Defensive solidity dominates the forecast, with both sides averaging just over a goal per game. The model sees the away side edging the contest, picking an away win as the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 1-1 draw, which carries a 14.7 % chance. Tefik Canga, at home, scores 1.09 and concedes 1.18 against similar opposition, while Ramiz Sadiku, on the road, nets 0.89 and concedes only 0.56. Home win probability sits at 29 %, a draw at 32 %, and an away win at 38 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 %), Under 5.5 (97.8 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3 %), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1 %).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ramiz Sadiku, was expected to win with a 38% probability, but the match finished 2-2, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, confirming the unexpected outcome. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore incorrect. The game’s low-scoring nature was reflected in the high confidence of the model’s selections: Under 7.5 (99.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.4%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.2%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9%) hit. Both sides were coming off a draw, with Tefik Canga’s recent form showing a mix of defeats and a win, while Ramiz Sadiku’s form also included a draw. The match confirmed the model’s high probability for low-scoring outcomes, even though the favourite did not prevail.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tefik Canga win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tefik Canga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.67
1.25
1.38
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.33
2.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.54
1.17
1.08
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ramiz Sadiku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ramiz Sadiku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.36
1.14
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
3.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.68
0.89
0.78
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
1.12
2.00
1.75
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.1%
Under 1.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.2%
0-1
12.3%
1-0
10.3%
0-2
7.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.7%
Tefik Canga goals ↓
Ramiz Sadiku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
7.9%
3.0%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
5.7%
6.5%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.9%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tefik Canga goals (down), columns = Ramiz Sadiku goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Tefik Canga is 0.29 points worse than Ramiz Sadiku in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Tefik Canga is 0.26 goals better than Ramiz Sadiku in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Tefik Canga is 0.74 goals worse than Ramiz Sadiku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tefik Canga or Draw✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
32%
38%
covers Tefik Canga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga or Ramiz Sadiku✗ Miss
67.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
32%
38%
covers Tefik Canga + Ramiz Sadiku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ramiz Sadiku✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
32%
38%
covers Draw + Ramiz Sadiku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tefik Canga, so a minus line means Tefik Canga give that many goals of a start and Ramiz Sadiku receive them. At -1, Tefik Canga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tefik Canga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tefik Canga)Actual: Ramiz Sadiku
Tefik Canga -2
3.1%
Draw -2
8.1%
Ramiz Sadiku +2
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tefik Canga)Actual: Ramiz Sadiku
Tefik Canga -1
11.3%
Draw -1
18.2%
Ramiz Sadiku +1
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tefik Canga)Actual: Tefik Canga
Tefik Canga +1
61.7%
Draw +1
21.7%
Ramiz Sadiku -1
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tefik Canga)Actual: Tefik Canga
Tefik Canga +2
83.3%
Draw +2
11.3%
Ramiz Sadiku -2
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tefik Canga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.29
0.57
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.42
0.30
0.30
0.43
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ramiz Sadiku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ramiz Sadiku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.34
0.28
0.50
0.29
0.20
0.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.22
0.38
0.12
0.20
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
72% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.4%
Under 0.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.9%
Under 1.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.4%
Under 2.5
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tefik Canga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
0.93
0.57
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
1.00
0.80
0.40
1.07
1.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ramiz Sadiku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ramiz Sadiku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.66
0.62
0.79
0.86
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.39
0.50
0.62
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
1.14
1.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
45% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.1%
Under 0.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.0%
Under 1.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.1%
Under
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →