Tallinna Kalev is expected to come out on top against Elva, with a predicted high-scoring match. The home side's recent form is marked by inconsistency, coming off a draw against FC Tallinn, while Elva has been unbeaten in their last five matches, including a 2-1 win over Tartu Welco.
The probabilities for the match result are 50% for a home win, 25% for a draw, and 25% for an away win, with the model picking a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.7%.
Tallinna Kalev has scored an average of 0.75 goals at home, conceding 2.62 goals to stronger opponents. Elva has averaged 2 goals scored away from home, conceding 1 goal to weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.1%. This is the only selection made by the model, with no edge noted.
Results analysis
Tallinna Kalev's win extends their run, following a 1-0 victory over Elva. The match saw just one goal, which was well below the model's expected total of 3.1 goals. The model predicted a home win, which proved correct with a 50% probability of a home win and a 25% chance of an away win before the match. The model's selection, a home win, was the expected outcome, while the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.1% probability, missed. The predicted most likely score was a 2-1 or 1-1 draw, with 23% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tallinna Kalev winâś“ Hit
49.5%
Avg Implied 35.7% · @ 2.51
Edge
+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.63
Bet365
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
Dafabet
2.55
Drawâś— Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 3.88
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.95
Elva winâś— Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.18
Edge
-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.45
10Bet
2.25
William Hil
2.20
Dafabet
2.19
1xBet
2.15
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
2.53
1.83
2.17
1.94
2.78
vs Stronger (17)
1.47
3.00
1.67
2.67
1.36
3.18
vs Similar (12)
2.00
2.08
2.00
1.67
2.00
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.40
1.73
1.40
2.13
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.84
1.52
1.67
1.50
2.00
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.80
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.1%
@ 1.07-5.8%
Under 1.5
17.9%
@ 7.75+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Under
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.1%
@ 1.23-15.2%
Under 2.5
40.9%
@ 3.54+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.18
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.28
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.7%
@ 1.66-18.4%
Under 3.5
63.3%
@ 2.03+18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.07
Unibet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.8%
@ 1.26-12.3%
No
39.2%
@ 3.42+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
No
Betfair
3.70
1xBet
3.38
Marathonbet
3.34
William Hil
3.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 9.30+7.2%
2-1
9.6%@ 10.20+5.5%
2-0
7.7%@ 19.00+5.5%
1-0 âś“
7.4%@ 18.20+5.1%
1-2
6.6%@ 9.50+2.2%
2-2
6.0%@ 9.20+1.4%
3-1
5.8%@ 14.60+2.9%
0-0
5.7%@ 27.00+4.2%
Tallinna Kalev goals ↓
Elva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
4.8%
3.7%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.4%
12%
6.6%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.6%
5.8%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tallinna Kalev is 0.38 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tallinna Kalev is 0.07 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tallinna Kalev is 0.97 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.83
0.92
0.61
1.33
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
1.59
0.67
1.17
0.27
1.82
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.00
1.25
1.33
1.44
vs Stronger (17)
1.06
1.41
1.00
1.50
1.09
1.36
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.87
1.13
0.93
1.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
0.96
1.17
1.00
1.38
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.1%
1.07
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
-5.8%
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II