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Tauras vs BFA Result & Analysis

Date: 22/06/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 4-0
Tauras
Tauras
Vs
60%
23%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tauras are the clear favourites, with a 60% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of a BFA win. The model predicts an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 10.6%. Tauras have been prolific at home, scoring 3.25 goals per game and conceding only 0.5 against weaker opposition, while BFA, on the road to stronger teams, averages 1.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. The model’s only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.3% probability. Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, each ending 2-2. The overall shape of the game points to a comfortable home win for Tauras, with plenty of chances for both sides to find the net.

Results analysis

The win extends Tauras’ recent run, as they finished their last match with a 2-2 draw and now secure a 4-0 triumph over BFA. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win at 60 percent, and it proved correct. The suggested selection Over 1.5, with an 82.3 percent probability, hit as well. Tauras’ dominant home form - scoring an average of 3.25 goals and conceding only 0.5 - was evident, while BFA’s away struggles, conceding 0.71 on average, were highlighted. The final score of 4-0 confirmed the model’s predictions, delivering a decisive victory for the home side.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tauras win✓ Hit
60.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TaurasTauras

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-880W21W22D04L13L12L50W01L50W12LA·AVE20/04H·ATM27/04A·BAB02/05H·ŠIA07/05H·PAN12/05A·NEP17/05H·KAU26/05A·NEV01/06H·FA 08/06A·BE114/06
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.941.252.431.291.561.22
vs Stronger (5)0.602.200.004.000.751.75
vs Similar (4)1.251.252.001.500.501.00
vs Weaker (7)3.290.573.250.503.330.67
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W40W01L02L06L02L22D11D33D70WH·NEV13/04A·VEN19/04A·BE126/04H·FK 04/05A·ATM07/05A·HEG13/05H·BAN18/05A·ATM25/05H·PAN02/06H·FA 16/06
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.471.931.431.561.50
vs Stronger (14)1.641.431.432.141.860.71
vs Similar (9)2.671.443.251.002.201.80
vs Weaker (7)0.711.571.330.330.252.50
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.7%
Under 2.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.3%
Under 3.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.6%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.1%
Tauras goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
05.5%3.7%2.4%0.8%0.2%
18.4%11%5.0%1.7%0.4%
29.6%9.9%5.1%1.8%0.5%
36.6%6.8%3.5%1.2%0.3%
43.4%3.5%1.8%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
Tauras is 0.33 points better than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
Tauras is 0.33 goals better than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
Tauras is 0.57 goals better than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TaurasTauras

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W21W01L11D00D10W00D20W01LA·MIN13/04H·ATM27/04A·BAB02/05H·ŠIA07/05H·PAN12/05A·NEP17/05H·KAU26/05A·NEV01/06H·FA 08/06A·BE114/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.331.140.290.500.38
vs Stronger (5)0.400.600.001.000.500.50
vs Similar (4)0.750.251.500.500.000.00
vs Weaker (6)1.170.171.250.001.000.50
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D21W01L01L02L01L10W11D22D30WA·NEP05/04H·NEV13/04A·BE126/04H·FK 04/05A·ATM07/05A·HEG13/05H·BAN18/05A·ATM25/05H·PAN02/06H·FA 16/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.860.570.560.75
vs Stronger (13)0.620.920.711.140.500.67
vs Similar (9)1.000.561.250.000.801.00
vs Weaker (8)0.500.380.670.000.400.60
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TaurasTauras

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D01L03L02L12L40W01L30W11DA·MIN13/04H·ATM27/04A·BAB02/05H·ŠIA07/05H·PAN12/05A·NEP17/05H·KAU26/05A·NEV01/06H·FA 08/06A·BE114/06
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.001.291.000.251.00
vs Stronger (5)0.201.600.003.000.251.25
vs Similar (4)0.501.000.501.000.501.00
vs Weaker (6)1.330.502.000.500.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D00D01L04L01L12L00D11D40WA·NEP05/04H·NEV13/04A·BE126/04H·FK 04/05A·ATM07/05A·HEG13/05H·BAN18/05A·ATM25/05H·PAN02/06H·FA 16/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.831.070.860.810.81
vs Stronger (13)0.850.620.711.001.000.17
vs Similar (9)1.670.892.001.001.400.80
vs Weaker (8)0.251.120.670.330.001.60
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Tauras and BFA have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Tauras and BFA have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Tauras and BFA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Tauras and BFA have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TAU wins
0
Draws
0
BFA wins

Head-to-head

Tauras vs BFA · H/A from TAU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

TaurasTauras

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/06/24ABe1 NFA Vs TAU2-1
08/06/24HTAU Vs FA Šiauliai II5-0
01/06/24ANevėžis Vs TAU1-0
26/05/24HTAU Vs Kauno Žalgiris II5-0
17/05/24ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs TAU2-1
12/05/24HTAU Vs Panevėžys II1-3
07/05/24HTAU Vs Šiauliai0-4
02/05/24ABabrungas Vs TAU2-2
27/04/24HTAU Vs Atmosfera2-1
20/04/24AAve.Ko Vs TAU0-8

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/06/24HBFA Vs FA Šiauliai II7-0
02/06/24HBFA Vs Panevėžys II3-3
25/05/24AAtmosfera Vs BFA1-1
18/05/24HBFA Vs Banga II2-2
13/05/24AHegelmann II Vs BFA2-0
07/05/24AAtmosfera Vs BFA6-0
04/05/24HBFA Vs FK Trakai0-2
26/04/24ABe1 NFA Vs BFA1-0
19/04/24AVenta Vs BFA0-4
13/04/24HBFA Vs Nevėžis2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tauras
Tauras
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.25
HomeWLLWW1.86
AwayWDLLL0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%57%11%
AVG goals3.193.712.78
Over 1.5 %81%100%67%
Over 2.5 %69%86%56%
Over 3.5 %44%57%33%
Scored1.942.431.56
Conceded1.251.291.22
BTTS44%43%44%
Clean Sheet38%43%33%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDW1.30
HomeWLDDW1.68
AwayWLLLD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%20%
AVG goals2.942.962.92
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.481.681.28
Conceded1.461.281.64
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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