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Tallinna Kalev II vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 0-3
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Vs
20%
21%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tallinna Kalev II win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win✓ Hit
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D01L13L10W22D22D13L33D14LA·K-J16/11H·K-J20/11H·FC 04/03A·PAI09/03H·VII17/03A·ELV30/03H·FLO08/04A·JK 14/04H·LAA21/04
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.562.331.002.602.252.00
vs Stronger (2)1.502.501.502.50--
vs Similar (7)1.572.290.672.672.252.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L20W30W61W01L00D32WA·ELV02/03H·JK 09/03H·FC 16/03A·PAI30/03H·VII07/04A·LAA13/04H·FCI21/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.712.000.752.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.501.002.001.000.001.00
vs Weaker (3)2.670.332.000.003.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.3%
1-1
8.9%
1-3
7.2%
0-2
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-3 ✓
5.4%
2-1
5.3%
0-1
5.3%
Tallinna Kalev II goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
01234
03.4%5.3%7.0%5.4%3.1%
12.7%8.9%9.3%7.2%4.2%
22.3%5.3%6.2%4.8%2.8%
31.0%2.4%2.7%2.1%1.2%
40.3%0.8%0.9%0.7%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev II goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Tallinna Kalev II is 0.50 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Tallinna Kalev II is 0.06 goals better than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Tallinna Kalev II is 1.19 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (2.42 vs 1.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D10W10W02L11D11D21W02LA·K-J16/11H·K-J20/11H·FC 04/03A·PAI09/03H·VII17/03A·ELV30/03H·FLO08/04A·JK 14/04H·LAA21/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.781.000.401.001.251.00
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Similar (7)0.860.860.330.671.251.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D30W01L00D20WA·ELV02/03H·JK 09/03H·FC 16/03A·PAI30/03H·VII07/04A·LAA13/04H·FCI21/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.140.750.251.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.500.250.670.330.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.001.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %86% (+62pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L03L00D20W11D02L12L12LA·K-J16/11H·K-J20/11H·FC 04/03A·PAI09/03H·VII17/03A·ELV30/03H·FLO08/04A·JK 14/04H·LAA21/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.781.330.601.601.001.00
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (7)0.711.430.332.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W30W31W00D00D12LA·ELV02/03H·JK 09/03H·FC 16/03A·PAI30/03H·VII07/04A·LAA13/04H·FCI21/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.140.571.250.501.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.000.751.330.670.001.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TKI wins
0
Draws
0
TW wins

Head-to-head

Tallinna Kalev II vs Tartu Welco · H/A from TKI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24HTKI Vs Laagri1-4
14/04/24AJK Tabasalu Vs TKI3-3
08/04/24HTKI Vs Flora II1-3
30/03/24AElva Vs TKI2-2
17/03/24HTKI Vs Viimsi2-2
09/03/24APaide II Vs TKI0-1
04/03/24HTKI Vs FC Tallinn1-3
20/11/22HTKI Vs K-Järve JK Järve0-1
16/11/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs TKI3-3

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24HTW Vs FCI Levadia II3-2
13/04/24ALaagri Vs TW0-0
07/04/24HTW Vs Viimsi0-1
30/03/24APaide II Vs TW1-6
16/03/24HTW Vs FC Tallinn3-0
09/03/24HTW Vs JK Tabasalu2-0
02/03/24AElva Vs TW1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDL0.78
HomeLLDLL0.20
AwayDWDD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %11%0%25%
AVG goals3.893.604.25
Over 1.5 %78%80%75%
Over 2.5 %78%80%75%
Over 3.5 %78%80%75%
Scored1.561.002.25
Conceded2.332.602.00
BTTS78%80%75%
Clean Sheet11%0%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.86
HomeWWLW2.25
AwayLWD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%75%33%
AVG goals2.712.752.67
Over 1.5 %57%75%33%
Over 2.5 %43%50%33%
Over 3.5 %29%25%33%
Scored2.002.002.00
Conceded0.710.750.67
BTTS29%25%33%
Clean Sheet43%50%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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