Telavi and Gareji face off in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2, with Telavi unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 0-0 draw against Gareji. This recent form note sets the stage for a closely contested match. The model predicts a Home win, with a 42% probability, making it the favourite match result. The expected total goals stand at 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 14%.
Telavi have scored an average of 1 goal at home, while conceding 1.33 goals against stronger opponents. Gareji, on the other hand, have scored 0.67 goals away from home, while conceding 1.67 goals against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 76.1% probability and a notable edge of 8%, making it the model's top pick. Over 1.5 is also a selection, with a 72.2% probability. The model's suggested picks are as follows: Under 3.5 (76.1%), Over 1.5 (72.2%), Home win (42%), Draw (29%), Away win (29%). Telavi have a 42% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing.
The unbeaten run of Telavi in their last 5 matches came to an end as they drew 0-0 with Gareji, a result that extended the away side's streak of draws. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect as Telavi failed to break down their opponents. The pre-match favourite, as predicted by the model, came up short, with a probability of 42% of winning. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 76.1%, while the selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, with a probability of 72.2%.
Telavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.12 | 1.21 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 1.06 | 1.44 | 0.80 | 1.30 | 1.38 | 1.62 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.45 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Gareji| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.29 | 1.88 | 1.54 | 1.23 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.32 | 1.68 | 1.14 | 1.93 | 1.55 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Gareji goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Telavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Gareji| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.88 | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.36 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.60 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Telavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.39 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.91 | 0.45 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Gareji| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.65 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76.1% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | -2.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.2% | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.40 | - | +7.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/25 | A | 3-3 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/25 | H | 1-0 |
Telavi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 01/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/11/25 | A | 3-3 |
Gareji| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 14/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/12/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 25/11/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 21/11/25 | H | 3-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Telavi | 8 | 17 | 62% | 2.1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.4 | 38% | 12% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Gareji | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 2.8 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | Samtredia | 8 | 13 | 50% | 1.6 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Sioni | 8 | 13 | 50% | 1.6 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 2.8 | 62% | 50% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 5 | Aragvi Dusheti | 8 | 12 | 38% | 1.5 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 2.6 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Odishi 1919 | 8 | 11 | 38% | 1.4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.0 | 62% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Gori | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 8 | Shturmi | 8 | 8 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1.8 | 50% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | Kolkheti Poti | 8 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 2.2 | 75% | 38% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Merani Martvili | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.0 | 75% | 38% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |