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Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
Vs
43%
28%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Tallinna Kalev are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of Flora II taking the win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Kalev, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.07 goals scored and concede 2.2, while Flora II, on the road against a weaker side, average 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.6%), Home +2 handicap (88.2%) and Under 4.5 (86.5%). Kalev’s recent form shows a win-win-draw-win-draw pattern, but they are coming off a defeat, whereas Flora II’s last five are draw-win-loss-win-loss, following a goalless draw. The overall shape points to a tightly contested game with Kalev likely edging out a narrow win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tallinna Kalev win
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-823L31W80W21W11D80W10W30W13L05LA·FCI11/07H·NÕM18/07A·TAM23/07A·VII03/08H·FC 08/08H·TAR11/08H·ELV15/08A·NÕM20/08H·MAA24/08A·FLO29/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.832.501.622.082.002.82
vs Stronger (17)1.353.061.502.381.223.67
vs Similar (12)2.001.921.801.602.142.14
vs Weaker (1)8.000.00--8.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D13L00D50W01L30W12L21W00D50WA·NÕM12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NÕM25/07A·FC 01/08H·NÕM10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.532.081.771.821.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.171.941.622.250.801.70
vs Weaker (12)3.080.922.801.003.290.86
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
5.3%
Tallinna Kalev goals ↓
Flora II goals →
01234
08.2%6.9%4.8%1.9%0.6%
19.1%13%7.1%2.8%0.8%
27.7%9.1%5.3%2.1%0.6%
33.9%4.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.4%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tallinna Kalev is 0.35 points better than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tallinna Kalev is 0.19 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.82).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tallinna Kalev is 0.39 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tallinna Kalev or Draw
71.4%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Tallinna Kalev + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev or Flora II
71.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Tallinna Kalev + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flora II
56.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Tallinna Kalev, so a minus line means Tallinna Kalev give that many goals of a start and Flora II receive them. At -1, Tallinna Kalev must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tallinna Kalev win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -2
8.6%
Draw -2
13.4%
Flora II +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -1
22.0%
Draw -1
21.3%
Flora II +1
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +1
71.4%
Draw +1
16.5%
Flora II -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +2
87.9%
Draw +2
8.3%
Flora II -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W20W11D11D20W10W10W02L03LA·FCI11/07H·NÕM18/07A·TAM23/07A·VII03/08H·FC 08/08H·TAR11/08H·ELV15/08A·NÕM20/08H·MAA24/08A·FLO29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.200.770.850.711.47
vs Stronger (17)0.471.760.621.120.332.33
vs Similar (12)1.000.501.000.401.000.57
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D20W00D30W01L00D00D30WA·NÕM12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NÕM25/07A·FC 01/08H·NÕM10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.080.691.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.890.751.000.300.80
vs Weaker (12)1.830.171.600.202.000.14
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W11D60W10W00D60W00D20W11D02LA·FCI11/07H·NÕM18/07A·TAM23/07A·VII03/08H·FC 08/08H·TAR11/08H·ELV15/08A·NÕM20/08H·MAA24/08A·FLO29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.300.851.231.291.35
vs Stronger (17)0.881.290.881.250.891.33
vs Similar (12)1.001.420.801.201.141.57
vs Weaker (1)6.000.00--6.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L00D30W01L00D11D21W00D20WA·NÕM12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NÕM25/07A·FC 01/08H·NÕM10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.931.001.080.820.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.671.060.881.250.500.90
vs Weaker (12)1.250.751.200.801.290.71
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 5.594.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.5%-------
Home +2 handicap87.9%-------
Under 4.586.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals81.1%-------
Away +2 handicap78.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.5%-------
Over 1.575.8%-------
Under 3.572.1%-------
Home or Away71.9%-------
Home or Draw71.4%-------
Home +1 handicap71.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
TK wins
0
Draws
1
FI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II · H/A from TK
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFlora II Vs TK5-0

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFlora II Vs TK5-0
24/08/26HTK Vs Maardu1-3
20/08/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs TK0-3
15/08/26HTK Vs Elva1-0
11/08/26HTK Vs Tartu Kalev8-0
08/08/26HTK Vs FC Tallinn1-1
03/08/26AViimsi Vs TK1-2
23/07/26ATammeka Tartu U19 Vs TK0-8
18/07/26HTK Vs Nõmme United II3-1
11/07/26AFCI Levadia II Vs TK3-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HFI Vs Tallinna Kalev5-0
24/08/26AElva Vs FI0-0
21/08/26HFI Vs Viimsi2-1
15/08/26ATartu Welco Vs FI2-1
10/08/26HFI Vs Nõmme Kalju II3-0
01/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs FI1-0
25/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs FI0-5
22/07/26ATrans Narva Vs FI0-0
18/07/26HFI Vs Maardu1-3
12/07/26ANõmme United II Vs FI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL0.90
HomeWDWWL1.09
AwayLWWWL0.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%22%
AVG goals4.224.004.41
Over 1.5 %90%87%93%
Over 2.5 %78%74%81%
Over 3.5 %62%61%63%
Scored1.461.391.52
Conceded2.762.612.89
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet12%13%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.32
HomeLLWWW1.65
AwayDWLLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%26%
AVG goals3.383.523.26
Over 1.5 %82%87%78%
Over 2.5 %60%61%59%
Over 3.5 %42%43%41%
Scored1.862.171.59
Conceded1.521.351.67
BTTS48%43%52%
Clean Sheet32%43%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
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Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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