II win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L01L13L25L35L33D22D31W22D06LH·FCI30/05H·JK 03/06A·VII16/06A·TAR29/06H·PAI07/07A·LAA13/07H·ELV20/07A·FLO23/07A·FC 27/07A·VII05/08
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.612.651.362.451.832.83
vs Stronger (9)1.113.221.002.751.203.60
vs Similar (14)1.932.291.572.292.292.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %9% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 – goals for & against
110-1118L05L111L06L12L53W31W03L12L31WA·FC 26/05H·VII30/05H·FLO02/06A·LAA16/06H·ELV29/06A·TAL07/07H·FCI13/07A·FC 20/07H·TAR27/07A·JK 05/08
Avg total
5.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
4.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.372.971.333.071.402.87
vs Stronger (10)1.003.901.174.830.752.50
vs Similar (20)1.552.501.441.891.643.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%2%04%112%217%319%417%528%6+
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.0%
Under 1.5
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
81.5%
Under 2.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
79.5%
No
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
1-1
6.5%
1-2
6.2%
3-2
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
2-3
5.0%
1-3
4.4%
Tallinna Kalev II goals ↓
Paide II goals →
01234
01.8%2.0%2.7%1.9%1.0%
12.2%6.5%6.2%4.4%2.3%
23.2%6.8%7.2%5.0%2.6%
32.5%5.2%5.5%3.8%2.0%
41.4%3.0%3.2%2.2%1.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev II goals (down), columns = Paide II goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Tallinna Kalev II is 0.47 points better than Paide II in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.69).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Tallinna Kalev II is 0.69 goals better than Paide II in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Tallinna Kalev II is 0.94 goals better than Paide II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.42 vs 3.36).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L02L11D14L11D12L20W20W02LH·FCI30/05H·JK 03/06A·VII16/06A·TAR29/06H·PAI07/07A·LAA13/07H·ELV20/07A·FLO23/07A·FC 27/07A·VII05/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.350.451.550.921.17
vs Stronger (9)0.441.670.252.000.601.40
vs Similar (14)0.861.140.571.291.141.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %26% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L00D03L03L01L41W21W03L01L21WA·FC 26/05H·VII30/05H·FLO02/06A·LAA16/06H·ELV29/06A·TAL07/07H·FCI13/07A·FC 20/07H·TAR27/07A·JK 05/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.370.731.200.871.53
vs Stronger (10)0.401.400.501.500.251.25
vs Similar (20)1.001.350.891.001.091.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D11D14L21W22D10W11D02L04LH·FCI30/05H·JK 03/06A·VII16/06A·TAR29/06H·PAI07/07A·LAA13/07H·ELV20/07A·FLO23/07A·FC 27/07A·VII05/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.911.300.910.910.921.67
vs Stronger (9)0.671.560.750.750.602.20
vs Similar (14)1.071.141.001.001.141.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %26% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-804L05L18L03L11D12L10W00D11D10WA·FC 26/05H·VII30/05H·FLO02/06A·LAA16/06H·ELV29/06A·TAL07/07H·FCI13/07A·FC 20/07H·TAR27/07A·JK 05/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.600.601.870.531.33
vs Stronger (10)0.602.500.673.330.501.25
vs Similar (20)0.551.150.560.890.551.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.594.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.581.5%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes79.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
TKI wins
0
Draws
1
PI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tallinna Kalev II vs Paide II · H/A from TKI
DateH/AGameScore
07/07/24HTKI Vs Paide II3-5
09/03/24APaide II Vs TKI0-1

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/24AViimsi Vs TKI6-0
27/07/24AFC Tallinn Vs TKI2-2
23/07/24AFlora II Vs TKI1-3
20/07/24HTKI Vs Elva2-2
13/07/24ALaagri Vs TKI3-3
07/07/24HTKI Vs Paide II3-5
29/06/24ATartu Welco Vs TKI5-2
16/06/24AViimsi Vs TKI3-1
03/06/24HTKI Vs JK Tabasalu0-1
30/05/24HTKI Vs FCI Levadia II1-3

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/24AJK Tabasalu Vs PI1-3
27/07/24HPI Vs Tartu Welco1-2
20/07/24AFC Tallinn Vs PI3-0
13/07/24HPI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
07/07/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs PI3-5
29/06/24HPI Vs Elva1-2
16/06/24ALaagri Vs PI6-0
02/06/24HPI Vs Flora II1-11
30/05/24HPI Vs Viimsi0-5
26/05/24AFC Tallinn Vs PI8-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDL0.70
HomeWLLLD0.45
AwayLDWDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%9%17%
AVG goals4.263.824.67
Over 1.5 %87%82%92%
Over 2.5 %87%82%92%
Over 3.5 %78%73%83%
Scored1.611.361.83
Conceded2.652.452.83
BTTS70%64%75%
Clean Sheet9%9%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.06
HomeLLLWL0.92
AwayLLWLW1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%35%
AVG goals4.123.964.27
Over 1.5 %78%71%85%
Over 2.5 %70%67%73%
Over 3.5 %52%50%54%
Scored1.461.171.73
Conceded2.662.792.54
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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