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Telavi vs Samgurali Result & Analysis

Date: 06/12/2025
Time: 09:30
Final 3-0
Telavi
Telavi
Vs
36%
28%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Telavi win✓ Hit
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samgurali win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

TelaviTelavi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L02L10W22D03L02L33D12L21WH·GAG27/09A·SAM03/10H·SAB17/10A·KOL22/10H·TOR27/10A·DIN02/11H·DIL08/11A·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.630.931.400.931.87
vs Stronger (20)0.951.550.731.451.221.67
vs Similar (10)0.901.801.501.250.502.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W32W21W41W11D02L24L12L40WA·DIN28/09H·TEL03/10A·KOL18/10H·DIN22/10A·GAR28/10H·GAG02/11A·SAB08/11H·TOR22/11A·DIL26/11H·DIN30/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.531.671.001.532.07
vs Stronger (18)1.281.721.331.111.222.33
vs Similar (12)2.081.252.170.832.001.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.3%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
7.7%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
6.1%
2-0
6.1%
Telavi goals ↓
Samgurali goals →
01234
07.7%7.7%6.1%2.8%1.0%
17.6%13%8.3%3.8%1.3%
26.1%8.3%5.7%2.6%0.9%
32.8%3.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%
40.9%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Samgurali goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saburtalo
2.22
Dila
2.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.58
Spaeri
1.50
Gagra
1.19
Dinamo Batumi
1.19
Samgurali
1.17
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Gareji
0.97
Kolkheti Poti
0.61
Telavi is 0.17 points worse than Samgurali in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.17).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dila
1.75
Saburtalo
1.67
Spaeri
1.50
Samgurali
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.42
Gagra
1.22
Gareji
1.13
Dinamo Batumi
1.11
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.92
Telavi is 0.50 goals worse than Samgurali in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Saburtalo
0.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.14
Samgurali
1.47
Gareji
1.50
Gagra
1.53
Telavi
1.61
Dinamo Batumi
1.64
Kolkheti Poti
1.97
Telavi is 0.13 goals worse than Samgurali in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.47).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

TelaviTelavi

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SamguraliSamgurali

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

TelaviTelavi

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (32)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (18)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (27)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TelaviTelavi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L00D12L02L01L22D01L11DH·GAG27/09A·SAM03/10H·SAB17/10A·KOL22/10H·TOR27/10A·DIN02/11H·DIL08/11A·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.470.670.531.00
vs Stronger (20)0.550.800.360.640.781.00
vs Similar (10)0.400.900.750.750.171.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D12L20W11D00D00D11D02L20WA·DIN28/09H·TEL03/10A·KOL18/10H·DIN22/10A·GAR28/10H·GAG02/11A·SAB08/11H·TOR22/11A·DIL26/11H·DIN30/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.930.270.601.00
vs Stronger (18)0.720.610.890.330.560.89
vs Similar (12)0.830.671.000.170.671.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TelaviTelavi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L01L10W10W01L01L11D11D10WH·GAG27/09A·SAM03/10H·SAB17/10A·KOL22/10H·TOR27/10A·DIN02/11H·DIL08/11A·GAR21/11H·DIN25/11A·GAG01/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.800.470.730.400.87
vs Stronger (20)0.400.750.360.820.440.67
vs Similar (10)0.500.900.750.500.331.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W20W01L30W11D02L13L10W20WA·DIN28/09H·TEL03/10A·KOL18/10H·DIN22/10A·GAR28/10H·GAG02/11A·SAB08/11H·TOR22/11A·DIL26/11H·DIN30/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.900.730.730.931.07
vs Stronger (18)0.561.110.440.780.671.44
vs Similar (12)1.250.581.170.671.330.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
TEL wins
2
Draws
4
SAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Telavi vs Samgurali · H/A from TEL
DateH/AGameScore
03/10/25ASamgurali Vs TEL1-0
29/05/25HTEL Vs Samgurali1-3
19/04/25ASamgurali Vs TEL7-0
27/11/24HTEL Vs Samgurali0-0
22/09/24ASamgurali Vs TEL2-2
24/05/24HTEL Vs Samgurali2-1
07/04/24ASamgurali Vs TEL2-1
21/10/23HTEL Vs Samgurali2-1

TelaviTelavi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/12/25AGagra Vs TEL1-2
25/11/25HTEL Vs Dinamo Batumi1-2
21/11/25AGareji Vs TEL3-3
08/11/25HTEL Vs Dila0-2
02/11/25ADinamo Tbilisi Vs TEL3-0
27/10/25HTEL Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-2
22/10/25AKolkheti Poti Vs TEL0-1
17/10/25HTEL Vs Saburtalo0-2
03/10/25ASamgurali Vs TEL1-0
27/09/25HTEL Vs Gagra4-0

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/25HSAM Vs Dinamo Batumi4-0
26/11/25ADila Vs SAM2-1
22/11/25HSAM Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-4
08/11/25ASaburtalo Vs SAM2-0
02/11/25HSAM Vs Gagra1-1
28/10/25AGareji Vs SAM1-4
22/10/25HSAM Vs Dinamo Tbilisi2-1
18/10/25AKolkheti Poti Vs SAM2-3
03/10/25HSAM Vs Telavi1-0
28/09/25ADinamo Batumi Vs SAM1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Telavi
Telavi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW0.94
HomeWLDLL1.12
AwayLWLDW0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals2.622.362.88
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.001.160.84
Conceded1.621.202.04
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet22%36%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.26
HomeWWDLW1.50
AwayWWWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%25%
AVG goals3.063.003.12
Over 1.5 %80%69%92%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.621.811.42
Conceded1.441.191.71
BTTS60%46%75%
Clean Sheet22%35%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SaburtaloSaburtalo3680
67%
2.2
6024+36
2.3
67%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.70.7
-
2DilaDila3678
69%
2.2
6335+28
2.7
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.81.0
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3663
50%
1.8
6341+22
2.9
78%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.81.1
-
4Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3657
42%
1.6
5134+17
2.4
72%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3131.40.9
-
5GagraGagra3643
33%
1.2
4455-11
2.8
83%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.5
-
6Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3643
31%
1.2
4059-19
2.8
83%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.11.6
-
7SamguraliSamgurali3642
33%
1.2
5453+1
3.0
81%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.5
-
8TelaviTelavi3838
24%
1.0
3861-23
2.6
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
9GarejiGareji3837
21%
1.0
4357-14
2.6
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
10Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3622
14%
0.6
3371-38
2.9
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11SpaeriSpaeri23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12MeshakhteMeshakhte22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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