Tallinna Kalev’s recent form has been uneven, with a 0-5 loss to Flora II after two straight defeats, yet they have managed to score 1.5 goals per game at home against stronger opposition. Tartu Welco, on the other hand, has won four of their last five matches away, averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opponents, and they just came off a 1-3 defeat to Viimsi. The model’s most confident outcome is an away win, with a 39% chance of Tartu Welco triumphing, compared with 35% for a Tallinna Kalev victory and 25% for a draw. The expected total is 3.2 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.3% probability. Home side Tallinna Kalev is expected to score 1.5 and concede 2.38 goals, while Tartu Welco should net 2.83 and allow 1.5 goals. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (93.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%) with a 2% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals (91.2%) with an 18% edge.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tallinna Kalev win
35.3%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 3.98
Edge
+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.60
1xBet
4.22
Bet365
4.20
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.35
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.60
Betfair
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Dafabet
4.30
Betano
4.10
Tartu Welco win
39.4%
Avg Implied 56.4% · @ 1.60
Edge
-17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Dafabet
1.67
Unibet
1.65
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.53
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
2.50
1.62
2.08
2.00
2.82
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
3.06
1.50
2.38
1.22
3.67
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.92
1.80
1.60
2.14
2.14
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.70
2.43
1.64
2.81
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
2.60
1.65
2.27
1.73
3.00
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.44
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.3%
@ 1.06-4.2%
Under 1.5
15.7%
@ 8.15+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Under
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
7.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.6%
@ 1.23-12.5%
Under 2.5
37.4%
@ 3.70+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Unibet
3.25
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.4%
@ 1.61-16.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
@ 2.11+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.64
Betfair
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.07
Unibet
1.95
Both teams to score
Yes
65.1%
@ 1.30-5.9%
No
34.9%
@ 3.20+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.32
Betfair
1.29
No
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 11.33+7.5%
1-2
8.6%@ 9.83+4.1%
2-1
8.1%@ 17.00+5.5%
2-2
6.7%@ 11.67+2.9%
0-1
5.6%@ 15.67+2.8%
0-2
5.5%@ 12.33+1.9%
1-0
5.2%@ 28.00+3.6%
0-0
5.0%@ 30.33+3.5%
Tallinna Kalev goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
5.6%
5.5%
3.0%
1.3%
1
5.2%
11%
8.6%
4.8%
2.0%
2
4.9%
8.1%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.5%
4.2%
3.5%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tallinna Kalev is 0.12 points better than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tallinna Kalev is 1.00 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tallinna Kalev is 0.12 goals better than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tallinna Kalev or Draw
60.6%
Avg Implied 42.6% · @ 2.15
Edge
+18.0%
35%
25%
39%
covers Tallinna Kalev + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.88
Tallinna Kalev or Tartu Welco
74.7%
Avg Implied 79.7% · @ 1.15
Edge
-5.1%
35%
25%
39%
covers Tallinna Kalev + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Draw or Tartu Welco
64.7%
Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.18
Edge
-13.0%
35%
25%
39%
covers Draw + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
@ 1.21+2.3%
Under
20.9%
@ 4.00-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
46.4%
@ 2.01+0.7%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.69-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.03
Unibet
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
20.8%
@ 4.40-0.2%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.17+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
@ 10.00-1.9%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
@ 1.02-9.5%
Under
19.0%
@ 9.80+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Under
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5
Over
49.5%
@ 1.27-23.0%
Under
50.5%
@ 3.35+23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.20
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5
Over
23.3%
@ 2.00-22.6%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.70+22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
1.91
Under
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.72
Unibet
1.57
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
@ 3.38-18.5%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.26+18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Betfair
3.25
Under
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.24
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tallinna Kalev, so a minus line means Tallinna Kalev give that many goals of a start and Tartu Welco receive them. At -1, Tallinna Kalev must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tallinna Kalev win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -2
6.9%
Draw -2
10.7%
Tartu Welco +2
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev -1
17.6%
Draw -1
17.6%
Tartu Welco +1
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +1
60.6%
@ 2.13+20.8%
Draw +1
18.8%
@ 3.67-4.3%
Tartu Welco -1
20.6%
@ 2.29-16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
1.89
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.35
Away
Unibet
2.33
Betfair
2.25
Handicap +2 (Tallinna Kalev)
Tallinna Kalev +2
79.4%
@ 1.35+20.2%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 4.00-7.9%
Tartu Welco -2
8.5%
@ 3.85-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Unibet
4.00
Away
Unibet
3.85
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.77
0.85
0.71
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.76
0.62
1.12
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.13-6.8%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 5.30+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.6%
@ 1.71-11.7%
Under 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.95+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Betfair
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.83
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.5%
@ 3.10-15.2%
Under 2.5
85.5%
@ 1.31+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.3%
@ 1.83-4.2%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.87+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.0%
@ 1.40-11.0%
Under
46.0%
@ 2.59+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.59
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.85
1.23
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.29
0.88
1.25
0.89
1.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
0.80
1.20
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.55
1.27
0.73
1.44
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.3%
@ 1.05-5.8%
Under 0.5
17.7%
@ 7.80+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.05
Under
1xBet
7.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.1%
@ 1.42-15.0%
Under 1.5
49.9%
@ 2.65+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Under
1xBet
2.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.0%
@ 2.24-18.3%
Under 2.5
77.0%
@ 1.58+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.24
Under
1xBet
1.58
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.0%
@ 1.57-7.4%
Under
49.0%
@ 2.20+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.20
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.6%
@ 2.29-17.5%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.53+17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.29
Under
1xBet
1.53
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.2%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.24
-
-
-
+18.5%
Under 5.5
89.1%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-
-
-
+13.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.31
1xBet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
-
-
-
+15.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.3%
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-4.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
81.0%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-9.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
79.2%
1.17
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+0.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
79.1%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
-
-
-
+2.3%
Under 4.5
77.6%
1.49
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.52
Unibet
1.38
-
-
+16.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
-
+17.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.58
1xBet
1.58
-
-
-
-
+18.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-
-
-
-6.8%
Home or Away
74.7%
1.15
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-5.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II