Tauras faces a strong chance of defeat as the model favours a Žalgiris II win, reflecting the visitors’ recent five-game winning streak and a higher average of 2.22 goals scored versus 0.78 conceded. The overall match shape leans toward a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.1 goals and a 23 % probability that the final tally will be exactly two. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8 % chance. Home form shows Tauras scoring 1.0 goal per game and conceding 1.75 against similar opposition, while the away side’s offensive potency outpaces the home side’s defensive frailty. The probabilities for the match outcome are 31 % home win, 26 % draw, and 44 % away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (96.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.7 %), Under 5.5 (90.5 %), Away +2 handicap (85.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (83.3 %), and Over 1.5 (82.6 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tauras win
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II win
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
1.53
1.60
1.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
2.12
1.38
1.33
2.67
2.60
0.60
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
2.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
0.93
1.89
1.00
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.29
2.00
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
2.29
2.25
2.00
1.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
1-3
5.3%
Tauras goals ↓
Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
7.3%
7.1%
4.1%
1.7%
1
5.3%
12%
9.4%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.2%
7.2%
6.1%
3.5%
1.5%
3
1.8%
3.1%
2.7%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = Žalgiris II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Tauras is 1.21 points worse than Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Tauras is 0.64 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Tauras is 0.48 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tauras or Draw
54.2%
Avg Implied -
28%
26%
46%
covers Tauras + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tauras or Žalgiris II
74.1%
Avg Implied -
28%
26%
46%
covers Tauras + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Žalgiris II
71.7%
Avg Implied -
28%
26%
46%
covers Draw + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tauras over/under 0.5
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
81.9%
Under
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tauras, so a minus line means Tauras give that many goals of a start and Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, Tauras must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tauras win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tauras)
Tauras -2
4.3%
Draw -2
8.3%
Žalgiris II +2
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tauras)
Tauras -1
12.6%
Draw -1
15.7%
Žalgiris II +1
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tauras)
Tauras +1
54.2%
Draw +1
20.8%
Žalgiris II -1
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tauras)
Tauras +2
75.0%
Draw +2
14.2%
Žalgiris II -2
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.40
0.93
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
0.62
0.33
1.67
1.60
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.47
0.56
0.44
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.3%
Under 0.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.1%
Under 1.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
Under 2.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.13
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.47
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.50
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
Under 0.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.7%
Under 1.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.7%
Under 2.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Tauras and Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Tauras and Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Tauras and Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Tauras and Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava