Tartu Welco and Flora II are set to face off in the Estonia: Esiliiga A league. The recent form of both teams suggests a high-scoring match, with Tartu Welco struggling after three consecutive defeats and Flora II coming off a loss. The expected total goals stands at 3.4, indicating a potentially open encounter. In terms of probabilities, Flora II are the favourites to win, with a 40% chance, followed by a 36% chance of a Tartu Welco win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model's selection is an away win. The most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.8%. Tartu Welco have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded at home, while Flora II have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded away from home. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a high probability of 85.8%. The probabilities for each outcome are: home win 36%, draw 25%, away win 40%. The model's suggested picks are: Over 1.5 (85.8%), with no edge information available.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Tartu Welco defeated Flora II 2-1 on the road, extending their win streak. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect as the pre-match favourite, Flora II, failed to come through with a 40% chance of winning. The model's probability of Flora II winning was 40%, but it was not the case. The model's selection of an away win had a 40% probability. The model's call on Flora II winning was wrong. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit with a probability of 85.8%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tartu Welco win✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied 61.9% · @ 1.45
Edge
-26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Dafabet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.76
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Pinnacle
4.84
Dafabet
4.80
Flora II win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied 19.2% · @ 4.68
Edge
+20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.20
1xBet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
William Hil
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
1.53
2.50
1.42
2.78
1.61
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
2.70
1.50
2.33
1.44
3.00
1.55
vs Weaker (9)
2.78
1.22
3.00
1.33
2.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.70
1.69
1.69
1.82
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
2.11
1.44
1.89
0.80
2.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.91
1.00
2.25
1.25
3.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.8%
@ 1.04-4.7%
Under 1.5
14.2%
@ 10.00+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Under
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.2%
@ 1.19-12.1%
Under 2.5
34.8%
@ 4.04+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.2%
@ 1.50-17.4%
Under 3.5
56.8%
@ 2.31+17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathonbet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Unibet
2.15
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
@ 1.28-5.2%
No
32.9%
@ 3.32+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
No
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 11.00+6.9%
1-2
8.5%@ 15.50+5.7%
2-1 ✓
8.0%@ 8.83+3.2%
2-2
6.9%@ 10.92+3.0%
0-2
5.2%@ 36.50+4.0%
0-1
5.0%@ 27.50+3.5%
1-3
4.9%@ 27.50+3.3%
1-0
4.7%@ 16.33+2.1%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
Flora II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
5.0%
5.2%
3.0%
1.3%
1
4.7%
11%
8.5%
4.9%
2.1%
2
4.6%
8.0%
6.9%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.5%
4.4%
3.8%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tartu Welco is 0.23 points better than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tartu Welco is 0.81 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tartu Welco is 0.51 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.00
0.92
1.28
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.00
1.00
0.89
1.55
1.09
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
0.92
0.69
1.06
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
1.11
0.78
0.89
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.18
1.25
0.25
2.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.60
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.40
0.50
1.33
0.56
1.45
0.45
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.77
1.00
0.76
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.82
1.00
1.00
1.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.8%
1.04
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-4.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Tallinna Kalev
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II