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Tartu Welco vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 20/04/2025
Time: 09:30
Final 1-0
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Vs
55%
23%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tartu Welco winâś“ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II winâś— Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-660W11D11D10W32W11D13L31W10W33DH·JK 24/10A·VII27/10H·FC 03/11A·FLO10/11H·LUU01/03H·TAL06/03A·ELV15/03H·FC 29/03A·NĂ•M06/04A·FLO13/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.432.131.601.871.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.501.391.381.621.601.20
vs Weaker (12)2.751.503.001.572.401.40
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D23L24L13L02L12L11D41W10W32WH·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11A·FLO02/03H·NĂ•M09/03A·FC 16/03H·TAL29/03A·LUU06/04H·ELV13/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.001.871.801.002.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.422.041.851.771.002.31
vs Weaker (4)1.501.752.002.001.001.50
Clean sheet %10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.6%
1-0 âś“
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
04.6%3.6%2.9%1.2%0.4%
16.5%10%5.9%2.5%0.8%
27.7%9.7%6.1%2.6%0.8%
35.3%6.6%4.2%1.7%0.6%
42.7%3.4%2.1%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Tartu Welco is 0.50 points better than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco is 0.39 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Tartu Welco is 0.31 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D00D11D10W01L10W00D12LH·JK 24/10A·VII27/10H·FC 03/11A·FLO10/11H·LUU01/03H·TAL06/03A·ELV15/03H·FC 29/03A·NĂ•M06/04A·FLO13/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.670.730.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.610.670.500.620.700.70
vs Weaker (12)0.920.920.860.861.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D23L11D01L02L00D31W00D30WH·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11A·FLO02/03H·NĂ•M09/03A·FC 16/03H·TAL29/03A·LUU06/04H·ELV13/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.901.200.730.471.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.810.921.150.690.461.15
vs Weaker (4)1.000.751.501.000.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W10W11D10W21W01L12L21W10W21WH·JK 24/10A·VII27/10H·FC 03/11A·FLO10/11H·LUU01/03H·TAL06/03A·ELV15/03H·FC 29/03A·NĂ•M06/04A·FLO13/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.671.470.871.070.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.890.720.881.000.900.50
vs Weaker (12)1.830.582.140.711.400.40
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L02L01L10W11D10W10W02LH·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11A·FLO02/03H·NĂ•M09/03A·FC 16/03H·TAL29/03A·LUU06/04H·ELV13/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.100.671.070.531.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.621.120.691.080.541.15
vs Weaker (4)0.501.000.501.000.501.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.2%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
TW wins
2
Draws
1
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tartu Welco vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from TW
DateH/AGameScore
19/09/24AFCI Levadia II Vs TW1-0
20/07/24HTW Vs FCI Levadia II1-1
26/05/24AFCI Levadia II Vs TW2-2
21/04/24HTW Vs FCI Levadia II3-2

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/25AFlora II Vs TW3-3
06/04/25ANõmme United Vs TW0-1
29/03/25HTW Vs FC Tallinn3-1
15/03/25AElva Vs TW3-1
06/03/25HTW Vs Tallinna Kalev II1-1
01/03/25HTW Vs Luunja3-2
10/11/24AFlora II Vs TW0-1
03/11/24HTW Vs FC Tallinn1-1
27/10/24AViimsi Vs TW1-1
24/10/24HTW Vs JK Tabasalu6-0

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/25HFLI Vs Elva3-2
06/04/25ALuunja Vs FLI0-1
29/03/25HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II4-1
16/03/25AFC Tallinn Vs FLI1-1
09/03/25HFLI Vs Nõmme United1-2
02/03/25AFlora II Vs FLI2-0
10/11/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI3-1
02/11/24HFLI Vs Flora II2-4
28/10/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FLI3-2
24/10/24HFLI Vs Elva0-0

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWD1.69
HomeWDWDW1.62
AwayDWLWD1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%43%48%
AVG goals3.243.433.05
Over 1.5 %79%86%71%
Over 2.5 %57%62%52%
Over 3.5 %45%48%43%
Scored1.952.001.90
Conceded1.291.431.14
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet29%29%29%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.22
HomeDLLWW1.56
AwayLLLDW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals3.503.483.52
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %74%84%64%
Over 3.5 %46%40%52%
Scored1.641.961.32
Conceded1.861.522.20
BTTS66%60%72%
Clean Sheet18%28%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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