Tartu Welco’s recent form, a string of wins punctuated by a loss, suggests a team eager to maintain momentum at home, while Tallinna Kalev, after two straight defeats, is looking to rebound on the road. The model favours a home win, giving Tartu Welco a 41% chance, a draw 24%, and a 35% chance for Kalev. The expected total goals is 3.5, with the most probable total being three goals at a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.1% chance. Tartu Welco averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against weaker opposition at home, whereas Kalev concedes 3.3 and scores 1.3 away against stronger opponents. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.3%), Under 6.5 (93.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.6%), Over 1.5 (87.5%), Under 5.5 (85.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (84.0%), and Home +2 handicap (82.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tartu Welco win
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev win
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.70
2.43
1.64
2.81
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
2.60
1.65
2.27
1.73
3.00
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.44
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
2.50
1.62
2.08
2.00
2.82
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
3.06
1.50
2.38
1.22
3.67
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.92
1.80
1.60
2.14
2.14
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.4%
No
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.1%
2-0
5.0%
1-0
4.5%
1-3
4.3%
Tartu Welco goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.1%
4.2%
2.4%
1.0%
1
4.5%
10%
7.7%
4.3%
1.8%
2
5.0%
8.4%
7.1%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.0%
5.1%
4.3%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.4%
2.4%
2.0%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tartu Welco goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Tartu Welco is 0.12 points worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Tartu Welco is 1.00 goals better than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Tartu Welco is 0.12 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tartu Welco or Draw
65.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
24%
35%
covers Tartu Welco + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco or Tallinna Kalev
76.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
24%
35%
covers Tartu Welco + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
58.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
24%
35%
covers Draw + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tartu Welco, so a minus line means Tartu Welco give that many goals of a start and Tallinna Kalev receive them. At -1, Tartu Welco must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tartu Welco win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco -2
10.0%
Draw -2
12.6%
Tallinna Kalev +2
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco -1
22.5%
Draw -1
18.5%
Tallinna Kalev +1
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco +1
65.1%
Draw +1
17.0%
Tallinna Kalev -1
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tartu Welco)
Tartu Welco +2
82.0%
Draw +2
10.6%
Tallinna Kalev -2
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.77
0.85
0.71
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.76
0.62
1.12
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.55
1.27
0.73
1.44
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.85
1.23
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.29
0.88
1.25
0.89
1.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
0.80
1.20
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II