Tallinna Kalev are tipped to win in a match that the model expects to be fairly low-scoring, with an average of 2.9 goals. The most probable total is two goals, a 24% chance, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.9% probability. The model favours a home win, with a 54% chance, followed by a draw at 25% and an away win at 21%. Tallinna Kalev have struggled at home against stronger opposition, averaging only 0.5 goals scored and conceding 2.5. Nõmme Kalju II, on the other hand, have been prolific away, scoring 5.0 on average and conceding just 1.0 against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Under 5.5 (92.7%), Home +2 handicap (91.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.9%), and Home over 0.5 goals (83.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tallinna Kalev win
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
2.50
1.62
2.08
2.00
2.82
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
3.06
1.50
2.38
1.22
3.67
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.92
1.80
1.60
2.14
2.14
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.50
2.44
1.50
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
3.00
1.33
3.00
1.20
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.82
1.33
2.22
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
1.00
4.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.1%
Under 2.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
Tallinna Kalev goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.9%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.1%
12%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.6%
6.0%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tallinna Kalev is 1.12 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tallinna Kalev is 0.72 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tallinna Kalev is 0.95 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tallinna Kalev or Draw
78.9%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Tallinna Kalev + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev or Nõmme Kalju II
74.8%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Tallinna Kalev + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II
46.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Draw + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
83.7%
Under
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tallinna Kalev, so a minus line means Tallinna Kalev give that many goals of a start and Nõmme Kalju II receive them. At -1, Tallinna Kalev must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tallinna Kalev win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -2
14.3%
Draw -2
16.8%
Nõmme Kalju II +2
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -1
31.1%
Draw -1
22.7%
Nõmme Kalju II +1
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +1
78.9%
Draw +1
12.9%
Nõmme Kalju II -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +2
91.8%
Draw +2
5.8%
Nõmme Kalju II -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.77
0.85
0.71
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.76
0.62
1.12
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.81
0.75
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.27
0.50
0.83
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.89
0.78
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.85
1.23
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.29
0.88
1.25
0.89
1.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
0.80
1.20
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.69
1.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.83
2.17
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.29
0.44
1.44
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II