PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Telavi vs Gareji Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-0
Telavi
Telavi
Vs
42%
29%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Telavi and Gareji face off in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2, with Telavi unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 0-0 draw against Gareji. This recent form note sets the stage for a closely contested match. The model predicts a Home win, with a 42% probability, making it the favourite match result. The expected total goals stand at 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 14%.

Telavi have scored an average of 1 goal at home, while conceding 1.33 goals against stronger opponents. Gareji, on the other hand, have scored 0.67 goals away from home, while conceding 1.67 goals against weaker opponents.

The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 76.1% probability and a notable edge of 8%, making it the model's top pick. Over 1.5 is also a selection, with a 72.2% probability. The model's suggested picks are as follows: Under 3.5 (76.1%), Over 1.5 (72.2%), Home win (42%), Draw (29%), Away win (29%). Telavi have a 42% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing.

Results analysis

The unbeaten run of Telavi in their last 5 matches came to an end as they drew 0-0 with Gareji, a result that extended the away side's streak of draws. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect as Telavi failed to break down their opponents. The pre-match favourite, as predicted by the model, came up short, with a probability of 42% of winning. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 76.1%, while the selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, with a probability of 72.2%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Telavi win✗ Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied 46.0% · @ 1.96
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.02
Dafabet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Draw✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.07
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
BetVictor
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
3.08
Gareji win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.65
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.74
Marathonbet
3.66
10Bet
3.65

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TelaviTelavi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D12L21W30W11D11D10W20W10W10WA·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12H·SAM06/12A·MES10/12H·MES14/12H·GOR30/05A·SHT13/06H·ODI17/06H·ARA22/06← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.231.191.121.211.36
vs Stronger (18)1.061.440.801.301.381.62
vs Similar (11)1.451.002.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D14L04L12L02L21W32W31W00D12LH·TEL21/11A·GAG25/11H·SAB30/11A·TOR06/12H·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.601.291.881.541.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.321.681.141.931.551.36
vs Weaker (5)1.801.202.001.671.500.50
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.2%
@ 1.41+7.9%
Under 1.5
27.8%
@ 2.54-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Under
Superbet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.54
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.28+4.9%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.54-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.38
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Superbet
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.9%
@ 4.13+2.1%
Under 3.5
76.1%
@ 1.15-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
@ 2.01+5.6%
No
48.6%
@ 1.69-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
William Hil
1.95
No
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
BetVictor
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.83+6.8%
1-0
10.2%@ 5.61+2.8%
0-0 ✓
9.6%@ 6.79+3.5%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.23+3.7%
0-1
8.0%@ 7.91+2.7%
2-0
7.9%@ 7.61+2.4%
1-2
7.0%@ 11.57+3.4%
0-2
5.1%@ 15.57+2.4%
Telavi goals ↓
Gareji goals →
01234
09.6%8.0%5.1%1.9%0.5%
110%14%7.0%2.6%0.7%
27.9%8.8%4.8%1.8%0.5%
33.6%4.0%2.2%0.8%0.2%
41.3%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Gareji goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Telavi is 0.38 points better than Gareji in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Telavi is 0.50 goals worse than Gareji in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Telavi is 0.88 goals better than Gareji in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TelaviTelavi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D01L11D10W01L01L00D10W10W00DA·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12H·SAM06/12A·MES10/12H·MES14/12H·GOR30/05A·SHT13/06H·ODI17/06H·ARA22/06← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.560.690.640.71
vs Stronger (18)0.670.830.500.700.881.00
vs Similar (11)0.550.550.800.800.330.33
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D02L02L00D01L01L20W21W00D12LH·TEL21/11A·GAG25/11H·SAB30/11A·TOR06/12H·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.650.880.310.46
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.360.720.500.930.180.45
vs Weaker (5)1.200.601.330.671.000.50
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TelaviTelavi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D10W20W10W10W10W10W00D10WA·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12H·SAM06/12A·MES10/12H·MES14/12H·GOR30/05A·SHT13/06H·ODI17/06H·ARA22/06← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.620.440.570.64
vs Stronger (18)0.390.610.300.600.500.62
vs Similar (11)0.910.451.200.200.670.67
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D12L02L12L01L20W12L10W00D00DH·TEL21/11A·GAG25/11H·SAB30/11A·TOR06/12H·SPA10/12A·SPA14/12H·SAM30/05A·GOR13/06H·SHT17/06H·ODI22/06← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.900.651.001.230.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.960.960.641.001.360.91
vs Weaker (5)0.600.600.671.000.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.1%1.15
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
---2.1%✓ Hit
Over 1.572.2%1.41
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
-+7.9%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
TEL wins
3
Draws
0
GAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Telavi vs Gareji · H/A from TEL
DateH/AGameScore
21/11/25AGareji Vs TEL3-3
13/09/25HTEL Vs Gareji0-0
16/05/25AGareji Vs TEL0-0
06/04/25HTEL Vs Gareji1-0

TelaviTelavi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/26HTEL Vs Aragvi Dusheti1-0
17/06/26HTEL Vs Odishi 19191-0
13/06/26AShturmi Vs TEL0-2
30/05/26HTEL Vs Gori1-0
14/12/25HTEL Vs Meshakhte1-1
10/12/25AMeshakhte Vs TEL1-1
06/12/25HTEL Vs Samgurali3-0
01/12/25AGagra Vs TEL1-2
25/11/25HTEL Vs Dinamo Batumi1-2
21/11/25AGareji Vs TEL3-3

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/26HGAR Vs Odishi 19191-2
17/06/26HGAR Vs Shturmi0-0
13/06/26AGori Vs GAR1-3
30/05/26HGAR Vs Samtredia3-2
14/12/25ASpaeri Vs GAR1-2
10/12/25HGAR Vs Spaeri0-2
06/12/25ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs GAR2-1
30/11/25HGAR Vs Saburtalo0-4
25/11/25AGagra Vs GAR4-1
21/11/25HGAR Vs Telavi3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Telavi
Telavi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.20
HomeWDWWW1.46
AwayLDWDW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%25%
AVG goals2.442.272.62
Over 1.5 %64%62%67%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %22%23%21%
Scored1.061.270.83
Conceded1.381.001.79
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet30%46%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.20
HomeLLWDL1.08
AwayWLLWW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%23%33%
AVG goals2.862.882.83
Over 1.5 %74%69%79%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %44%46%42%
Scored1.421.381.46
Conceded1.441.501.38
BTTS64%58%71%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches