PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Tartu Welco vs FC Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 18/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Vs
47%
22%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Tartu Welco a 47% win probability against FC Tallinn in the Estonia: Esiliiga A on 2026-07-18, with 22% for the draw and 31% for FC Tallinn. The model estimates around 3.8 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (20%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (8.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (90%), Over 2.5 (74%), BTTS Yes (73%).

Results analysis

Tartu Welco finished 0-2 against FC Tallinn (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 47% home win, 22% draw and 31% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (90%). Missed: Over 2.5 (74%), BTTS Yes (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tartu Welco winâś— Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn winâś“ Hit
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-825L22D11D14L31W52W32W22D11D81WA·NĂ•M18/09H·FC 21/09A·FCI27/09H·VII03/10A·TAL19/10H·NĂ•M23/10H·ELV27/10A·LUU03/11A·FLO09/11A·MAA13/07
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.371.572.071.792.621.38
vs Stronger (1)8.001.00--8.001.00
vs Similar (16)1.882.122.002.001.712.29
vs Weaker (13)2.540.922.201.402.750.62
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W22D01L14L42W12L25L22D10W03LH·NĂ•M27/09H·TAL05/10A·ELV19/10H·NĂ•M23/10A·FLO27/10H·VII02/11A·LUU09/11A·PHO15/11H·PHO22/11H·ELV11/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.702.131.531.931.872.33
vs Stronger (9)1.332.220.832.332.332.00
vs Similar (13)1.692.382.172.171.292.57
vs Weaker (8)2.121.621.670.672.402.20
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.9%
Under 2.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 3.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
73.1%
No
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
5.9%
3-2
5.1%
2-0
4.8%
2-3
4.1%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
02.9%2.9%3.2%1.8%0.8%
13.8%8.6%6.7%3.9%1.7%
24.8%8.3%7.1%4.1%1.8%
33.4%5.9%5.1%2.9%1.2%
41.8%3.1%2.7%1.5%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FCI Levadia II
2.17
Maardu
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.40
Tartu Welco
1.20
Nõmme United II
1.17
Flora II
0.88
Nõmme Kalju II
0.29
Tartu Welco is 0.20 points worse than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.40
Viimsi
2.33
Maardu
2.17
FCI Levadia II
2.17
Elva
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.80
Flora II
1.62
Nõmme United II
1.17
FC Tallinn
0.80
Nõmme Kalju II
0.71
Tartu Welco is 1.60 goals better than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 0.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Tallinn
1.00
Elva
1.17
Tallinna Kalev
1.20
Viimsi
1.33
Tartu Welco
1.60
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Nõmme United II
1.67
Flora II
1.75
Maardu
2.33
Nõmme Kalju II
2.86
Tartu Welco is 0.60 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.4%-------âś“ Hit
Over 2.573.9%-------âś— Miss
BTTS Yes73.1%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 10. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (21)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Tartu Welco vs FC Tallinn · H/A from TW
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25HTW Vs FC Tallinn2-2
23/08/25AFC Tallinn Vs TW0-2
05/07/25AFC Tallinn Vs TW1-5
29/03/25HTW Vs FC Tallinn3-1
03/11/24HTW Vs FC Tallinn1-1
20/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs TW1-3
14/06/24AFC Tallinn Vs TW1-1
16/03/24HTW Vs FC Tallinn3-0

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/07/26AMaardu Vs TW1-8
09/11/25AFlora II Vs TW1-1
03/11/25ALuunja Vs TW2-2
27/10/25HTW Vs Elva3-2
23/10/25HTW Vs Nõmme Kalju II5-2
19/10/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs TW1-3
03/10/25HTW Vs Viimsi1-4
27/09/25AFCI Levadia II Vs TW1-1
21/09/25HTW Vs FC Tallinn2-2
18/09/25ANõmme United Vs TW5-2

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26HFT Vs Elva0-3
22/11/25HFT Vs Phoenix1-0
15/11/25APhoenix Vs FT2-2
09/11/25ALuunja Vs FT5-2
02/11/25HFT Vs Viimsi1-2
27/10/25AFlora II Vs FT2-4
23/10/25HFT Vs Nõmme United1-4
19/10/25AElva Vs FT1-0
05/10/25HFT Vs Tallinna Kalev II2-2
27/09/25HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II2-1

đź“Š 12. Overall Statistics

Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.76
HomeDDLWW1.67
AwayDWDDW1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%46%54%
AVG goals3.603.583.62
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %68%71%65%
Over 3.5 %52%54%50%
Scored2.182.082.27
Conceded1.421.501.35
BTTS66%67%65%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.18
HomeDLLWL1.04
AwayDLWLD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%28%36%
AVG goals3.423.083.76
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %60%56%64%
Over 3.5 %44%32%56%
Scored1.561.401.72
Conceded1.861.682.04
BTTS62%64%60%
Clean Sheet16%16%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II613
67%
2.2
1310+3
3.8
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.7
-
2MaarduMaardu612
67%
2.0
1314-1
4.5
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.3
-
3ElvaElva611
50%
1.8
127+5
3.2
83%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
4ViimsiViimsi610
50%
1.7
148+6
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
5Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev510
60%
2.0
96+3
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6Flora IIFlora II87
25%
0.9
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7FC TallinnFC Tallinn57
40%
1.4
45-1
1.8
60%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
8Nõmme United IINõmme United II67
33%
1.2
710-3
2.8
100%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
9Tartu WelcoTartu Welco56
40%
1.2
128+4
4.0
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.6
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II72
0%
0.3
520-15
3.6
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.9
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches