This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
1.50
2.40
1.13
2.93
1.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.50
1.69
2.00
1.43
2.89
1.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.86
1.29
2.75
0.88
3.00
1.83
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
14.0%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.2%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
Flora II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
8.0%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.8%
8.7%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.6%
4.0%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.60
Trans Narva
2.40
Kuressaare
2.25
Laagri
2.25
Vaprus
2.25
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.25
JK Tabasalu
2.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.25
Tamper
2.25
Paide
2.00
Elva
2.00
Phoenix
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
LÃĪÃĪnemaa Haapsalu
2.00
Helios
2.00
Legion
1.75
NÃĩmme United
1.50
Tammeka
1.50
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
Kohtla-JÃĪrve
1.50
Maksatransport
1.50
Inter Tartu
1.50
Ararat (Estonia)
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Starmedia
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Vastseliina
1.50
Flora II
1.33
Tulevik
1.33
Hiiumaa
1.33
Tartu Welco
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
KUBIK
1.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
PÃĪrnu
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Saue
0.00
JÃĪrva-Jaani
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Eston Villa
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
Saku Sporting
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Hell Hunt
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
GameSport
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Vigri MaarjamÃĪe
0.00
Pelgu City
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Poseidon
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Smsraha
0.00
NPM Silmet
0.00
Saare Latte
0.00
Loo
0.00
Tartu Welco is 0.33 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tammeka
12.50
Laagri
11.00
Vaprus
6.25
Kalju Nomme
6.00
Tallinna Kalev
5.50
Kuressaare
5.25
Elva
4.67
NÃĩmme United
4.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
4.40
Tartu Kalev
4.33
Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Trans Narva
3.80
LÃĪÃĪnemaa Haapsalu
3.67
JK Tabasalu
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.00
Hiiumaa
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.00
Vastseliina
3.00
NPM Silmet
3.00
Phoenix
2.50
Legion
2.50
Team Helm
2.50
Tamper
2.50
Helios
2.50
Kohtla-JÃĪrve
2.00
Starmedia
2.00
Saare Latte
2.00
Loo
2.00
FC Tallinn
1.75
Flora II
1.67
Tulevik
1.67
Maksatransport
1.50
Inter Tartu
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Ararat (Estonia)
1.50
Paide
1.33
Tartu Welco
1.00
PÃĪrnu
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Kose
1.00
Eston Villa
1.00
FC Kohvile
1.00
Saku Sporting
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Welco X
1.00
Poseidon
1.00
EstHam United
1.00
Rumori Calcio
1.00
Smsraha
1.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Saue
0.00
JÃĪrva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
GameSport
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Vigri MaarjamÃĪe
0.00
Pelgu City
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Tartu Welco is 0.67 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kuressaare
0.50
Helios
0.50
Trans Narva
0.60
Paide
0.67
Kalju Nomme
0.67
Laagri
0.75
Vaprus
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Tammeka
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Viimsi
1.00
JK Tabasalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.25
Elva
1.33
NÃĩmme United
1.50
Phoenix
1.50
Legion
1.50
LÃĪÃĪnemaa Haapsalu
1.67
Flora Tallinn
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Maksatransport
2.00
Hiiumaa
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
2.50
Vastseliina
2.50
Flora II
2.67
Tartu Kalev
2.67
Tamper
2.75
PÃĪrnu
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Raplamaa
3.00
JÃĪrva-Jaani
3.00
FC Kohvile
3.00
Hell Hunt
3.00
Starmedia
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Lootos
3.00
Welco X
3.00
EstHam United
3.00
Smsraha
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.50
Team Helm
3.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.50
Saue
4.00
Kuusalu Kalev
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Poseidon
4.00
NPM Silmet
4.00
Loo
4.00
Kohtla-JÃĪrve
4.50
Kristiine JK
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
5.00
Rumori Calcio
5.00
Ararat (Estonia)
5.50
Tallinna Kalev III
6.00
Kose
6.00
Flora III
6.00
Saare Latte
6.00
Vigri MaarjamÃĪe
7.00
Pelgu City
7.00
Inter Tartu
7.50
Tallinna Wolves
8.00
Eston Villa
11.00
Olympic
11.00
Maardu Aliens
12.00
TransferWise
15.00
GameSport
24.00
Kose II
26.00
Tartu Welco is 1.67 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.67).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tartu Welco or Drawâ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
29%
covers Tartu Welco + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco or Flora IIâ Miss
70.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
29%
covers Tartu Welco + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flora IIâ Hit
58.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tartu Welco, so a minus line means Tartu Welco give that many goals of a start and Flora II receive them. At -1, Tartu Welco must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tartu Welco win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tartu Welco)Actual: Flora II
Tartu Welco -2
7.4%
Draw -2
12.7%
Flora II +2
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tartu Welco)Actual: Flora II
Tartu Welco -1
20.1%
Draw -1
21.4%
Flora II +1
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tartu Welco)Actual: Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco +1
70.8%
Draw +1
17.1%
Flora II -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tartu Welco)Actual: Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco +2
87.9%
Draw +2
8.4%
Flora II -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.15
0.45
0.70
0.40
1.60
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.55
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.33
0.75
0.50
1.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
65% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.77
1.13
0.53
1.13
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.88
0.86
0.71
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.64
1.38
0.38
0.83
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
0.60
1.10
0.70
0.60
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.64
0.83
0.67
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
45% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.73
1.27
0.60
1.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.38
0.81
1.14
0.71
1.56
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.64
1.38
0.50
2.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Draw
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →