Tauras is expected to emerge victorious against Kauno žalgiris II, with a 53% chance of winning at home. The match is likely to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.1 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 11.1% of the time.
Tauras has been performing well at home, scoring 1.89 goals per game against weaker opponents, while conceding just 0.67 goals. In contrast, Kauno žalgiris II has struggled away from home, scoring 1.31 goals per game against stronger opponents, while conceding 2.15 goals.
The model suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, which is expected to hit 83.2% of the time. The other model selections include Home win (53%), Draw (24%), and Away win (23%). The home win percentage is 53%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
Results analysis
The win extends Tauras' run, with the team bouncing back from a previous defeat. In the end, the 4-2 scoreline reflected the model's prediction of a home win, which it got right. The model's selection was the favourite, boasting a 53% chance of success. Another selection that came in was the Over 1.5 goals, which hit at 83.2%. The model's call on the most likely total goals, 3, narrowly missed, while the most likely scores of 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0 all fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tauras win✓ Hit
52.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.00
1.44
1.19
2.07
0.79
vs Stronger (10)
2.00
1.10
1.33
1.50
3.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.75
1.12
1.33
1.67
2.00
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.50
0.83
1.57
0.71
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.93
1.38
1.81
1.50
2.07
vs Stronger (27)
1.37
2.00
1.43
1.86
1.31
2.15
vs Similar (3)
2.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
7.2%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.3%
Tauras goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.3%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
1
7.2%
11%
6.2%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.7%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
3
5.1%
6.2%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.4%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.67
Minija
2.25
Babrungas
2.17
BFA
2.17
Dainava
1.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.67
Tauras
1.60
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Be1 NFA
1.20
Jonava
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Ekranas
0.67
Transinvest 2
0.67
Garliava
0.00
Tauras is 0.40 points better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
3.00
Žalgiris II
2.33
BFA
2.17
Babrungas
1.83
Transinvest 2
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.60
Atmosfera
1.40
Dainava
1.40
Tauras
1.40
Hegelmann II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.00
Jonava
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Garliava
0.20
Tauras is 0.20 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.25
Babrungas
0.50
Dainava
0.80
BFA
0.83
Jonava
1.00
Žalgiris II
1.00
Tauras
1.20
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.60
Garliava
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.00
Transinvest 2
2.33
Hegelmann II
2.50
Ekranas
2.67
Tauras is 0.80 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.56
0.69
0.86
0.36
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
0.50
0.67
0.83
1.75
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.33
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.42
0.57
0.29
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.50
1.06
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (27)
0.67
0.93
0.50
1.07
0.85
0.77
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
0.88
0.50
1.21
0.43
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
0.60
0.67
0.67
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.33
1.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.42
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.29
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
1.07
0.93
0.79
0.46
1.38
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DAI (37)
€3m
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
Tauras and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
BFA
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
FA Šiauliai II
Jonava
Be1 NFA
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava