Telavi’s defensive solidity is the headline, having kept just 0.83 goals per game at home against similarly ranked opponents, while conceding only 0.83. Kolkheti Poti, on the road, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded versus the same tier, suggesting a tight contest. The model favours a Telavi victory, with a 57% chance of a win, 30% for a draw and 14% for a Kolkheti win. The expected total is a modest 2.0 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 18.4% probability. Telavi’s recent form shows a win after a defeat, whereas Kolkheti comes off a draw. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Under 5.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.0%), Home +2 handicap (96.5%), Under 4.5 (94.9%) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.5%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Telavi win
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti win
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.06
0.81
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.31
0.56
0.89
1.57
1.86
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolkheti Poti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.93
1.00
1.88
1.21
2.00
vs Stronger (15)
1.07
2.33
1.29
2.57
0.88
2.12
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.54
0.75
1.38
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.8%
Under 1.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.6%
Under 2.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.8%
Under 3.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
34.1%
No
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
18.3%
0-0
15.0%
2-0
13.6%
1-1
12.3%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
3.6%
Telavi goals ↓
Kolkheti Poti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
6.9%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
18%
12%
3.2%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
7.8%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
3
6.3%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
4
2.2%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Kolkheti Poti goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Telavi is 1.38 points better than Kolkheti Poti in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Telavi and Kolkheti Poti are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Telavi is 0.88 goals better than Kolkheti Poti in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Telavi or Draw
85.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
30%
14%
covers Telavi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Telavi or Kolkheti Poti
70.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
30%
14%
covers Telavi + Kolkheti Poti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
44.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
30%
14%
covers Draw + Kolkheti Poti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Telavi over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Telavi, so a minus line means Telavi give that many goals of a start and Kolkheti Poti receive them. At -1, Telavi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Telavi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Telavi)
Telavi -2
11.2%
Draw -2
17.6%
Kolkheti Poti +2
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Telavi)
Telavi -1
28.8%
Draw -1
27.2%
Kolkheti Poti +1
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Telavi)
Telavi +1
85.8%
Draw +1
10.6%
Kolkheti Poti -1
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Telavi)
Telavi +2
96.4%
Draw +2
3.0%
Kolkheti Poti -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.75
0.22
0.56
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolkheti Poti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.62
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.20
0.71
1.00
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.50
0.38
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.17
0.17
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolkheti Poti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.38
1.25
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.13
0.57
1.57
0.62
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.08
0.25
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Merani Martvili