PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Telavi vs Aragvi Dusheti Result & Analysis

Date: 22/06/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
Telavi
Telavi
Vs
44%
31%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Telavi a 44% win probability against Aragvi Dusheti in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 on 2026-06-22, with 31% for the draw and 25% for Aragvi Dusheti. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%).

Results analysis

Telavi finished 1-0 against Aragvi Dusheti (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 31% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Telavi win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TelaviTelavi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L33D12L21W30W11D11D10W20W10WH·DIL08/11A·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12H·SAM06/12A·MES10/12H·MES14/12H·GOR30/05A·SHT13/06H·ODI17/06
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.331.191.311.211.36
vs Stronger (18)1.061.610.801.601.381.62
vs Similar (9)1.561.112.251.001.001.20
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L11D22D01L23L10W11D11D32WH·DIN26/11A·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.371.691.311.211.43
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.571.431.691.231.381.75
vs Weaker (8)1.251.251.671.671.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.2%
Under 3.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
13.0%
0-0
12.3%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.5%
Telavi goals ↓
Aragvi Dusheti goals →
01234
012%8.7%4.5%1.4%0.3%
113%14%5.9%1.8%0.4%
29.3%8.4%3.8%1.2%0.3%
34.0%3.7%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.3%1.2%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.43
Odishi 1919
1.57
Gareji
1.57
Aragvi Dusheti
1.57
Sioni
1.43
Samtredia
1.43
Shturmi
1.14
Gori
1.00
Merani Martvili
0.71
Kolkheti Poti
0.71
Telavi is 0.86 points better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
1.86
Gareji
1.43
Aragvi Dusheti
1.43
Sioni
1.29
Gori
1.14
Telavi
1.00
Odishi 1919
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Merani Martvili
0.57
Shturmi
0.57
Telavi is 0.43 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.14
Shturmi
0.86
Odishi 1919
0.86
Gori
1.14
Merani Martvili
1.29
Gareji
1.29
Kolkheti Poti
1.29
Aragvi Dusheti
1.29
Sioni
1.43
Samtredia
1.71
Telavi is 1.14 goals better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals conceded per game (0.14 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TelaviTelavi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L22D01L11D10W01L01L00D10W10WH·DIL08/11A·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12H·SAM06/12A·MES10/12H·MES14/12H·GOR30/05A·SHT13/06H·ODI17/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.560.690.640.71
vs Stronger (18)0.670.830.500.700.881.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.561.000.750.400.40
vs Weaker (3)0.000.330.000.500.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D11D00D11D10W00D11D22DH·DIN26/11A·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.810.500.360.57
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.670.480.920.380.250.62
vs Weaker (8)0.380.620.331.000.400.40
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TelaviTelavi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D11D10W20W10W10W10W10W00DH·DIL08/11A·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12H·SAM06/12A·MES10/12H·MES14/12H·GOR30/05A·SHT13/06H·ODI17/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.620.620.570.64
vs Stronger (18)0.390.780.300.900.500.62
vs Similar (9)0.890.561.250.250.600.80
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D11D01L12L00D11D00D10WH·DIN26/11A·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.880.810.860.86
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (21)0.900.950.770.851.121.12
vs Weaker (8)0.880.621.330.670.600.60
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (23)
€0m
SAM (31)
€0m
GOR (27)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GOR (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
SAM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GOR (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
SAM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GOR (0)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
SAM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TEL wins
0
Draws
0
AD wins

Head-to-head

Telavi vs Aragvi Dusheti · H/A from TEL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

TelaviTelavi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/06/26HTEL Vs Odishi 19191-0
13/06/26AShturmi Vs TEL0-2
30/05/26HTEL Vs Gori1-0
14/12/25HTEL Vs Meshakhte1-1
10/12/25AMeshakhte Vs TEL1-1
06/12/25HTEL Vs Samgurali3-0
01/12/25AGagra Vs TEL1-2
25/11/25HTEL Vs Dinamo Batumi1-2
21/11/25AGareji Vs TEL3-3
08/11/25HTEL Vs Dila0-2

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/06/26HAD Vs Sioni3-2
13/06/26AOdishi 1919 Vs AD1-1
29/05/26HAD Vs Merani Martvili1-1
15/12/25ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs AD0-1
11/12/25HAD Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi2-3
16/12/24HAD Vs Saburtalo II0-1
12/12/24ASaburtalo II Vs AD2-2
08/12/24HAD Vs Shturmi1-1
30/11/24ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs AD1-0
26/11/24HAD Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Telavi
Telavi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW1.22
HomeLWDWW1.46
AwayLDWDW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%25%
AVG goals2.462.272.67
Over 1.5 %66%62%71%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.081.270.88
Conceded1.381.001.79
BTTS42%42%42%
Clean Sheet30%46%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDW1.31
HomeDLLDW1.43
AwayWLDWD1.18
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%39%32%
AVG goals2.713.302.09
Over 1.5 %73%83%64%
Over 2.5 %49%57%41%
Over 3.5 %27%35%18%
Scored1.361.740.95
Conceded1.361.571.14
BTTS58%78%36%
Clean Sheet24%13%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi717
71%
2.4
71+6
1.1
29%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.1
-
2GarejiGareji711
43%
1.6
109+1
2.7
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
3Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti711
43%
1.6
109+1
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
4Odishi 1919Odishi 1919711
43%
1.6
76+1
1.9
57%
43%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.9
-
5SamtrediaSamtredia710
43%
1.4
1312+1
3.6
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
6SioniSioni710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
57%
43%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7ShturmiShturmi78
29%
1.1
46-2
1.4
43%
29%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.60.9
-
8GoriGori77
29%
1.0
88+0
2.3
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti75
0%
0.7
79-2
2.3
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili75
14%
0.7
49-5
1.9
71%
29%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.3
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches