Telavi is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 65% chance of victory at home. The model rates them highly due to their strong home form, scoring an average of 2 goals per match at home, while conceding just 0.8 goals. In contrast, Merani Martvili have struggled on the road, scoring only 0.38 goals per match away from home and conceding 1.54 goals.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 1.8 goals and a most likely score of 1-0, with a probability of 22.7%. The most likely total number of goals is 2. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 65% chance of occurring.
The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals, with a 88.4% chance of occurring, and BTTS No, with a 76% chance. Telavi clean sheet is also a suggested pick, with a 70.1% chance. The model also suggests Under 2.5 goals, with a 71.8% chance. The home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 8%.
Results analysis
Telavi’s unbeaten run extended with a 1-0 win over Merani Martvili, confirming the model’s home-win pick at 66 % confidence. The final score matched the predicted 1-0 outcome, and the model’s favourite was right. Every suggested selection also landed: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 100 %, Under 7.5 at 99.9 %, Under 6.5 at 99.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 %, Under 5.5 at 98.8 %, Home +2 handicap at 98.8 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4 %. The match stayed low-scoring, with Telavi’s 1.43 average goals per game and Merani Martvili’s 0.38 proving the model’s low-goal expectations accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Telavi win✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.76
Edge
+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Dafabet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.19
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Merani Martvili win✗ Miss
7.3%
Avg Implied 20.4% · @ 4.42
Edge
-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.66
BetVictor
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Dafabet
4.50
Betfair
4.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.10
1.06
0.94
1.21
1.29
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
1.24
0.60
1.00
1.43
1.57
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.47
1.27
1.27
0.53
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.84
1.40
1.33
1.25
0.38
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
56.5%
@ 1.39-8.7%
Under 1.5
43.5%
@ 2.60+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.59
Marathonbet
2.59
1xBet
2.59
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.8%
@ 2.24-12.3%
Under 2.5
71.2%
@ 1.56+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Pinnacle
2.28
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.65
BetVictor
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.0%
@ 4.10-10.0%
Under 3.5
88.0%
@ 1.16+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
3.90
Under
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
23.7%
@ 2.09-20.3%
No
76.3%
@ 1.64+20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.10
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
No
Superbet
1.66
BetVictor
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
22.7%@ 5.19+14.7%
2-0
17.9%@ 6.70+11.7%
0-0
16.3%@ 7.44+10.7%
3-0
9.0%@ 12.00+5.6%
1-1
9.0%@ 6.16+2.3%
2-1
6.2%@ 7.88+0.9%
0-1
4.6%@ 9.44+0.2%
4-0
3.4%@ 27.00+1.9%
Telavi goals ↓
Merani Martvili goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
4.6%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
1
23%
9.0%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2
18%
6.2%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
3
9.0%
3.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
4
3.4%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Merani Martvili goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Telavi is 1.50 points better than Merani Martvili in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Telavi is 0.38 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Telavi is 1.00 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Telavi or Draw✓ Hit
92.7%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.14
Edge
+12.3%
66%
26%
7%
covers Telavi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Telavi or Merani Martvili✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied 71.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.7%
66%
26%
7%
covers Telavi + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw or Merani Martvili✗ Miss
33.7%
Avg Implied 47.7% · @ 1.92
Edge
-14.0%
66%
26%
7%
covers Draw + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.15
BetVictor
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Telavi over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.1%
@ 1.20+2.2%
Under
21.9%
@ 3.78-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.20
Under
1xBet
3.78
Telavi over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.9%
@ 2.11+1.2%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.64-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Telavi over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
@ 1.68-25.3%
Under
70.6%
@ 2.02+25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 4.50-15.5%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.15+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
100.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Telavi, so a minus line means Telavi give that many goals of a start and Merani Martvili receive them. At -1, Telavi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Telavi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Telavi)Actual: Merani Martvili
Telavi -2
15.6%
@ 6.95+2.9%
Draw -2
21.2%
@ 5.15+4.1%
Merani Martvili +2
63.2%
@ 1.26-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.95
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Away
Marathonbet
1.26
Handicap -1 (Telavi)Actual: Draw
Telavi -1
36.8%
@ 3.35+10.4%
Draw -1
29.4%
@ 3.29+2.6%
Merani Martvili +1
33.7%
@ 1.89-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.20
Draw
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Away
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
Handicap +1 (Telavi)Actual: Telavi
Telavi +1
92.7%
Draw +1
6.1%
Merani Martvili -1
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Telavi)Actual: Telavi
Telavi +2
98.8%
Draw +2
1.1%
Merani Martvili -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.44
0.62
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.71
0.30
0.60
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.80
0.80
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.15
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.8%
@ 1.48+10.0%
Under 0.5
28.2%
@ 2.39-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 3.25+3.6%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.27-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Betfair
3.20
Under
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 8.50-0.7%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Under
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
54.5%
@ 1.90+6.3%
Under
45.5%
@ 1.76-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Telavi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 2.97-6.2%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.31+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.97
Under
1xBet
1.31
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.62
0.31
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.53
0.30
0.40
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
1.20
0.20
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.80
0.67
0.58
0.23
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.8%
Under 0.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.1%
Under 1.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.1%
Under 2.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
95.2%
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
+15.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
92.7%
1.14
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
88.0%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.1%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.6%
1.27
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
1.48
BetVictor
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
+10.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
71.2%
1.56
Bet365
1.65
BetVictor
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Telavi clean sheet
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →