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Tartu Welco vs JK Tabasalu Result & Analysis

Date: 24/10/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 6-0
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Vs
62%
20%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Tartu Welco win✓ Hit
62.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu win✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D31W00D40W30W01L22D10W14L24LA·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09A·FCI19/09H·PAI22/09A·ELV28/09H·LAA04/10A·TAL18/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.371.731.672.201.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.561.381.441.561.711.14
vs Weaker (14)2.431.362.171.832.621.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (JK Tabasalu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L13L04L13L14L13L24L12L03LH·FC 17/08A·VII20/08H·TAL24/08H·TAR31/08A·ELV15/09H·FLO19/09A·FC 24/09A·TAL28/09H·VII05/10H·ELV20/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.801.002.470.803.13
vs Stronger (10)0.502.700.832.670.002.75
vs Similar (20)1.102.851.112.331.093.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.9%
Under 2.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.9%
No
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.5%
3-1
7.5%
2-0
7.4%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
5.4%
1-2
4.9%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
JK Tabasalu goals →
01234
03.3%2.4%2.0%0.9%0.3%
15.4%8.5%4.9%2.1%0.6%
27.4%9.3%5.9%2.5%0.8%
35.9%7.5%4.7%2.0%0.6%
43.6%4.5%2.8%1.2%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = JK Tabasalu goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Tartu Welco is 1.22 points better than JK Tabasalu in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.44).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Tartu Welco is 0.97 goals better than JK Tabasalu in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 0.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Tartu Welco is 1.58 goals better than JK Tabasalu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 2.81).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D10W00D00D12L10W02L13LA·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09A·FCI19/09H·PAI22/09A·ELV28/09H·LAA04/10A·TAL18/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.730.530.801.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.880.690.560.671.290.71
vs Weaker (14)1.000.790.501.001.380.62
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (JK Tabasalu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D01L01L02L12L02L10W01LH·FC 17/08A·VII20/08H·TAL24/08H·TAR31/08A·ELV15/09H·FLO19/09A·FC 24/09A·TAL28/09H·VII05/10H·ELV20/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.130.530.870.271.40
vs Stronger (10)0.301.000.500.830.001.25
vs Similar (20)0.451.200.560.890.361.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W00D30W30W01L10W00D12L11DA·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09A·FCI19/09H·PAI22/09A·ELV28/09H·LAA04/10A·TAL18/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.631.200.870.870.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.690.890.890.430.43
vs Weaker (14)1.430.571.670.831.250.38
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (JK Tabasalu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D02L03L12L12L01L22D02L02LH·FC 17/08A·VII20/08H·TAL24/08H·TAR31/08A·ELV15/09H·FLO19/09A·FC 24/09A·TAL28/09H·VII05/10H·ELV20/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.670.471.600.531.73
vs Stronger (10)0.201.700.331.830.001.50
vs Similar (20)0.651.650.561.440.731.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JK Tabasalu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
TW wins
0
Draws
0
JT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tartu Welco vs JK Tabasalu · H/A from TW
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24AJK Tabasalu Vs TW0-4
30/05/24AJK Tabasalu Vs TW1-3
09/03/24HTW Vs JK Tabasalu2-0

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs TW4-2
04/10/24HTW Vs Laagri1-4
28/09/24AElva Vs TW0-1
22/09/24HTW Vs Paide II2-2
19/09/24AFCI Levadia II Vs TW1-0
14/09/24HTW Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-0
31/08/24AJK Tabasalu Vs TW0-4
24/08/24HTW Vs Elva0-0
20/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs TW1-3
17/08/24ALaagri Vs TW1-1

JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/24HJT Vs Elva0-3
05/10/24HJT Vs Viimsi1-2
28/09/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs JT4-2
24/09/24AFC Tallinn Vs JT3-1
19/09/24HJT Vs Flora II1-4
15/09/24AElva Vs JT3-1
31/08/24HJT Vs Tartu Welco0-4
24/08/24HJT Vs Tallinna Kalev II1-3
20/08/24AViimsi Vs JT1-0
17/08/24HJT Vs FC Tallinn1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL1.62
HomeLDWDL1.44
AwayWWLWL1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%38%50%
AVG goals3.223.313.12
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %59%62%56%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.911.752.06
Conceded1.311.561.06
BTTS59%56%62%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners---
Cards---
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.78
HomeLLLLL0.96
AwayLLLLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals3.943.844.04
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %80%80%80%
Over 3.5 %58%60%56%
Scored1.421.641.20
Conceded2.522.202.84
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet12%20%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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