Defensive solidity dominates this preview, as both sides have been conceding just over a goal per match. The model favours a home win, with a 46% chance, followed by a 31% draw and a 23% away win. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. Tefik Canga, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Kika, on the road, has managed only 0.42 goals per game while conceding 1.33. Recent form shows Tefik Canga struggling after three straight losses, losing 0-1 to 2 Korriku, while Kika has drawn 0-0 with Mitrovica after a series of defeats. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.3%), Under 4.5 (93.1%) and Home +2 handicap (91.9%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tefik Canga win
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kika win
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Tefik Canga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.70
1.25
1.44
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.33
2.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.56
1.23
1.15
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.17
0.87
0.93
0.33
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.09
1.10
0.80
0.42
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
4.3%
Tefik Canga goals ↓
Kika goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.3%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.7%
8.6%
3.8%
1.1%
0.3%
3
4.3%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tefik Canga goals (down), columns = Kika goals (across).
Advertisement
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
VĂ«llaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Tefik Canga is 0.21 points better than Kika in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
VĂ«llaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Tefik Canga is 0.68 goals better than Kika in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
VĂ«llaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Tefik Canga is 0.32 goals worse than Kika in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tefik Canga or Draw
76.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Tefik Canga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga or Kika
69.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Tefik Canga + Kika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kika
54.1%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Kika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tefik Canga, so a minus line means Tefik Canga give that many goals of a start and Kika receive them. At -1, Tefik Canga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tefik Canga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga -2
8.2%
Draw -2
14.1%
Kika +2
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga -1
22.2%
Draw -1
23.6%
Kika +1
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga +1
76.4%
Draw +1
15.3%
Kika -1
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tefik Canga)
Tefik Canga +2
91.7%
Draw +2
6.2%
Kika -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tefik Canga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.42
0.27
0.36
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.57
0.20
0.53
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.26
0.57
0.20
0.40
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tefik Canga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.00
0.60
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.00
0.91
0.45
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.61
0.60
0.70
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
VĂ«llaznimi
Dinamo Ferizaj
Trepça'89
Liria Prizren
Suhareka
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Vjosa
Ramiz Sadiku
FC Besa Peja
Trepça Mitrovicë
Prishtina e Re
Istogu
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Ferizaj