The model points to a Tartu Welco victory as the most likely outcome, giving the home side a 67% chance of winning. That confidence comes from their strong home form against weaker opponents, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Nõmme Kalju II struggles on the road, having not scored in their last five away games and conceding four on average. The expected total of four goals is high, yet the most probable total is 6 + goals, with a 21% chance, reflecting the model’s belief in a high-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Tartu Welco, with an 8.7% probability, a figure that sits comfortably within the overall goal expectation. Home win probability is 67%, draw 18%, away win 16%. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 at 91.4% and Over 2.5 at 76.0%. The recent form narrative - Tartu Welco coming off a defeat, Nõmme Kalju II off a win - adds context but does not alter the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came as Tartu Welco, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the expected home win, losing 0-1 to Nõmme Kalju II. The model had picked a home victory with a 67% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The predicted 6+ total was also missed, and the Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 selections - both at 91.4% and 76.0% respectively - failed to materialise. Nõmme Kalju II, riding a win after a 2-0 triumph over FC Tallinn, capitalised on a Tartu Welco form that had recently dipped, ending a 1-3 loss to Viimsi. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away side’s victory and the model’s call was incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tartu Welco win✗ Miss
66.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win✓ Hit
15.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.37
2.13
1.53
1.87
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.67
1.44
1.78
1.56
1.56
1.33
vs Weaker (12)
2.50
1.25
2.67
1.50
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.67
1.50
2.38
1.00
3.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.40
1.33
3.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
2.88
1.25
2.50
1.25
3.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
91.4%
Under 1.5
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
76.0%
Under 2.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.2%
No
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%
3-1
7.8%
1-1
7.1%
2-0
6.8%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
4-1
5.3%
3-2
5.1%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
1.7%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
1
4.4%
7.1%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
2
6.8%
8.7%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
6.1%
7.8%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
4
4.1%
5.3%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Tartu Welco is 0.50 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco is 0.56 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Tartu Welco is 0.64 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 2.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.80
0.93
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.83
0.78
1.00
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.75
1.12
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.53
1.33
0.60
1.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.61
1.00
0.56
1.11
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.67
0.42
1.83
0.67
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.73
0.75
1.25
0.71
2.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.00
0.67
1.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
2.00
0.75
1.50
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Nõmme United
Viimsi
Elva
Flora II
FCI Levadia II
FC Tallinn
Tallinna Kalev II
Luunja
Phoenix