Tartu Welco’s recent form, after a 1-3 loss to Viimsi, shows a team still capable of scoring 2.25 goals per game at home against weaker opposition, while conceding 1.25. Nõmme Kalju II, fresh from a 2-0 win over FC Tallinn, averages 1.2 goals scored and 3.0 conceded on the road against stronger sides, hinting at a defensive struggle. The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an average of 3.4 goals, most likely totaling three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.2% chance. Home victory is favoured, with a 49% chance, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 28%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.5%), Under 6.5 (93.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Home +2 handicap (87.0%), Over 1.5 (86.7%), Under 5.5 (86.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.2%), and Home under 3.5 goals (86.1%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tartu Welco win
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.70
2.43
1.64
2.81
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
2.60
1.65
2.27
1.73
3.00
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.44
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.50
2.44
1.50
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
3.00
1.33
3.00
1.20
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.82
1.33
2.22
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
1.00
4.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.9%
Under 2.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 3.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
1-0
5.4%
3-2
4.4%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.8%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
1
5.4%
10%
6.8%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.2%
9.2%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
4.1%
6.0%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
4
2.0%
3.0%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tartu Welco is 1.00 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tartu Welco is 1.73 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tartu Welco is 0.83 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tartu Welco or Draw
72.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
28%
covers Tartu Welco + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco or Nõmme Kalju II
76.4%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
28%
covers Tartu Welco + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II
51.4%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
28%
covers Draw + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5
Over
86.2%
Under
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tartu Welco, so a minus line means Tartu Welco give that many goals of a start and Nõmme Kalju II receive them. At -1, Tartu Welco must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tartu Welco win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco -2
13.5%
Draw -2
14.9%
Nõmme Kalju II +2
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco -1
28.4%
Draw -1
20.2%
Nõmme Kalju II +1
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco +1
72.3%
Draw +1
14.8%
Nõmme Kalju II -1
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco +2
87.0%
Draw +2
8.2%
Nõmme Kalju II -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.81
0.75
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.27
0.50
0.83
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.89
0.78
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.55
1.27
0.73
1.44
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.69
1.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.83
2.17
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.29
0.44
1.44
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II