Tauras, coming off a 2-2 draw, faces Be1 NFA, who are on a three-game winning streak after a 5-0 demolition of Ekranas. The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance, a 25% draw probability and a 32% chance for Be1 NFA. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% probability. Tauras averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Be1 NFA averages 2.08 scored and 1.23 conceded away against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Under 6.5 (95.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.8%), Under 5.5 (88.9%), Over 1.5 (84.6%), Home +2 handicap (84.6%), and Home over 0.5 goals (82.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tauras win
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
1.53
1.60
1.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
2.12
1.38
1.33
2.67
2.60
0.60
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
2.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
0.93
1.89
1.00
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.14
1.71
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
2.50
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (26)
1.62
1.35
1.15
1.46
2.08
1.23
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.3%
Under 2.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.1%
Under 3.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.8%
Tauras goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.5%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
1
6.0%
11%
7.3%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.1%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.8%
5.5%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Tauras and Be1 NFA are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Tauras is 0.17 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Tauras is 0.17 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tauras or Draw
70.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Tauras + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tauras or Be1 NFA
75.2%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Tauras + Be1 NFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Be1 NFA
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Draw + Be1 NFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tauras over/under 0.5
Over
83.7%
Under
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 3.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tauras, so a minus line means Tauras give that many goals of a start and Be1 NFA receive them. At -1, Tauras must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tauras win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tauras)
Tauras -2
11.3%
Draw -2
14.0%
Be1 NFA +2
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tauras)
Tauras -1
25.3%
Draw -1
20.1%
Be1 NFA +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tauras)
Tauras +1
70.1%
Draw +1
15.8%
Be1 NFA -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tauras)
Tauras +2
85.9%
Draw +2
8.9%
Be1 NFA -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.40
0.93
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
0.62
0.33
1.67
1.60
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.47
0.56
0.44
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.73
0.50
0.77
0.54
0.69
0.46
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.13
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.47
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.43
1.07
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.85
0.38
0.92
1.38
0.77
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →