Tauras and Neptūnė Klaipėda face off in the Lithuania: 1 Lyga. The recent-form storyline is that Neptūnė Klaipėda is on a 2-game winning run, while Tauras is coming off a draw. This match is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.3 goals expected.
The most likely result is an away win for Neptūnė Klaipėda, with a 39% chance. The expected total goals is 3, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% chance. At home, Tauras scores an average of 1.25 goals and concedes 1.25, while away, Neptūnė Klaipėda scores 3.0 goals and concedes 0.67.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 85.6% chance of occurring. This selection also has an edge, with an 8% probability of being correct. The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 39%.
Results analysis
The win extends Tauras's recent run of inconsistent form, coming off a defeat. However, Neptūnų Klaipėda's 3-game winning streak was the more compelling storyline, and it ultimately paid off as the away team secured a 0-2 victory. The model's selection of an away win was correct, given the pre-match probability of 39%. The Over 1.5 goal selection was also a hit, with a probability of 85.6%. Meanwhile, the model's call on the most likely total goals of 3 was not among the predicted scores, which included 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tauras win✗ Miss
36.6%
Avg Implied 46.0% · @ 1.95
Edge
-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.80
Betano
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Neptūną Klaipėda win✓ Hit
38.6%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.19
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.07
1.53
1.33
2.00
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
2.00
1.25
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.11
1.33
1.67
1.83
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
0.92
1.88
0.88
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.90
1.21
0.57
3.38
1.19
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.43
0.25
0.25
3.00
0.67
vs Similar (15)
3.00
0.93
1.43
0.71
4.38
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.25
2.00
0.67
2.00
1.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.18+8.4%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 3.98-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.14
Under
Unibet
4.50
1xBet
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.62+9.0%
Under 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.06-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60
Under
Bet365
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.9%
@ 2.46+5.7%
Under 3.5
57.1%
@ 1.46-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.72
Superbet
2.65
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.9%
@ 1.58+9.8%
No
33.1%
@ 2.10-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.61
BetVictor
1.47
No
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
William Hil
2.15
BetVictor
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 6.46+4.4%
1-2
8.4%@ 10.16+4.3%
2-1
8.1%@ 7.60+2.6%
2-2
6.9%@ 11.10+3.1%
0-2 ✓
5.1%@ 16.29+2.5%
0-1
5.0%@ 10.97+1.2%
1-0
4.8%@ 7.99-0.4%
2-0
4.8%@ 9.20+0.3%
Tauras goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
5.0%
5.1%
2.9%
1.2%
1
4.8%
11%
8.4%
4.7%
2.0%
2
4.8%
8.1%
6.9%
3.9%
1.6%
3
2.6%
4.5%
3.8%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Tauras is 0.36 points worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Tauras is 0.07 goals better than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Tauras is 0.10 goals better than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.47
0.87
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.62
0.25
1.25
1.75
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.78
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.54
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.37
0.71
0.36
1.81
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.29
0.00
0.25
1.67
0.33
vs Similar (15)
1.73
0.33
1.00
0.29
2.38
0.38
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.07
0.47
1.20
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.62
0.75
0.75
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.38
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
0.50
0.21
1.56
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.14
0.25
0.00
1.33
0.33
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.60
0.43
0.43
2.00
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.18
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.14
-
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Tauras and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Tauras and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Tauras and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava