Tallinna Kalev’s recent 0-5 loss to Flora II after two straight defeats signals a defensive struggle, yet the model still favours a home win at 52%. The expected total of 3.2 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals point to a high-scoring encounter, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 11%. Kalev’s home form shows a low 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against stronger opposition, while FCI Levadia II, playing away, averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against weaker teams. The draw probability sits at 24%, and the away win at 24%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 6.5 (95.6%), Home +2 handicap (89.9%), Under 5.5 (89.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.7%), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.5%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tallinna Kalev win
52.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
2.50
1.62
2.08
2.00
2.82
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
3.06
1.50
2.38
1.22
3.67
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.92
1.80
1.60
2.14
2.14
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
2.00
2.33
1.80
1.87
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.68
2.20
1.83
2.08
1.54
2.31
vs Weaker (5)
4.20
1.00
4.33
0.67
4.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.7%
1-0
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.1%
Tallinna Kalev goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.2%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
1
7.0%
11%
6.3%
2.6%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.7%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.0%
6.2%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.4%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tallinna Kalev is 0.15 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tallinna Kalev is 0.49 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tallinna Kalev is 0.36 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 2.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tallinna Kalev or Draw
76.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Tallinna Kalev + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev or FCI Levadia II
75.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Tallinna Kalev + FCI Levadia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FCI Levadia II
47.9%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Draw + FCI Levadia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
85.5%
Under
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tallinna Kalev, so a minus line means Tallinna Kalev give that many goals of a start and FCI Levadia II receive them. At -1, Tallinna Kalev must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tallinna Kalev win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -2
14.5%
Draw -2
16.1%
FCI Levadia II +2
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -1
30.7%
Draw -1
21.5%
FCI Levadia II +1
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +1
76.3%
Draw +1
13.6%
FCI Levadia II -1
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +2
89.9%
Draw +2
6.8%
FCI Levadia II -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.77
0.85
0.71
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.76
0.62
1.12
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
1.20
0.80
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.40
2.00
0.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.85
1.23
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.29
0.88
1.25
0.89
1.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
0.80
1.20
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.13
1.00
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
1.20
0.83
1.08
0.46
1.31
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.60
2.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
Flora II
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II