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Tauras vs Be1 NFA Result & Analysis

Date: 02/11/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 0-1
Tauras
Tauras
Vs
53%
26%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tauras are favoured to win, with a 53% chance of taking the match home, a 26% draw probability and a 20% chance of Be1 NFA triumphing. The model expects 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.6% event. Tauras, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Be1 NFA, on the road to a weaker side, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 75.4% probability, and Under 3.5 at 72.4%. Tauras have a 53% win chance, a 26% draw chance, and Be1 NFA a 20% win chance. The recent form story: Tauras come off a draw after a 2-2 against BFA, whereas Be1 NFA are riding a three-game winning streak, having beaten Ekranas 5-0.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Tauras fell to a 0-1 defeat, a result that broke their recent streak of draws and left them still struggling at home. The pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win call with a 53% probability, proved wrong. The model’s other selections also fell short: Over 1.5, projected at 75.4%, missed, while Under 3.5, at 72.4%, hit. Tauras had been in a mixed run, coming off a draw, whereas Be1 NFA were on a three-game winning streak, having just crushed Ekranas 5-0. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away side’s triumph and the model’s predictions missed the mark on every front.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tauras win✗ Miss
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TaurasTauras

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D10W22D21W11D40W01L20W21W13LA·HEG17/08H·GAR24/08A·BAN04/09A·ATM14/09H·BAB21/09A·PAN27/09H·NEP05/10A·KAU13/10H·NEV19/10A·FA 25/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.132.270.931.871.33
vs Stronger (8)0.751.750.751.750.751.75
vs Similar (8)1.621.001.501.001.751.00
vs Weaker (14)3.070.863.570.432.571.29
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L31W20W10W11D22D50W14L22D00DA·ATM17/08H·PAN23/08H·KAU30/08A·BFA14/09H·EKR20/09A·GAR28/09H·MIN04/10A·NEP18/10A·NEV26/10A·BAB30/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.900.902.270.601.531.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.601.002.500.501.001.33
vs Weaker (25)1.960.882.230.621.671.17
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-0
10.7%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
0-1 ✓
5.6%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Tauras goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
01234
08.2%5.6%3.3%1.1%0.3%
111%13%5.5%1.8%0.4%
210%9.7%4.7%1.5%0.4%
35.6%5.4%2.6%0.8%0.2%
42.4%2.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
Tauras is 0.53 points worse than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 2.10).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
Tauras is 0.07 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
Tauras is 0.17 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.87).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TaurasTauras

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D21W01L10W20W00D10W11D10WA·HEG17/08H·GAR24/08A·BAN04/09A·ATM14/09H·BAB21/09A·PAN27/09H·NEP05/10A·KAU13/10H·NEV19/10A·FA 25/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.340.930.330.790.36
vs Stronger (8)0.500.620.500.750.500.50
vs Similar (8)0.880.250.750.251.000.25
vs Weaker (13)1.080.231.290.140.830.33
Clean sheet %66% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W10W01L10W20W12L10W00DA·ATM17/08H·PAN23/08H·KAU30/08A·BFA14/09H·EKR20/09A·GAR28/09H·MIN04/10A·NEP18/10A·NEV26/10A·BAB30/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.301.070.200.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.800.201.500.000.330.33
vs Weaker (25)0.840.321.000.230.670.42
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TaurasTauras

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L10W01L20W01L20W01L10W10W03LA·HEG17/08H·GAR24/08A·BAN04/09A·ATM14/09H·BAB21/09A·PAN27/09H·NEP05/10A·KAU13/10H·NEV19/10A·FA 25/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.831.330.600.641.07
vs Stronger (8)0.251.120.251.000.251.25
vs Similar (8)0.750.750.750.750.750.75
vs Weaker (13)1.620.692.290.290.831.17
Clean sheet %48% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W10W00D10W12L30W02L12L00DA·ATM17/08H·PAN23/08H·KAU30/08A·BFA14/09H·EKR20/09A·GAR28/09H·MIN04/10A·NEP18/10A·NEV26/10A·BAB30/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.631.200.400.800.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.800.801.000.500.671.00
vs Weaker (25)1.040.601.230.380.830.83
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
TAU wins
0
Draws
1
BN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tauras vs Be1 NFA · H/A from TAU
DateH/AGameScore
14/06/24ABe1 NFA Vs TAU2-1

TaurasTauras

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/24AFA Šiauliai II Vs TAU3-1
19/10/24HTAU Vs Nevėžis2-1
13/10/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs TAU0-2
05/10/24HTAU Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
27/09/24APanevėžys II Vs TAU0-4
21/09/24HTAU Vs Babrungas1-1
14/09/24AAtmosfera Vs TAU1-2
04/09/24ABanga II Vs TAU2-2
24/08/24HTAU Vs Garliava1-0
17/08/24AHegelmann II Vs TAU3-3

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/24ABabrungas Vs BN0-0
26/10/24ANevėžis Vs BN2-2
18/10/24ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BN4-1
04/10/24HBN Vs Minija5-0
28/09/24AGarliava Vs BN2-2
20/09/24HBN Vs Ekranas1-1
14/09/24ABFA Vs BN0-1
30/08/24HBN Vs Kauno Žalgiris II2-0
23/08/24HBN Vs Panevėžys II3-1
17/08/24AAtmosfera Vs BN1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tauras
Tauras
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.57
HomeWWDLW1.93
AwayDWWWL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%60%27%
AVG goals3.203.203.20
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %63%60%67%
Over 3.5 %43%40%47%
Scored2.072.271.87
Conceded1.130.931.33
BTTS47%40%53%
Clean Sheet37%40%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDD2.00
HomeWWWDW2.36
AwayWDLDD1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%72%48%
AVG goals2.682.922.44
Over 1.5 %76%88%64%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.782.081.48
Conceded0.900.840.96
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet38%36%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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