The model predicts an away win for Dinamo Ferizaj, with a 42% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover around three, yet the most probable total is two goals, carrying a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 12.2% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Tefik Canga, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded, while Dinamo Ferizaj, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. The model’s selections lean heavily toward low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.6%), Under 5.5 (91.4%), Away +2 handicap (85.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (83.7%), and Over 1.5 (81.5%). These picks underscore a tight, defensively-oriented match where Dinamo Ferizaj’s recent 5-0 win and Tefik Canga’s recent three defeats set the stage for a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tefik Canga win
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj win
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tefik Canga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.70
1.25
1.44
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.33
2.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.56
1.23
1.15
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.17
2.40
1.00
1.60
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.12
1.12
2.46
1.00
1.77
1.23
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
1-0
5.5%
Tefik Canga goals ↓
Dinamo Ferizaj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.8%
6.6%
3.6%
1.5%
1
5.5%
12%
9.1%
5.0%
2.1%
2
4.6%
7.6%
6.3%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.1%
3.5%
2.9%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tefik Canga goals (down), columns = Dinamo Ferizaj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Tefik Canga is 0.91 points worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Tefik Canga is 0.38 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Tefik Canga is 0.44 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tefik Canga or Draw
57.1%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Tefik Canga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga or Dinamo Ferizaj
73.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Tefik Canga + Dinamo Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dinamo Ferizaj
69.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Draw + Dinamo Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tefik Canga, so a minus line means Tefik Canga give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Ferizaj receive them. At -1, Tefik Canga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tefik Canga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga -2
5.2%
Draw -2
9.3%
Dinamo Ferizaj +2
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga -1
14.4%
Draw -1
16.6%
Dinamo Ferizaj +1
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga +1
57.1%
Draw +1
20.1%
Dinamo Ferizaj -1
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga +2
77.2%
Draw +2
13.2%
Dinamo Ferizaj -2
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tefik Canga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.42
0.27
0.36
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.93
0.60
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.62
0.50
0.77
0.69
0.46
0.31
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.6%
Under 0.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
Under 1.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.6%
Under 2.5
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tefik Canga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.00
0.60
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.00
0.91
0.45
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.20
0.33
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.27
0.58
1.38
0.23
1.15
0.92
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
Under 0.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.8%
Under 1.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vëllaznimi
Trepça'89
Liria Prizren
Suhareka
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Vjosa
Ramiz Sadiku
Kika
FC Besa Peja
Trepça Mitrovicë
Prishtina e Re
Istogu
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Ferizaj