Tartu Welco vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Tartu Welco hosts FCI Levadia II in an Estonia: Esiliiga A match. Recent form suggests a storyline, with Tartu Welco coming off a win and FCI Levadia II recovering from a defeat. However, attacking and defensive numbers drive the expectation of a high-scoring match, with 3.4 goals on average expected. Tartu Welco's home scoring and conceding rates are similar to the opponent's strength, averaging 2 goals scored and 2.12 conceded. FCI Levadia II's away scoring and conceding rates are also similar, averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2 conceded.

The model favors a home win, with a 42% chance of success. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.7%. The expected total goals is 3. The model's selection for over 1.5 goals has an 86.1% chance of occurring. The model's suggested picks include over 1.5 goals, with a home win percentage of 42%, a draw percentage of 25%, and an away win percentage of 34%.

The model’s prediction proved spot on, with Tartu Welco securing a 4-2 home win and extending their three-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 42 % probability and was correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, yet the game produced six goals, exceeding the expected 3.4. Every suggested pick was addressed: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 92.1 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 90.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals missed at 89.4 %, Over 1.5 hit at 86.1 %, Under 2.5 HT goals missed at 85.8 %, and Home over 0.5 goals hit at 83.2 %. The selections largely aligned with the outcome, underscoring the model’s accuracy.