Tartu Welco are set to host Nõmme United II in a match that the model predicts will be high-scoring, with an average of 3.7 goals expected. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9% chance. The home side has been prolific at home against weaker opponents, averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while the away side, playing away against a stronger opponent, averages only one goal scored and four conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 50% chance, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 27%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.5%), Under 6.5 (91.6%), Over 1.5 (89.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.4%), Home +2 handicap (86.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (82.9%), and Under 5.5 (82.7%). Tartu Welco have recently come off a defeat, while Nõmme United II are still recovering from two straight losses.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tartu Welco win
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II win
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.70
2.43
1.64
2.81
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
2.60
1.65
2.27
1.73
3.00
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.44
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.78
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.80
1.60
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.8%
No
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
5.6%
3-2
5.0%
1-0
4.4%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
Nõmme United II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
1
4.4%
9.0%
6.4%
3.4%
1.3%
2
5.6%
8.8%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
4.0%
6.3%
5.0%
2.6%
1.0%
4
2.2%
3.4%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = Nõmme United II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tartu Welco is 0.61 points better than Nõmme United II in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tartu Welco is 1.62 goals better than Nõmme United II in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tartu Welco is 0.10 goals worse than Nõmme United II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tartu Welco or Draw
72.7%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
27%
covers Tartu Welco + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco or Nõmme United II
77.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
27%
covers Tartu Welco + Nõmme United II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme United II
49.7%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
27%
covers Draw + Nõmme United II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tartu Welco, so a minus line means Tartu Welco give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United II receive them. At -1, Tartu Welco must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tartu Welco win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco -2
15.2%
Draw -2
15.3%
Nõmme United II +2
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco -1
30.5%
Draw -1
19.8%
Nõmme United II +1
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco +1
72.7%
Draw +1
14.2%
Nõmme United II -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.1%
Nõmme United II -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.55
1.27
0.73
1.44
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
0.80
0.80
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
FC Tallinn
Nõmme Kalju II